The tail wagging the dog II

The above title rings a negative connotation. That’s why it is imperative to develop the discipline to forward-think and not fall into the trap. For example, beyond “analysis” is “analytics.”

Let’s drill that down: Is “Pinoy abilidad” the genesis of our instinct to analyze but not forward-think? In other words, “necessity is the mother of invention.” The analogy comes from the writer’s Eastern European experience.

Being the poorest country on the continent, people would matter-of-factly improvise. “Because we have no choice. Poor as we are, we won’t stop for a moment to consider other options we assume are unaffordable.”

Think about the instances when we assumed “Pinoy abilidad” was the answer to our predicament – because “poor” as we are, other options are unaffordable.

And they go the breadth. From import-substitution to the OFW phenomenon to the comprehensive agrarian reform to LGUs. And to push the envelope on the latter, why not Federalism?

Consider: Why did we not develop, beyond the jeepney and tricycle, an efficient public transportation system? And beyond a service economy, an industrial one? Beyond coconut and copra, a portfolio of high value-added industrial and consumer products? And from assembling computer chips to regional manufacturing of electronic devices?

Is it a surprise why our tycoons (cum oligarchy) haven’t progressed beyond rent-seeking – as in franchises or monopolies or government infrastructure projects – to world-class, innovative, and globally competitive enterprises?

As the blog argues, our caste system blinded us to figure out and traverse poverty to prosperity. Because “poor” as we are, we accepted the “hierarchy and paternalism” as givens?

To add insult to injury, we take it against Juan de la Cruz if he aspires for life’s comforts. And we have a name for it, consumerism.

That is how we resurrected Padre Damaso’s “absolute knowledge” – i.e., he holds the keys to heaven, no different from the scribes and Pharisees. Juan de la Cruz has no choice between good and evil. Yet, human as he is, he has a hierarchy of needs to adapt to this dynamic – and interdependent – universe.

Surprise, surprise! We didn’t develop “personal responsibility.” It is the converse of paternalism – as in sheltered.

Translation: That is why we are yet to demonstrate the capacity for self-government. And instead, we love and submit to tyranny – and impunity. Worse, we mistake it for nationalism and sovereignty and blind us to the imperative of interdependence, the very nature of this universe. Recall the photosynthesis phenomenon.

Do we wonder why in higher education – and the economy – we are the regional laggard? And we just added to our infamy, the pariah nation.

Moreover, given how “sabog” we are, we fall into the crab mentality – i.e., confuse the trivial many from the vital few and fail to internalize Pareto. 

And here’s the spiel again: We lack development experience that comes from honing forward-thinking skills – and benchmarking and learning from others. And when we can’t forward-think, we can’t prioritize. And when we don’t prioritize, we suffer from sub-optimized efforts and outcomes.

In sum, unwittingly, we let the tail wag the dog.

Let’s restate the challenge we face: To thrive in the 21st century, we must be a world-class, innovative, and globally competitive economy.

And here’s where we are:

“THE National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the agriculture sector had not shown improvements commensurate to the funding support.

"The observation is that we have been putting hundreds of billions in agriculture over many years. Why is it (that the sector has not helped) farmers raise the income ladder, and agriculture production growth should be at least 2% (has not been) achieved?

“This is not only about the amount of money in the budget; it is how we allocate and use them.” [“Agriculture sector fails to show improvement despite billions of pesos in funding — Chua,” Charmaine A. Tadalan, BusinessWorld, 17th Sep 2020]

What we need is to develop the discipline to forward-think. Consider: Thailand and Vietnam, together with the US, are the top rice exporters, for example.

And for Vietnam, they see the challenge spelled out as “the development of a sustainable food value chain. Especially to “very substantially modernize the domestic and export-oriented rice value chains.

“The object is to realize significant advances in technical efficiencies at different levels, and promote the introduction and spread of an ethos focused on greater (environmental) sustainability, product quality, and customer service.

“While the country addressed sustainable production and trade for some higher-value commodities, the rice value chain has generally been neglected.” [www.mdpi.com]

In other words, they are looking at creating an ecosystem that is a virtuous circle, from domestic to exports, from productivity to sustainability, from product quality to customer service.

There is an emphasis on both the supply side and the demand side. Vietnam is beyond inward-looking, into outward-looking. It responds to the fundamentals of Marketing, i.e., the consumer has a need, and it is in satisfying this requirement that the marketer derives compensation. This compensation paves the way for the enterprise to advance technical efficiencies at different levels.

