Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Purpose. Principles. Values.

“Rizal . . . wrote: ‘We said, and we repeat it once more, and will always repeat it, all reforms of a palliative nature are not only ineffective but are even harmful when the Government is beset with ills that need radical remedy.’” [Rizal’s prophecies fulfilled, Oscar P. Lagman, Jr., Business World, 28th Dec 2015]

“Brazil’s fall: Disaster looms for Latin America’s biggest economy,” The Economist, 2nd Jan 2016. “As the B in BRICS, Brazil is supposed to be in the vanguard of fast-growing emerging economies. Instead it faces political dysfunction . . . Only hard choices can put Brazil back on course. Just now, Ms. Rousseff does not seem to have the stomach for them.

Brazil’s suffering, like that of other emerging economies, stems partly from the fall in global commodity prices. But Ms. Rousseff and her left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) have made a bad situation much worse. During her first term . . . she spent extravagantly and unwisely on higher pensions and unproductive tax breaks for favored industries.

“If Brazil is to fulfil its promise, much, much more is needed. A typical manufacturing firm spends 2,600 hours a year complying with the country’s ungainly tax code; the Latin American average is 356. Labor laws modelled on those of Mussolini make it expensive for firms to fire even incompetent employees. Brazil has shielded its firms from international competition. That is one reason why, among 41 countries whose performance was measured by the OECD, its manufacturing productivity is the fourth-lowest.

“To reform work and pensions, Ms. Rousseff must face up to problems that have been decades in the making. Some 90% of public spending is protected from cuts, partly by the constitution which, in 1988, celebrated the end of military rule by enshrining generous job protection and state benefits. Because it is so hard to reform, Brazil’s public sector rivals European welfare states for size but emerging ones for inefficiency.”

Running like a headless chicken – is not it. That was how this writer would introduce the science of innovation to his then new Bulgarian friends. He applauded their creativity until they were ready to take in the science, that art for art's sake would be counterproductive in their economic pursuits.

Indeed they were an impressive bunch, quick to come up with art works and mockups of products – indicative of their potential to compete beyond their home market. To move up to the next level, they had to respond to queries like “Tell me again what this product is for?” And the response can’t be “Don't you like it; it looks nice.”

What was Rizal asking when he spoke to reforms of a palliative nature? What is this reform for, what is the purpose? Wittingly or not, we created an ecosystem that will perpetuate our state of affairs. As this blog has raised, the Philippine ecosystem – which we perhaps take for granted – is comprised of parochialism, paternalism, hierarchy, political patronage and oligarchy. Which is a reflection of what Fr. Bulatao calls our split-level Christianity. For example, we pride ourselves in the focus on family and if Binay becomes president that will even be enshrined – that family is license to kill as in political dynasties?

But we’re incurable optimists despite missing several periods of economic expansion the world has witnessed spanning decades. And today we like to believe that we can address Philippine poverty via “inclusion”? But given our worldview hasn’t changed, would we miss that our ecosystem has a history of generating a perfect storm? See above re the fall of Brazil.

This blog has raised our affliction or Dutch disease – OFW remittances and the BPO industry – because an enterprise, an economy or nation must have a robust income stream. And it can’t be manna from heaven. Man was driven out of Eden because he erred . . . and it was to be his commencement and reality:  to be the master of his world . . . “since we are created in the divine image.” [The Christmas Revolution, Peter Wehner, The New York Times, 25th Dec 2015]

“The incarnation also reveals that the divine principle governing the universe is a radical commitment to the dignity and worth of every person, since we are created in the divine image.” In other words, we can’t rationalize “hierarchy” by embracing paternalism. It is an insult to the dignity and worth of Juan de la Cruz?

And if we would interpret Rizal, poverty can’t be addressed by our definition of inclusion. “Financial inclusion” may be the ’flavor of the month’ yet we’ve had microfinance for the longest time and still our track record in addressing poverty remains pathetic – compared to our neighbors!

And how did our neighbors do it? Economic development! And from what Deng Xiaoping learned from them, China unabashedly begged the West for their “money and technology.” But that goes against the grain if we consider that “parochialism” is in our DNA?

And what are we left with? “He vowed that his administration would prioritize poverty alleviation and uplifting the lives of Filipinos . . . He also promised to continue the cash dole out program of the government for poor families . . . and improve it to ensure better and efficient services as well as provide financial assistance to the senior citizens like what he did in Makati City.” [Binay unfazed by Duterte lead in survey, vows to reduce poverty in PH, Maya Jajalla, Inquirer Visayas, 7th Dec 2015]

Political patronage! That's what we're left with! And it is directed not only to voters but to “kingmakers” – and oligarchy – as well. “The 6 evils of PPPs,” Alberto Agra, Business Mirror, 28th Dec 2015. “Clientism is the funneling of resources to favor a select group. In clientism, former or current clients and friends benefit. Affiliation takes precedence. Capture is providing rents to specific players. When a private proponent captures a public entity, the latter loses its independence, and is beholden to the payor of the rent.”