If the blog continues to sound like a broken record, let’s revisit its genesis, from economic data in the 2007-08 period. Where were we against Vietnam then?

Consistent with the vital few or Pareto principle, the blog looked at very few indicators between us and our neighbors, i.e., GDP, Total Investments, FDIs, Exports, Imports, External Debt.

2007-2008	Philippines	Malaysia	Thailand	Vietnam
GDP $B	144.1	186.5	245.7	70.02
Total Investments  %	14.2%	21.8%	26.8%	40.0%
Foreign Direct Investments $B	18.4	86.31	80.84	33.74
Foreign Direct Investments  %	12.8%	46.3%	32.9%	48.2%
Exports $B	49.32	181.2	151	48.07
Imports $B	57.56	145.7	125	52.28
External Debt $B	61.83	53.45	58.5	21.69

 

Specific to Vietnam, as early as the above period, it was already apparent that they would leave us in the dust.

Their GDP was less than half of PH, yet today their poverty rate is less than a third of ours, i.e., they have broken the back of poverty. And it is not surprising given their levels of investments and FDIs. And their latest reported exports are over four times ours.

In other words, if we were forward-thinking at least a dozen years ago, we could have arrested instead of falling into the “Dutch disease,” i.e., celebrating the OFW phenomenon. We must figure out how to move up to an industrial economy like our neighbors – the Asian Tigers, Malaysia, Thailand, and China.

In a previous posting, the blog discussed the advantage gained by winners. And we must recognize our neighbors as winners. Worse, they will continue to distance themselves, i.e., it will be harder to break the Philippine poverty line.

Why? FDIs are finite – especially that come with the requisite technologies – that we need to give us a quantum leap in national income or GDP.

Let’s hold it right there. 

We appear unable to internalize that we measure a nation’s wealth by the income it generates. We keep looking at the failings of the US. And so, we are mixing apples and oranges and want to use happiness as a measure. 

Yet, we also know that the Soviet empire, once a superpower like the US, is now extinct. And it was the absence of wealth that brought it down. It put all its eggs in one basket, i.e., military enterprise, instead of industrial power.

Compare that to China. Wealth made it the superpower we know today. And if the US has its failings, so does China. 

Ergo: the conclusion that wealth doesn’t matter is way off base.

That’s why the blog never tires of speaking to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Humankind has basic or physiological needs that must be satisfied or fall behind in human development. They will not attain real adulthood and be a contributing member of society. Recall Bondying.

Quantum leap (in national income or GDP.) That is what we need. Not a drop in the bucket here and there. That is why the very idea of Federalism undermines a crying need for the Philippines.

Sadly, that is not intuitive for us to recognize and internalize, especially given the crab mentality.

We are deep in the abyss. And it stands to reason why we are in denial.

Consider: When the blog was new, the JFC launched Arangkada – to aggressively raise investment and employment in the Philippines – and geared up to present the initiative to the Aquino administration. That was ten years ago.

In short, we will be wasting two administrations yet nowhere near becoming an industrial economy. We don’t need a seer to tell us how the future will play out.

Yet, in 2014, we celebrated what we saw as “an uptick in manufacturing.” It is classic “analysis,” but missing the ”analytics,” or the absence of forward-thinking. 

See above, where we were against our neighbors in the 2007-08 period, especially Vietnam. And Vietnam is poised to overtake even Singapore, recognizing the latter is limited in its ability to be a significant manufacturing-industrial hub.

In other words, we remain a service-consumption economy, and to celebrate a manufacturing uptick is a mirage. Or was it human nature, as in denial?

Some may remember the writer did restructuring in a Fortune 500 company. Given how dysfunctional the Philippine enterprise is, we must pursue a rethink of our instincts and world view.

In short, we need to redesign and reengineer the new Philippines. We can no longer keep resorting to patchwork. It is an enormous enterprise to respond to incremental efforts.

Yet, the way forward need not create an upheaval. For example, as Boo Chanco shared, their group has been doing Zoom meetings to figure out how to move forward. But it has to be beyond the pandemic. We must recognize that reality does not come in isolation. Challenges are a continuum.

And to miss the forward view is to start on the wrong foot. And it explains how we became the regional laggard. For example, (1) we set ourselves to be one, and (2) took on the risk in the South China Sea.

They are both human-made, not fate or destiny.

For example, “we have been putting hundreds of billions in agriculture over many years.” And we will fall into the trap of insanity if we keep to our instincts and world view.

We must also rethink and reengineer our monetary and fiscal interventions. That is why the blog keeps plugging Vietnam.