And as sure as night follows day, when we aren’t the “in crowd” or the select group, “crab mentality” is the favored 'weapon of mass destruction.' “Only P-Noy can resolve issues,” Peter WallacePhilippine Daily Inquirer, 29th Dec 2015. “The country’s dismal record . . . is reflected in the latest World Bank-IFC Doing Business survey in which the Philippines ranked 124th out of 189 economies in terms of enforcing contracts.”

“The Philippines is lagging behind in attracting investment—it’s last among its Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) peers. One of the reasons is policy changes from one administration to the next, or even within an administration. This includes changes in contracts.” And Peter Wallace reminded us of Piatco, among others.

Beyond “crab mentality” is enlightenment or wisdom – or the lack if not the absence of it – which as a churchgoing people we learned through the stories about the scribes and the Pharisees. And is it at the root of PH poor governance – and reflected in our culture of impunity and corrupt and/or delayed justice? 

There are the hard and the soft elements of nation building. And given crab mentality – and our inability to prioritize – what are our chances to move forward as a people and nation? Beyond a Rizal do we need a Washington or a Lincoln or a Roosevelt or even a Deng Xiaoping, for example? We need visionary and strategic leadership – one who will call out our confused or split-level Christianity?

A leadership that can show us the way to an altogether different ecosystem: investment, technology and innovation as well as people, product, supply chain and market development? Meaning, one geared for industrialization because that is how we shall overcome “pwede na ‘yan,” elevate the quality of our income streams and attain a virtuous circle. In short, attain developed nation status!

All reforms of a palliative nature are not only ineffective but are even harmful, so says Rizal. What is our purpose? If it is the development of Juan de la Cruz, what principles and values must we adhere to and embrace? 

“Our ills we owe to ourselves alone, so let us blame no one . . . while we see our countrymen in private life ashamed within themselves, hear the voice of conscience roar in rebellion and protest, yet in public life keep silence or even echo the words of him who abuses them in order to mock the abused; while we see them wrap themselves up in their egotism and with a forced smile praise the most iniquitous actions, begging with their eyes a portion of the booty—why grant them liberty? With Spain or without Spain they would always be the same, and perhaps worse! Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

We can’t learn the primacy of community and the common good if we don’t re-learn freedom. That freedom is not free. It is a responsibility. And if we take on a responsibility, we need to truly understand what it entails.

As this writer’s Bulgarian friends have recognized, running like a headless chicken may equate to art for art’s sake, but in this day and age, innovation is both art and science. Or as Steve Jobs put it, the intersection of liberal arts and technology. It sounds simple yet easier said than done? As Einstein explained, “I just keep at a problem longer than most.” They both belong to a select few and the rest of us lesser mortals can’t figure them out?

And why we call Rizal prescient, he saw our foibles over a century ago? “‘Where are the youth who will consecrate their golden hours, their illusions, and their enthusiasm to the welfare of their native land?’ Rizal asked as he wrote in his novel El Filibusterismo more than a century ago.

“But amid such words uttered through one of the novel’s characters, Padre Florentino, Rizal expressed his love and admiration for the youth whom he called ‘bella esperanza de la patria’ (fair hope of the fatherland) in his poem, ‘A la Juventud Filipina (To the Filipino Youth).’” [Rizal’s hope of the fatherland, Former Senator Atty. Joey D. Lina Jr., Manila Bulletin, 29th Dec 2014]

Did Rizal in fact give up on his generation like our generation is now toast?

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

“White men can't jump”

Can Juan de la Cruz? It's a new year, the time to turn over a new leaf? Old habits die hard. In America people find comfort in the status quo. And why despite its many advantages it keeps underperforming in today’s globalized world. But when the writer was hired by an MNC he was handed a clean slate. “This is your job description. The one thing I want to tell you is we make things and sell things.” And when the next assignment was New York, it again meant getting a clean slate. The writer would share the story with his Eastern European friends: (a) to equip them to compete against the best and the brightest – wherever; and (b) to stress that change is the only thing constant.

In PH our challenge goes beyond poverty; it is about development! And fundamental in development is the pursuit of industrialization. Even agriculture must be industrialized – like Malaysia has demonstrated – if it is to contribute its fair share of economic output and bring more returns to its constituents, especially farmers.

“We said, and we repeat it once more, and will always repeat it, all reforms of a palliative nature are not only ineffective but are even harmful when the Government is beset with ills that need radical remedy.” [Rizal’s prophecies fulfilled, Oscar P. Lagman, Jr., Business World, 28th Dec 2015]

Why industrialization? The ecosystem of an industrialized economy, feeding on each other as in synergy, generates a much greater knock-on effect. Beyond investment it includes technology and innovation as well as people and product and supply chain and market development . . . And they bring about greater employment . . . and higher economic output.

We’ve long been afflicted by our own Dutch disease – OFW remittances and the BPO industry. That is, we shut our senses from the travails of OFWs given they fuel PH’s economy to: (a) be among the fastest growing; (b) keep our forex reserves healthy; and (c) put 12 Filipinos on the Forbes’ list. And everyone wants to take credit? Precisely the nature of a Dutch disease – the failure to recognize the fortuitous character of the nation's income streams. Yet there is no free lunch. Ask the Alaskans!

Decision-making like life is about options, and sadly we accepted being a consumption economy: “puwede na ‘yan.” Eliminating options from the get-go is shooting ourselves in the foot, like bad choices do. And why design-thinking (a problem-solving and innovation model) mirrors the framework of brainstorming. But then again, in a hierarchical system and structure, hierarchy rules.

But back to industrialization. It must be founded on a simple mantra: everything starts with the product! [In PH it’s not about the product but franchising industrialization to oligarchy, the converse being over 99% of enterprises are MSMEs as we hold FDIs at bay? And we call it patriotism instead of tyranny even when our average income remains at Third-World levels?] That’s why there is product development (and crop rotation in the case of agriculture) and portfolio management. And fundamental in economics or enterprise is the scarcity of resources; meaning, portfolio management must pass the rigor of the margin or profitability test. Still, there is always the big picture or the ecosystem. 

And not surprisingly, notwithstanding our biggest enterprises and given their business models, we can’t raise PH global competitiveness index. Their common denominator is derived from our oligarchic – as opposed to competitive – economy. And our patriotic fervor gets knotted in this antiquated model, making us pushovers in the global competitive arena.

Thus we're stuck (also brought about by linear thinking as opposed to creative or lateral thinking) and left to deal with poverty and financial inclusion given our limited options. Either we make do or write our own rules, and ignore Darwin? That we don't even need FDIs being an island unto ourselves? Try telling that to the Americans or the Chinese, the biggest economies and largest recipients of FDIs!

Parochialism. Paternalism. Hierarchy. Political patronage. Oligarchy. They comprise our ecosystem as we continue to live in the past, wittingly or not, if not a throwback to czarist Russia or the ancient world of the Greeks or Romans. And it explains why we lag our neighbors in the Global Competitiveness Index, a key measure in 21st century economic development and nation building.

Enter Steve Jobs with his mantra of creating “insanely great products.” While a Yale professor (teaching a course in the study of geniuses) puts Jobs in the company of Beethoven and Einstein, among others, he “grew up idolizing the Hewlett-Packard ideal of an egalitarian workplace where ideas come before hierarchy . . .” [p. 62, Steve Jobs: the genius who changed the world, Time special edition 2015]

Ideas come before hierarchy . . . Should we dissect the value that comes with respect for elders – the excuses and its extension to hierarchy – and why the Church, including the Curia, struggles to comprehend Francis? Is Christ embracing the lowly incomprehensible to the holier-than-thou? Is egalitarian a Western invention that we must criticize? When hierarchy in tandem with parochialism is yet to exact its full measure on Juan de la Cruz – even when poverty has already confounded us despite the billions spent on CCT?

“Did Steve Jobs ‘invent’ the incredible glass surfaces of the iPhone and the iPad? Certainly not—but he sure as heck invented the need for them and the vast potential behind the revolutionary touch-input archetype created by the combination of that glass surface and the applications and interactions sitting under it.

“Maybe we should think of it as invention through integration, or integration-driven invention. Either way, the fundamental point is the same: Steve Jobs saw things none of the rest of us saw, and he drove the creation of things no other company could create.” ['Steve Jobs Didn't Really Invent Anything.' Really (??), Bob Evans, Forbes, 12th Dec 2011].

And that would bring Beethoven to mind. “Beethoven’s innovation was the ability to rapidly establish a solidity in juxtaposing different keys and unexpected notes to join them. This expanded harmonic realm creates a sense of a vast musical and experiential space through which the music moves, and the development of musical material creates a sense of unfolding drama in this space . . .