Given exports are our nemesis, incremental thinking and the crab mentality cannot be our mindset. We must figure out the vital few from the trivial many and drive monetary and fiscal interventions aggressively. Time is of the essence.

In other words, incentives must target the vital few, including taxation and infrastructure development. For example, attract a global market leader in electronic devices within our top exports’ product categories – i.e., over 64%. That is where we will get the biggest bang for the buck.

That is why we need “analytics” beyond “analysis.” We must be prepared to prioritize and de-prioritize. That is why LGUs and Federalism are a stumbling block. We must always go for the biggest bang for the buck for a nation with minimal resources.

That is how to raise tax revenues to fund rapidly our growing social needs. And that includes replicating the Pearl River Delta economic development zone.

But then again, we lack development experience, and that will not be intuitive. And we will want to fight poverty as a priority. Sadly, that’s why we’re in bed with the oligarchy and political patronage.

And that is why we can’t get over, “the tail wagging the dog.”

Gising bayan!

“Here is a land in which a few are spectacularly rich while the masses remain abjectly poor. And where freedom and its blessings are a reality for a minority and an illusion for the many. Here is a land consecrated to democracy but run by an entrenched plutocracy, dedicated to equality but mired in an archaic system of caste. 

“But the fault was chiefly their own. Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“True social reform has little to do with politics. To unmoor ourselves from the burdens of the past, we must be engaged in the act of continual and conscious self-renewal. All men are partially buried in the grave of custom. Even virtue is no longer such if it is stagnant.

“Change begins when we finally choose to examine critically and then recalibrate the ill-serving codes and conventions handed down to us, often unquestioned, by the past and its power structures. It is essentially an act of imagination first.” [David Henry Thoreau; American essayist, poet, and philosopher; 1817-1862]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development is informed by a people’s worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 201

Desensitized

Is Juan de la Cruz utterly desensitized to accept his fate as “regional laggard”? What about our culture of impunity? That he is at the mercy of the hierarchy, and paternalism is his lifeline?

That is how much this nation wasted in human development and capital. How come?

Let’s hold it right there.

Because winners, on the other hand, gain an advantage – from a “positive spirit to disciplined focus to mutual respect among members to lots of practice on the details to lasting support systems,” among others. [“Ten reasons why winners keep on winning, aside from skill,” Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Harvard Business Review, 1st Aug 2012]

And here we are, the elite class, professing “absolute knowledge” to add insult to injury. How come? We don’t gain the advantage as winners do, yet we assume otherwise. 

Ever wonder why the blog references Padre Damaso? As if on cue, a young journalist organized lunch at Pia y Damaso in Greenbelt 5 to meet up with the writer during the family’s annual homecoming a few years ago.

Consider: “Countries at UN should be bold, principled on PH,” Laila Matar, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 14th Sep 2020; Laila Matar is the deputy United Nations director for Human Rights Watch, based in Geneva.

“The boldness of a small country with no ax to grind against the Philippine government — acting solely out of its commitment to human rights—elicited widespread admiration from rights advocates everywhere.

“Last year in Geneva, Iceland put the Philippines in the hot seat at the United Nations Human Rights Council for its murderous ‘war on drugs.’

“Iceland wasn’t fazed by President Duterte’s popularity or by Malacañang’s threats. It simply stood against the brutality of the ‘drug war’ and the deaths of thousands of Filipinos — and demanded international scrutiny. When the council convenes its session today, other countries will do well to follow Iceland’s principled example.”

Is this another reminder of Padre Damaso? That he is omnipotent? 

“Padre Dámaso is a fictional character in Rizal’s novel, Noli Me Tángere (Touch Me Not or ‘Social Cancer’.)

“It is a controversial and anticlerical novel that exposed the Spanish friars’ abuses and the Spanish elite in the colonial Philippines during the 19th century.

“The novel, according to Rizal, represented the state of Philippine society under Spanish colonial rule. It was a liberal-nationalist wake-up call for the people of the Philippines.

"Dámaso was later revealed to be the biological father of María Clara. María Clara's mother, Doña Pía Alba, and Don Santiago de los Santos had been trying to conceive a child when Padre Dámaso raped Doña Pia." [Wikipedia]

Has Juan de la Cruz been desensitized that we cry “sovereignty and nationalism” against Iceland and the UNHRC?

And have we in the elite class, unwittingly become the present-day Padre Damaso?

How much more poverty can we accept just outside our gated communities? Or even inside. Those caddies are at our beck and call, on their toes the moment our cars pull by the “drop bag” area. To be treated like royalty is desensitizing, indeed.