“Beethoven’s music parallels the simultaneous development of the novel in literature, a literary form focused on the life drama and development of one or more individuals through complex life circumstances, and of contemporaneous German idealism’s philosophical notion of self, mind, or spirit that unfolds through a complex process of contradictions and tensions between the subjective and objective until a resolution or synthesis occurs in which all of these contradictions and developmental phases have been resolved or encompassed in a higher unity.” [http://www.beethoven.ws/musical_style_and_innovations.html]

Innovation is about integration or a higher unity. At Apple Jobs had to rely on ideas from his team within and without. With Beethoven it meant borrowing from other art forms. And that is where hierarchy falls flat on its face, precisely why Francis keeps beating up the Curia? Neither does innovation reside in an inward- and backward-looking bias but an outward- and forward-looking mindset.

Should we fault President Aquino if he sounds he’s from the Curia when he is in good company – our elite class, including the candidates in the next presidential election? If Binay’s paternalism (or more dole outs campaign promise) can only accelerate our way down the abyss, what about Roxas? He’s from our elite class, a product of a Western elite school to boot. In our hierarchical system and structure he has the pedigree – and the brand name – and is a great choice?  

Brand names are no guarantee: “After five years of making predictions, we are proud of our record. Out of the 49 companies that have made our list, 24 have disappeared. Given that these brands were chosen from a universe of thousands, we think it's an impressive record.” [http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-brands-disappear-2015-172428388.html]

We can clutch at straws yet how far we've come down the abyss is mind boggling! Are we predisposed to pursue transformation? Fatalism is a sinking ship as in to prioritize is alien to us. And we keep taking the path of least resistance – because of “crab mentality.” And they run counter to the imperatives of transformation.

We take it as a positive that we're negotiating trade with the EU. That is well and good. But if we can't develop competitive products we can't generate much economic output from trade agreements. The evidence? Mexico which is yet to exploit NAFTA or Greece which imploded despite EU.

Likewise it’s important for the business registration process to be more efficient to encourage more MSMEs. But over 99% of our enterprises are MSMEs yet we still lag in the Global Competitiveness Index. Because developing competitive products – innovation, in other words – must come first! Not franchising industrialization to oligarchy – which spells t-y-r-a-n-n-y by the few?

We can’t be like Steve Jobs but still we can’t ignore integration, the key to innovation. It is the North Star that we must keep an eye on. For example, in the beginning the writer’s Eastern European friends assumed he was there to hand them the rules. “What is the rule for this and the rule for that?” And they were disappointed even angry – their word.

They've since realized it's about the integration of the sense of purpose and principles and values. That must come from the team in an environment that is egalitarian. And very recently, visiting one of their countries, the writer worked with the local team to redefine their purpose . . . until they figured out that they must be three times bigger than their most successful market. How? Through the requisite principles and values. (That is despite being a poor ex-Soviet satellite or why in PH MNCs are profitable. It’s par for the course, not to crow about – if they’re to be a force for good otherwise they ought not to be around.)

And as Steve Jobs put it, it is the intersection of liberal arts and technology. And so it was fine with him when his friend Steve Wozniak (an engineer) did not see him as a technology expert. 

We have experts and technocrats in PH but where are we and why can't we move forward as a nation? White men can’t jump. Can Juan de las Cruz?

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

[My family joins me in wishing everyone the very best of the New Year!] 

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

“Arrogance of success”

“. . . [L]ike what he did in Makati City . . .” [Binay unfazed by Duterte lead in survey, vows to reduce poverty in PH, Maya Jajalla, Inquirer Visayas, 7th Dec 2015] “He vowed that his administration would prioritize poverty alleviation and uplifting the lives of Filipinos, particularly in Negros Oriental, considered the poorest province in Central Visayas. He also promised to continue the cash dole out program of the government for poor families — the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) — and improve it to ensure better and efficient services as well as provide financial assistance to the senior citizens like what he did in Makati City.”

Of course we can afford dole outs. Beyond Binay and Makati, consider: “12 Filipinos in Forbes’ 2015 billionaires’ list,” Rappler.com, 4th Mar 2015.

But can we do better than dole outs? “Learning and innovation go hand in hand . . . The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard (1911-1989), physicist-priest; colleague of Einstein in Manhattan Project]

Not surprisingly, we rank poorly in the Global Innovation Index, behind Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and India. We may be ahead of Indonesia but how could we lag Moldova, for instance? Those of us ensconced in gated communities won’t even imagine living in Moldova – a nation of less than 5 million people with a GDP (PPP) per capita of $5,000, even lower than our $7,000.

Granted we’re moving up in the various global rankings, let’s distinguish the low-hanging fruit from honest-to-goodness transformation. In other words, so long as we take as sacrosanct elements of our way of life we shall always be blindsided – that will reflect and reinforce the absence of community and the common good in Juan de la Cruz? And proud as we are, our 12 entrants to the Forbes’ list cannot enlarge the PH pie. That is why a critical measure of development is not the 1-% but the size of the middle class.

And it’s not about focusing on populist measures either. Fundamental in economics is the scarcity of resources. And the response is not “crab mentality” but priority setting. The evidence? Beyond poverty we can’t fix such basic problems as electricity, the jeepney and, of course, traffic. Priority setting comes not from an inward- and backward-looking bias but an outward- and forward-looking mindset. And from where visionary and strategic leadership is derived. To keep postponing the inevitable means spiraling down the abyss – a race to the bottom!

“[I]n the city of Sirjan, decisions long postponed have begun to impose themselves on local officials, forcing them to make difficult choices in allocating scarce water supplies.” [Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran, Thomas Erdbrink, The New York Times, 18th Dec 2015]

“Wedged between two newly built neighborhoods of five-story apartment buildings, a convoy of water trucks waited in line to fill their 5,000-gallon tanks. Under a deal with the local water management company, up to 400 of these trucks a day draw water from the city’s main well and head to the Golgohar iron mine, the largest such mine in the Middle East. It employs over 7,000 people, many of them from Sirjan, and a water shortage has compounded an already difficult situation brought on by collapsing iron ore prices.

“It is internationally unprecedented to carry water with tankers, but we have no other way . . . If water is not taken to the complex, projects are stopped, and many people will lose their jobs.

“Kerman Province remains one of the largest producers of pistachios in the world, but its irrigation methods are frequently outdated. In one field, a farmer, Ismael Alizadeh, opened an eight-inch water pipe during the middle of the day, under the burning sun, flooding a field of pistachio trees. ‘We have always done it like this,’ he said with a shrug.

“He blamed the government for keeping energy and water prices low . . . covering his huge pump and 20 employees. ‘It’s ridiculous,’ he said. ‘And while we have no water, its price is also dirt cheap.’”

It’s delusional? Which is also what we suffer in PH?

The fact that Bongbong Marcos has the gall to talk down on Marcos critics speaks volumes, and brings to mind Peter the Great who was supposedly a reformist. But having lived through martial rule we know firsthand that power corrupts – and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Does it explain the chutzpah?

Yet, is it only Bongbong or Binay who is delusional? Power resides as well in the elite class and where we are today as a nation speaks volumes. We have been corrupted as well!

And the writer can commiserate with the NEDA secretary who sees the economy growing at 6% despite a slower 3rd quarter. Because even at 7% growth it would take us a generation to move up to developed-nation status, confirmed by the international institutions.

Comes our next delusion. That because we are the fastest growing country in the region we should be thankful and in celebration mode. But that’s of no moment because our average income can’t mask our being a Third-World country; and with it comes the levels of poverty we talk about incessantly.

Indeed we have a structural deficiency – effectively a cancer – and yet we like to look at the symptoms like our 6% or 7% growth rate? OFW remittances and the BPO industry by themselves can’t build up this economy. Nor the series of credit rating upgrades, with due respect to the CB. The financial community does not necessarily examine the building blocks of an economy. The evidence? Look at how they brought the world down to its knees, the Great Recession!

The fact that we are nowhere near an industrialized economy says we can’t be an economic powerhouse. Singapore is tiny population-wise, among others, and can easily be a service-economy powerhouse like Switzerland. But 100 million Filipinos need more than a service economy. And we like to talk up demographic as our “sweet spot” – that a big and young population equals a dream economy and attractive to investors? Another delusion? China and India had bigger population and the world was witness to their poverty until they pursued economic reforms – and attracted FDIs. Yet we like to believe FDIs come like manna from heaven? 

We need enormous investments that must be funneled to critical industries that will raise PH competitiveness. And that means setting priorities like the 7 industry winners teed up by the JFC because they will attract FDIs, generate employment in a major way and appreciably raise economic output, including exports. Except that it goes against the grain especially when our favorite industry is not among the winners. And when political patronage and oligarchy are behind the “crab mentality,” we can only kiss FDIs and PH industrialization and competitiveness goodbye? And which has been the case for the longest time!

And even more fundamental, to attract investment, we must accelerate infrastructure development. And that means we can’t take the focus away from Metro Manila while we do what must be done in the other major metro and even rural areas. And our dreadful traffic is only a symptom. It is again about Pareto. We have to accelerate infrastructure development in Metro Manila given it is the engine of the economy.

Americans can focus on Iowa to demonstrate a culture of inclusion it being campaign season but that doesn’t mean Cuomo can ignore the infrastructure challenges of New York – or those of California c/o Brown. Or could they stop prosecuting errant politicians – like those in Albany.