Consider: “What do you see (?),” Gary Burnison, Korn Ferry CEO, email, 13th Sept 2020. “Is the world getting smaller, or is it our minds?

“Look at the photo on the right, what do you see? [In the original email, there is this photo.] Do you notice an ‘elderly’ man, ambling, carrying something in his right hand—a cane, perhaps? Narrow perceptions, though, can be far from reality.

“We need a corrective lens. I can remember when I was growing up in Kansas, and there was a solar eclipse. Every kid heard the same warning—at school, at home: don’t look at the sun!

“So, when my uncle told me he could show me the eclipse, I wasn’t sure what to expect. Then he took out a tall paper cup and used a small nail to punch a round hole in the bottom.

“Standing on the street, he turned the cup upside down, used the hole like an aperture in a camera to project the solar eclipse image on a piece of paper. I was amazed! That tiny pinhole was the gateway to the entire universe.

“It’s analogous to what we’re experiencing in today’s shrinking world—and we’re trying to peer through a pinhole. We need to adjust our lens—tapping Google Earth as we zoom out before zooming in. Otherwise, we’ll never imagine tomorrow’s promise when tomorrow, at first, might myopically appear like today.

“Over the past few months, the world hasn’t become smaller—but perhaps our perspective has.

“Look at the picture again. The man isn’t just walking down the street. He is a jazz saxophonist, making music for the benefit of others.

“To truly see the entire picture, we must escape the attic of our minds. As much as we hate to admit it, we are quick to judge and make assumptions. It takes about seven seconds for us to form an opinion about others—even in job interviews. Is it fair? Not. But it is a sad truth about human nature.

“To widen our lens, the starting point should be humility, which can serve as our guide. We see beyond our insularity into a bigger world—a world that’s not about us. It’s about others.”

On the other hand, consider: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism that we rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.

What do we see? Do we see Juan de la Cruz as impoverished given he makes a fraction of what we do? And so, do we view the world through our lenses – e.g., the need for self-actualization, as the desire for happiness – while Juan de la Cruz needs something more basic and physiological?

But his chances are next to none if we take our national income as “pwede na ‘yan” even if we assure him that the Philippines will be a middle-income economy sometime in the future. He will be no different from a malnourished adolescent.

How can we take the status quo as a given when we know full well over 10 million Filipinos had to choose the fate of an OFW?

Are we desensitized by the reality of Juan de la Cruz that we can brag about a strong economy driven by OFW remittances? 

And because of this windfall, we can confidently look into the future because we in the elite class don’t have to suffer the social costs these families do? 

Let’s pause once more.

Think about how our caste system rendered us blind to the poverty we claim we are fighting.

We cannot be an island unto ourselves and pretend to traverse the road from poverty to prosperity as our neighbors did. They begged for Western money and technology and then awed their benefactors with their tiger economies. In contrast, we perpetuate the oligarchy and political patronage.

As the blog has argued, this universe is one of dynamism and interdependence, and it applies even to wealthy nations. And that principles must define norms of conduct. The operative word is principles.

Unsurprisingly, The Economist (5th Sep 2020) asserts, while acknowledging Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains strong, his government has gained a dangerous reputation for incompetence.”

Meanwhile, “Tony Blair and John Major, former British prime ministers, castigated the current government for ‘embarrassing the UK’ with proposed Brexit legislation that would override parts of the withdrawal agreement struck with the European Union.” [The Economist, Espresso, 14th Sep 2020]

Why the concern? Because even with the recent UK-Japan trade deal, it remains imperative for the UK to win an EU pact post-Brexit. [The Editorial Board, Financial Times, 13th Sep 2020]

Translation: Even a wealthy nation isn’t exempt from interdependence, the very nature of this universe.

Let’s reprise the following spiel:

“Over the past few months, the world hasn’t become smaller—but perhaps our perspective has.

“To truly see the entire picture, we must escape the attic of our minds.

“To widen our lens, the starting point should be humility, which can serve as our guide. We see beyond our insularity into a bigger world—a world that’s not about us. It’s about others.”

The good news for Juan de la Cruz is the world doesn’t starve from wisdom and knowledge in how to traverse the road from poverty to prosperity.

But it presupposes that we stop to see the world through our prisms. Still, it is not a cakewalk.

Look at how we (1) set ourselves up to be the regional laggard and (2) at risk in the South China Sea.

We must question our instincts and world view and learn from others – that can show us the way forward development-wise – so that principles will define our conduct.

Parochialism and insularity have undermined this nation’s future, beyond Philippine trade and foreign relations. It can only get worse for succeeding generations.

And they include even those of ours in the elite class. What privileges are we preserving when the nation is a laughingstock, a pariah nation?

We live in a dynamic universe characterized by interdependence. Neither rich nor developing nations can be self-absorbed.

“Progress depends on openness, but this tends to create resistance that sets back the clock. [Point to human nature.]

“IT WAS NOT just roads that led to Rome. The shipping lanes did, too. By the first century BC, Rome had conquered the entire Mediterranean coastline.

“The Roman Empire prospered because it was open to trade, people, and ideas. Galleys (slaves rowing in a galley) brought all the crafts that exist or have existed. Foreigners could become citizens; a slave’s son could (occasionally) rise to become emperor.

“The Roman Empire ceased to prosper when it stopped to be open. Christianity became the established religion and sought to crush all others.

“This new intolerance led to vicious conflicts between Christians and pagans, who saw their old gods banned. And their temples were torn down. Persecuted pagans joined Rome’s enemies, even welcoming barbarian invaders as liberators.

“Human history is a cacophony of drawbridges being lowered and then raised.

“Mathematics and medicine flourished under the cosmopolitan Abbasid caliphate but froze when religious conservatives won control.

“By driving out Jews, Muslims, and heretics, the Inquisition helped impoverish Spain (between 1500 and 1750 the Spanish economy shrank).

“China’s Song dynasty, which welcomed Muslim traders, Indian monks, and Persians, developed paper money, water-powered textile machines, and the makings of an industrial revolution 400 years before the West.

“But later dynasties turned inward and stagnated. Ming officials smashed smart machines, banned overseas trade on pain of death, and curbed movement inside China. The Manchus were even worse: to prevent contact with the outside world, in 1661, they forced the whole population of the southern coast to move 30km inland.

“A century later, the Qianlong emperor banned or burned any books that seemed sympathetic to previous dynasties, including a great encyclopedia of economic and technical matters.

“Genghis Khan was a vicious warlord, but today’s domestic policies would open him up to accusations of being a politically correct, latte-drinking virtue signaler.’

“The Mongols practiced ethnic and religious tolerance, which is one reason why they were so effective. They promoted skilled fighters, engineers, and administrators of all backgrounds. Of the 150,000-strong horde that invaded Europe in 1241, only around a third were ethnic Mongols. 

“Habsburg soldiers were surprised to find that one captured officer was a middle-aged literate Englishman, who had fled persecution for heresy at home and sought refuge among the more open-minded Mongols.

“All regions have had rulers who tried to preserve stability by shutting out foreign influence. The key to thwarting them has often been for the ruled to vote with their feet.

“Early modern Europe was no more advanced than China, but power was more dispersed, so thinkers who offended one prince could merely move.

“Hobbes wrote ‘Leviathan’ while in exile in Paris; Locke and Descartes went to Amsterdam. Their books could always see print somewhere, and so were impossible to suppress.

“Backlashes against openness are inevitable because they are rooted in human nature.

“Human brains evolved over millennia in which disruptive change often meant death; mutually beneficial exchanges with strangers were rare.

“If we compress the past 300,000 years of history into a single day, it would not be until the final minute that steady material “progress,” fueled by disruptive innovation, took off. Small wonder people’s instincts reflect conservative bias.

“When threatened, they seek shelter within their tribe, so demagogues try to scare them. Fear wins elections.

“Populist demagogues eventually lose power because they are hopeless at governing. Four in ten wind up indicted for corruption, by one count. Citizens get used to ‘change.’ Today, American Muslims are as tolerant of transgender people as in 2006. The open society ‘may yet be saved.’

“If America made both child-rearing and immigration easier, its population could in time swell to 1bn. It would thus remain the pre-eminent power, outstripping China and India. A bigger America would make for a more innovative and democratic world.

“But wouldn’t an America of 1bn people be crowded? No, it would be as sparse as France is now. Even popular cities could accommodate many more residents if building codes were less restrictive. Enlightened visa rules could revive declining towns. Congestion will ease with policies that have worked elsewhere, from road pricing to better railways.

“That is swimming against the tide. Consider: a recent immigration bill backed by Donald Trump is so restrictive that it would not let Kazuo Ishiguro, a British Nobel prizewinner, apply for a work visa unless his job paid at least $240,000.

“Yet, political tides can change.” [“Lowering the drawbridge: Two books expound the virtues of open societies,” The Economist, 12th Sep 2020; Johan Norberg sees openness as an engine of ‘progress.’ Matthew Yglesias wants to open up America.]