On the other hand ‘Pinoy abilidad’ is telling us to prioritize the low-hanging fruit like making business registration more efficient or lowering taxes to encourage consumption or focusing on MSMEs. There is nothing wrong with all of them. Except that they are focused on “the activity” as opposed to “the outcome.” Sadly, they are a reflection of the absence of visionary and strategic leadership?

But then again, visionaries are few and far between. Even Steve Wozniak could not figure out his friend Steve Jobs that they had a falling out. Wozniak was focused on “the activity” of creating a computer but Jobs’ vision was to change the world. And indeed that was way beyond human comprehension.

To Wozniak Jobs was perhaps delusional?

And if an Iranian farmer acknowledges their own delusion, what about us? We may be successful as individuals but have we set this nation down a slippery slope? And that is more than shameful?

Being a churchgoing people, what role should we wish the Philippine church play so that we – especially the elite class – begin to dig deep and figure out what Rizal and peers saw over a century ago? And there is Francis if we need guidance? Our shortcomings aren’t new as historians would point out – and we have a bigger challenge than we’ve recognized?

In the meantime, “As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

[My family joins me in wishing one and all a blessed Christmas and a healthy and prosperous New Year!]

Saturday, December 19, 2015

“This flies in the face of reason”?

“Since the launch of the country’s National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) in 2011, the government has approved the construction of 21 coal-fired power projects. This flies in the face of reason. In a country with such abundance of renewable energy from the sun, the wind and the earth, it is madness to keep importing fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, and to delay the inevitable shift to renewables that is already under way.” [How to achieve energy security and restart industrialization, John A. MathewsRoger D. PosadasPhilippine Daily Inquirer, 13th Dec 2015]

Should we be surprised at all given how we lag the world in infrastructure development? Does it have to do with our values – that patriotism presupposes we are an island unto ourselves? For example, we are proud that our BIG Boys control this building block of the Philippine economy? And are likewise proud of our compassion and wouldn’t want Juan de la Cruz to pay higher electricity bills – even during the transition from fossil to RE? And why we can’t transition out of the jeepney?

Yet when all is said and done, we don’t want to be amongst the endangered species Darwin spoke about? This is the 21st century and our worldview has to adapt accordingly?

“Learning from neighbors. First, the renewable energy goals need to be made more ambitious—much more ambitious. For a country of the size of the Philippines, there should be a goal of 10 GW by 2020 and 100 GW by 2025 in renewables capacity. We would expect that these ambitious goals would kick-start an energy revolution that would then become unstoppable. [Mathews, Posadas, op. cit.]

“Next, the government should invite foreign companies to bid for power supply contracts—subject to stringent local content requirements that would kick start a real renewables manufacturing industry in the Philippines. This would help to meet developmental goals—creating manufacturing industries, employment and exports around new energy systems, and relieving the pressure of coal, oil and gas imports on the balance of payments.

“Third, local communities should be encouraged to build their own locally owned and supplied power systems—to break the monopoly of National Power Corp. which has been such a dead hand on the electrification of the Philippines.

“In this way the first hesitant steps taken so far, such as the Bangui and Mindoro wind farms, and the three-phase solar power project at Negros Occidental launched by San Carlos Solar Energy Inc., could be replicated and expanded. The Philippines has abundant renewable energy resources—but they need to be harvested using devices that are becoming central to global competition in the 21st century.

“The renewable energy revolution offers countries like the Philippines a fresh start in achieving goals of industrial development and movement up the ladder of rising incomes. Energy security is a critical element in this process—as clearly understood by China, India and Brazil. While politics in the Philippines fiddles over feed-in tariffs, the rest of world powers ahead with a renewables revolution that promises independence from fossil fuels.”

What chance do we have to learn to adapt to the world around us? We can’t write our own rules; and it applies even to a global behemoth! In other words, no one can live in the past. “A company of our size, international reach and complexity cannot be managed with structures from the past . . .” [The Engineering of Volkswagen’s Aggressive Ambition, Jack Ewing and Graham Bowley, The New York Times, 13th Dec 2015]

“. . . Volkswagen had become a place where subordinates were fearful of contradicting their superiors and were afraid to admit failure. There is a self-righteousness which led down this terrible path . . . ‘We need in the future a climate in which problems aren’t hidden but can be openly communicated to superiors’ . . . VW had this special culture . . . It was like North Korea without labor camps . . .”

But let’s get back to PH. There is good news – but not really? And so how do we learn to appreciate that there is the big picture? For example, “compassion” is not the be-all and end-all. There is such a thing as kindness to a fault?