Recall the blog argues that moving from one age to another always confound humankind. However, ever since the banishment from the garden or the migration from Africa, it showed the capacity to adapt.

The Creator saw the creation story as good. Shooting for the moon was deemed an impossibility, yet humankind has already walked its grounds.

Translation: Juan de la Cruz can’t stay a pauper.

Gising bayan!

“Here is a land in which a few are spectacularly rich while the masses remain abjectly poor. And where freedom and its blessings are a reality for a minority and an illusion for the many. Here is a land consecrated to democracy but run by an entrenched plutocracy, dedicated to equality but mired in an archaic system of caste. 

“But the fault was chiefly their own. Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“True social reform has little to do with politics. To unmoor ourselves from the burdens of the past, we must be engaged in the act of continual and conscious self-renewal. All men are partially buried in the grave of custom. Even virtue is no longer such if it is stagnant.

“Change begins when we finally choose to examine critically and then recalibrate the ill-serving codes and conventions handed down to us, often unquestioned, by the past and its power structures. It is essentially an act of imagination first.” [David Henry Thoreau; American essayist, poet, and philosopher; 1817-1862]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development is informed by a people’s worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

We must come down to earth.

Indeed, we in the elite class must challenge our thinking. Our successes don’t mean a thing if we leave behind the Philippines, the laughingstock of the region, if not the world. Recall in a recent posting, the blog referenced Aristotle: “The very highest human life consists in the contemplation of the greatest goods.”

Aristotle and Rizal always come to mind because of spending most of the last 17 years in Eastern Europe. With Greece and the Black Sea next door, the wife and writer would encounter these two icons (1) Aristotle’s monument (2) Rizal’s “Mi Ultimo Adios” – etched in tall planters spread out across a favorite resort – part of a Spanish hotel chain.

Sadly, the privileges we enjoy blind us to the reality of Juan de la Cruz. And worse, we can compartmentalize his predicament.

To those of us in the chattering classes, the challenge is to recognize our role. As thought leaders, we influence Juan de la Cruz in more ways than one. And over the almost 12 years of the blog’s existence, it is apparent our paradigms haven’t shifted much.

Recall this piece: “The Economist summarized the critical factors shared by the Best in Class emerging economies: (1) stunning investment and trade levels; (2) higher levels of education and government effectiveness; (3) score highly with exports that are both eclectic and exclusive, as in higher value-added, that few other countries export.”

Then put those critical factors next to our instincts: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism that we rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.

How long have we known that we lag in investment and trade?

Yet, (1) we continue with the same approach that has failed us, and (2) if we can’t move up from our traditional exports to high value-added products and services, how can we even come close to what our neighbors achieved, including break the back of poverty?

Consider: Apparently, the public sector has a budget for roadshows and proudly show the world our export products. But merely doing something without getting much in return should give us pause.

Think of our higher education, where we are the regional laggard. It is no different from our economy.  Marketing 101 says that our way – as in roadshows – is not the way to get results. See above; we are parochial and insular.

Marketing is outward-looking, not inward-looking. It means it is the consumer – not the marketer – that has needs to meet. And it is from meeting such a requirement that the marketer derives compensation.

That’s why when the writer introduced “Innovation” to his Eastern European friends, the premise is Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs. It is the bedrock of “Innovation.”

Unsurprisingly, “innovation” is not our cup of tea. And we think of it as high technology instead of human needs. Worse, we cast it as evil, i.e., consumerism is a no-no. Yet, humankind adapts to the dynamism of the universe, given this hierarchy of needs. Otherwise, we would still be cave-bound.

Humankind comes from the Creator’s image and likeness, and as proud Christians, we know that. And to choose between good and evil is part of the human condition, not the domain of Padre Damaso’s “absolute knowledge.”

Human development comes from experience, and without these human needs, humanity can go extinct. Try making a cave our home and surviving a blizzard, hurricane, or typhoon.

This universe’s dynamism also explains why our MSMEs can’t pull their weight in the economy.

Likewise, our largest enterprises can’t match those from our neighbors. Recall their mantra, “Beg for Western money and technology.” In contrast, ours is to put up barriers to keep them out.

Our tycoons seek not to compete but to monopolize – as in rent-seek. And that demands being in bed with political patronage. And that assures both their places in the hierarchy that we value. In return, we – including our MSMEs – demand paternalism. Unsurprisingly, the UP Institute of Small-Scale Industries studies’ concluded that outside interventions aren’t the elixir for MSMEs but the entrepreneurs themselves, i.e., their entrepreneurial spirit.

Worse, our inward-looking bias neutered whatever forward-looking tendencies we may have that our national conversations are still a century late. Please think of how rapidly our neighbors traversed the road from poverty to prosperity.

And as Rizal knew from over a hundred years ago, ours is a culture of impunity – because we love and submit to tyranny.

In sum, we created a state of equilibrium, but of the harmful kind, i.e., a vicious circle, or a perfect storm.

What to do? Perpetuate the negative equilibrium and shut out the rest of the world, including the US military?

But has reality woken us up? That we need FDIs and protection in the South China Sea and good governance. Likewise, we need funds to restart the economy because of the pandemic. And a host of others.

In other words, we need to be Best in Class as an emerging economy. And that means “(1) stunning investment and trade levels; (2) higher levels of education and government effectiveness; (3) score highly with exports that are both eclectic and exclusive, as in higher value-added, that few other countries export.”

But that is why we need a new paradigm and a better handle on the universal law of cause and effect. So that we don’t confuse peripheral issues – or the trivial many – from the vital few.

For example, poverty is the effect of our underdevelopment. What we want is to be Best in Class as an emerging economy. Sadly, given how “sabog” we are, we fall into the crab mentality.

Why? We lack development experience that comes from honing forward-thinking skills – and benchmarking and learning from others. And when we can’t forward-think, we can’t prioritize. And when we don’t prioritize, we suffer from sub-optimize efforts and outcomes.

Put another way, we dive into “analysis” and miss the “analytics” – because the latter demands forward-thinking.

For example, exports are where we lag. And the question we must ask is, where will we get the biggest bang from our export portfolio. And over 64% of our exports come from (1) electrical machinery, equipment and (2) machinery, including computers.

And how did Vietnam beat us to the draw? They attracted Samsung smartphones and Apple AirPods and will bring them over $80 billion in exports.

On the other hand, we did our “analysis” and concluded that OFW remittances and BPO revenues are “pwede na ‘yan.”

What is the moral of the story? To get it right is to create a virtuous circle. To get it wrong is to make a perfect storm – as in a vicious circle.

Unsurprisingly, a World Bank expert, is stepping up to the plate. “World Bank agriculture expert recommends PHL drop focus on individual crops,” Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, BusinessWorld, 9th Sep 2020.

“A WORLD BANK economist said the Philippines needs to move away from a policy of prioritizing specific crops while focusing on improving the agriculture sector’s resilience and sustainability.

“In a virtual briefing, Eli Weiss, the World Bank senior agriculture economist, said in a report that the Department of Agriculture (DA) should also reconfigure its policy to be demand-driven rather than supply oriented.” [See above; Marketing is outward-looking, not inward-looking.]

On the other hand, this is our perspective:  “THE National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said it hopes to work more closely with stakeholders in achieving the Philippines’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“It said in a statement Thursday that it organized a chamber for both government and non-government SDG stakeholders to more efficiently deploy resources.” [NEDA to work with stakeholders more closely to hit sustainable development goals, Beatrice M. Laforga, BusinessWorld, 10th Sep 2020]

In other words, we’re still “supply oriented” and not “demand-driven.”

Consider: “During these coming four decades, the Philippines will be one of the most promising emerging markets in the whole world, according to a good number of independent think tanks and financial institutions.  Optimism about the long-term prospects of the Philippine economy is, therefore, founded on solid grounds and not just a case of ‘whistling in the dark.’” [To college graduates of 2020, Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas, CHANGING WORLD, Manila Bulletin, 10th Sept 2020]

“When economists talk about a V-shape recovery, it means a much shorter period. In contrast, an L-shape means a much longer time before the economy will return to its pre-pandemic condition. Consider: there are sectors of the economy that were not as hard hit by the pandemic and will bounce back more quickly than others.

“These sectors are (1) the food and agribusiness industry; (2) the digital sector (including the vast BPO-IT industry that employs more than a million generally young people); (3) the health and wellness sector that includes not only the curative portion such as pharmaceuticals, hospitals, and clinics but also the products and services that strengthen immunity against diseases, such as exercise machines, healthy food items and supplements, and even products like rubber shoes that are necessary for sports and regular exercises.”

In other words, we continue to be inward-looking. We have been a fast-growing economy – growing 6%-6.5% – for several years until Covid-19. But we know why, i.e., OFW remittances and BPO industries are the drivers of the economy. Yet millions of Filipinos remain impoverished because we’re the regional laggard – with a gaping hole in national income. And it will take a generation to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

With due respect to think-tanks and financial institutions. Whatever happened to BRIC? Or who created the investment product the world learned as “derivatives” that brought the Great Recession of 2008?