The government should review the program and implementing guidelines of the P1-billion Agriculture and Fisheries Financing Program, the state-run think tank Philippine Institute of Development Studies said Monday.” [PDIS: P1-b agri funding to fail, Gabrielle H. Binaday, The Standard, 14th Dec 2015]

PIDS economists Ma. Piedad Geron and Gilberto Llanto said in a policy note the government should not go back to the old scheme that did not work out in micro-financing before. ‘The foregoing remarks and observations point to one thing: the government may be going back to an old approach that did not work—the past DCPs,’ the authors said.

“As presently formulated, the program guidelines seem to resurrect some of the arrangements under the failed directed credit programs, or DCPs, of the past . . . The P1-billion flexible credit facility aims to help over 1 million farmers and fisherfolk who were non-agrarian reform beneficiaries and engaged in priority commodities identified by the Department of Agriculture in the 20 poorest provinces.”

And so we applaud efforts that meet our standards of “inclusion,” but then again we must recognize that if we can’t connect the dots chances are we will fall short. Nothing operates in a vacuum, so to speak.

“The EIU cited as one of this year’s financial inclusion highlights in the Philippines the signing of the National Strategy for Financial Inclusion last July. “The strategy establishes a framework and action plan for the government and the private sector to take a coordinated and systematic approach to the development of a financial system that is accessible and responsive to the needs of the entire population,” it noted.” [PH lands in top 3 on financial inclusion, Ben O. de Vera,Philippine Daily Inquirer13th Dec 2015]

“However, despite the strides made thus far, there remain a number of challenges to financial inclusion in the country, according to the EIU. While the Philippines has been a leader in promoting and creating an enabling environment for financial inclusion, there is still much to be done as only 26 percent of adult Filipinos have savings accounts and only 10.5 percent have access to formal credit . . .

“Also, challenges remain in terms of scaling market innovations, particularly in technology-driven initiatives . . . There is also a chronic need for financial education and consumer-protection initiatives across regulated and nonregulated institutions . . .”

Those are two enormous challenges. Innovation demands much more than financial inclusion – and it starts with an open, progressive, forward-looking mind. (And why the Volkswagen story is instructive in a parochial culture like ours where we value hierarchy, political patronage and oligarchy.) While financial education is optimized – and goes far and wide – when there is a large middle class.

To quote an earlier posting: Our challenge then as now is to “transition to a new stage of consciousness and transform [our] society beyond family bands . . . to [a true] nation state; and for the economy to evolve beyond foraging and horticulture and agriculture to industrialization; and change our power structure and the role of religion” [Reinventing organizations, Frederic Laloux, Nelson Parker, 2014; p. 14] – and move it away from ideology and fundamentalism. (The latter being a continuing declaration from Pope Francis?)

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

Monday, December 14, 2015

The same kind of thinking?

We are among the happiest people if not the happiest; and a most resilient people? Consider this reality that we seem to have more than our fair share: “Poverty alleviation is the main concern of many countries. Poverty is said to be an economic, social, cultural, political and moral phenomenon. Like the issue, its solutions are multi-faceted. It requires a collective action from governments, corporations, citizens, consumers, workers, investors and educators . . . The country’s poverty is more of a shameful condition than a pitiful one. It has not substantially improved since the 1990s.” [Ethical business actions and poverty reduction, Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul, Green Light, The Standard, 6th Dec 2015]

“Economic Growth Didn’t Ease Poverty,” Benjamin E. Diokno, Core, Business World, 8th Dec 2015. “The first Millennium Development Goal (MDG) is to halve poverty incidence by 2015. Despite the above normal economic growth during the last four years, the Philippines will miss this goal. By contrast, the same goal has been reached globally in 2000, five years ahead of schedule.” [Economic Growth Didn’t Ease Poverty, Benjamin E. Diokno, Core, Business World, 8th Dec 2015]

“Likewise, our ASEAN-6 (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) neighbors -- Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam -- have met this lofty goal many years ago. This suggests that our Asian peers are doing things right while we continue to muddle through.”

We continue to muddle through? “To argue that jeepneys should not be phased out because they are a tradition is to say we never should have stopped burning wood for fuel . . . The romanticized notion that the jeepney is a testament to Filipino ingenuity and resourcefulness because it was built out of army jeeps left behind by the US forces after World War II is today as outdated as the vehicle itself. We need a better symbol of Filipino ingenuity and resourcefulness—preferably one that doesn’t belch smoke.” [Smokescreen arguments, Editorial, The Standard, 9th Dec 2015]

“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” [Albert Einstein]