Or pick a BRIC country, say, Russia. Russia is dependent on oil, remains a military power, but a weak economic enterprise because it failed to industrialize. And similar to the Philippines, it is held hostage by the oligarchy and political patronage.

This universe is dynamic, not static.

Benchmark. Benchmark. Benchmark.

Consider the two Vietnam enterprises, i.e., Samsung Vietnam and Apple AirPods Vietnam, that account for over $80-billion in exports. That is more than our total exports, it is more than what we generate from OFW remittances and BPO revenues, and more than the combined revenues of our eight top companies.

Let’s go back to SDGs or sustainable development goals. What are they to pick them at random? No Poverty. Zero hunger. Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure.

Consider: Our GDP per capita makes us an underdeveloped economy. In a generation or so, we will become a middle-income economy. Former Soviet satellite states are, even today, middle-income economies.

But that is not what nirvana is. Think Philippine poverty against how our neighbors traversed the road from poverty to prosperity. Prosperity is nirvana.

Why did Lee Kuan Yew run Singapore like a company? He knew Singapore needed to traverse the road from poverty to prosperity rapidly. And the private sector knows how to drive wealth; otherwise, they go extinct.

In sum, if we are to be demand-driven, we must first learn to forward-think. We need not a 6%-6.5% GDP growth rate but a quantum leap in income. That is how to break the poverty line and hunger.

Let’s hold it right there. 

It is this enormous income gap staring us in the face that we take for granted. And that “pwede na ‘yan” explains how we seek to cover, sadly at our peril. Translation: It is how we do a disservice to Juan de la Cruz, notwithstanding all the compassionate rhetoric they hear.

And that is why the blog points out the Vietnam model, i.e., we are in the same export lines. But because we failed to forward-think, we’re stuck assembling computer chips while they are into regional manufacturing of electronic devices.

Does it remind us of the coconut industry, and ours was the biggest? But even then, we’re stuck in farming and farm produce and did not forward-think to get into agribusiness, as in coco-derived consumer products, for example.

And since we need an even bigger economic development platform, China must come to mind. And that is why the blog teed up the Pearl River Delta economic development zone. China understands the impact of the vital few from the trivial many, as in Pareto.

But it was a simple yet aggressive growth plan. The Chinese focused on rapidly developing the regions of Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing, where a third of them come.

In other words, to disperse and spread out our minuscule tax revenues to grow the economy rapidly is classic sub-optimization, if not a race to the bottom. But we’re stuck with the crab mentality? Call it whatever name we want, LGUs or federalism. It still misses the vital few, as in the tail wagging the dog. 

But then again, it is a function of our inexperience in development. Think of human development and metacognition.

If we want vast investment and trade levels, we don’t have to reinvent the wheel if we care to learn from our neighbors. And that’s where our higher education comes in. Do we sincerely believe that we don't have a higher-education challenge despite our mediocre global rankings?

Consider: Because our neighbors are far advanced in economic development, there is a knock-on effect on their higher education.

And the circle – that characterizes the Best in Class emerging economies – moves on to effective governance. Recall human development comes from experience, not classroom work.

And when you pull the previous altogether, a nation attains nirvana. 

And the 21st century defines it as “innovation and global competitiveness,” manifested by a high score in exports.

There is no harm reprising this spiel: “The Economist summarized the critical factors shared by the Best in Class emerging economies: (1) stunning investment and trade levels; (2) higher levels of education and government effectiveness; (3) score highly with exports that are both eclectic and exclusive, as in higher value-added, that few other countries export.”

Indeed, we in the elite class must show the way and challenge our thinking.

Gising bayan!

“Here is a land in which a few are spectacularly rich while the masses remain abjectly poor. And where freedom and its blessings are a reality for a minority and an illusion for the many. Here is a land consecrated to democracy but run by an entrenched plutocracy, dedicated to equality but mired in an archaic system of caste. 

“But the fault was chiefly their own. Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“True social reform has little to do with politics. To unmoor ourselves from the burdens of the past, we must be engaged in the act of continual and conscious self-renewal. All men are partially buried in the grave of custom. Even virtue is no longer such if it is stagnant.

“Change begins when we finally choose to examine critically and then recalibrate the ill-serving codes and conventions handed down to us, often unquestioned, by the past and its power structures. It is essentially an act of imagination first.” [David Henry Thoreau; American essayist, poet, and philosopher; 1817-1862]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development is informed by a people’s worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]