“Mar . . . feels that the Aquino administration has achieved what no other Chief Executive before him has done – turn the economy around and plant the seeds of good governance. Aquino put the nation in a position of strength by improving its relationships with its stakeholders (creditors, investors, trading partners, the public, etc.) and fixing the nation’s Balance Sheet, so to speak. He believes that the best way to move the country forward is to continue the development path PNoy has started. He presents himself as the proponent of that path.” [The difference between Grace and Mar, Andrew James Masigan, Manila Bulletin, 6th Dec 2015]

“What happened to the hundreds of billion pesos of cash transfers distributed by the government? On the President’s request, Congress has approved a total of P229.8 billion from 2011 to 2015 . . . The counterfactual argument, of course, is that the poverty picture could have been worse had the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program not exist. But could the P229.8 billion have been better targeted? And could the cost of administering the CCT program have been minimized? The next administration should review the program with the view of making it more cost-effective . . . Strong, sustained growth is a necessary condition for poverty reduction, but it is not a sufficient one. It matters where growth is coming from, and whether it is inclusive.” [Diokno, op. cit.]

Does it mean then that allocating money even in the billions isn't the answer to poverty? President Ramos said it best, “we need to enlarge the pie.” In other words, PHL’s GDP per person has remained at Third-World levels, a mere fraction compared to those of our neighbors, and billions in CCT money by definition will not raise our average income or enlarge the economic pie?

And there are factors that are imperative to raise economic output especially for an underdeveloped economy. And topping the list would be infrastructure development and industrialization, the hard elements that drive a nation’s competitiveness. Yet for the longest time we’ve been unable to focus on them – a reflection of our inability to prioritize?

Where is it coming from? The absence of visionary and strategy leadership and our crab mentality – a double whammy; and given our parochial bias and values of hierarchy, political patronage and oligarchy they yield a perfect storm – undermining the common good and nation building? 

Of course we have the money (FX reserves or GIR) that makes the CB proud although we would rather be silent about the source: the blood, sweat and tears of over 10 million OFWs! And because they prop our oligarchic economy and enrich the few, we like to think we're fine and dandy? Why rock the boat? All we need is CCT to placate the poor? It’s the economy, stupid!

And there are the soft elements too. “In the latest World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report, 2015-2016, ‘inefficient government bureaucracy’ climbed to the top spot as the most problematic factor for doing business in the country, from last year’s fourth place. Moreover, ‘complexity of tax regulations’ ranked fourth, whereas elsewhere in the ASEAN it is not in the top 5 concerns.” [Reduce regulatory burden (!), Romeo Bernardo, Introspective, Business World, 6th Dec 2015]

“The World Bank has earlier warned that ‘Certain tax policy regimes are both inefficient and detrimental to job creation. Enforcing the current weak tax design may yield more revenues but will have adverse impacts on jobs’ (World Bank, “Philippine Economic Update,” 2014).

“Then there are the big disputes arising from sudden idiosyncratic reinterpretation by regulatory bodies of contracts after more than a decade of being implemented and celebrated as successful examples of public-private partnerships. I refer to the two water concessions of the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System, the Shell-Oxy Malampaya project, and the Manila North Tollways Corp.; all are now or about to enter international arbitration initiated by the private parties against government for non-implementation of contracts in amounting to several tens of billions of pesos.

“How can Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects for infrastructure . . . take off unless government can provide greater regulatory clarity and stability? To keep in step with our neighbors, a comprehensive regulatory package must be part of next administration’s reform pillars.

“NEDA Deputy Director General and University of the Philippines Professor Emmanuel F. Esguerra identified elements from OECD and ASEAN for best practices for good regulation . . .

“Beneath technocratic language is the political reality of bureaucratic inertia and entrenched interests in the status quo labyrinth that must be overcome. Hopefully, our next leader will have the vision and political will and skill to take on this difficult but necessary task for the Philippines to truly travel the “tuwid na daan” to inclusive investment-led growth.”

That’s a challenge that can't be underestimated: we can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. And in today's digital age, Steve Jobs would add: creativity is connecting the dots. And that is as much a challenge given the specialization and linear thinking inherent in higher education.

And not surprisingly, the engineer in Steve Wozniak (who cobbled together the first Apple) saw the weakness in Jobs (the college dropout) technology-wise, and to Jobs that was just fine: he wanted to change the world. And Apple had to be more than a discipline or an expertise. Steve Jobs wanted to create an altogether new ecosystem. Which explains why the traditional giants in corporate America were relegated to the sidelines. Yes, even a supposedly fully developed environment can be transformed.

But which we Pinoys have yet to visualize – even when our underdevelopment in fact gives us a whole lot of playing field!

Where is it coming from? Our inability to raise our level of consciousness because we see ourselves as the chosen few and have attained wisdom? Enter Francis: are we suffering from neurosis or leprosy?

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]