Like a carousel, PH is running ‘round in circles …

We have a seventy-year old problem, do we need adult supervision? “All right, so maybe we should be allowed to pop some corks. But after we’re done congratulating ourselves, the question to confront is whether the episode can be sustained.

“After all … growth accelerations are not as rare as one might think … [F]or example, Thailand had two episodes of growth acceleration (1957, 1986), as did Indonesia (1967, 1987), Malaysia (1970, 1988), South Korea (1962, 1984), and China (1978, 1990).

“[China] could add a few more, and an early one could probably be booked for Vietnam as well (1989). The Philippines is an outlier in that it took almost seventy years before it experienced the current — and only — one.”

“[T]he real question is whether the current direction of ‘Dutertenomics’ protects the economy against a possible collapse or renders it more vulnerable … That’s where the picture becomes decidedly mixed — or one might say, clearly murky. Even as we mark a completed growth-acceleration episode, the ‘change that is coming’ in its wake is unsettling.

“Until recently, a current-account surplus — even in the face of rapid growth — used to distinguish us from neighbors like Vietnam, Indonesia, and even India.

“Now however the country is about to experience its first current-account deficit in 15 years and anticipates a balance of payments deficit to boot. No surprise, therefore, that the peso has depreciated to its lowest level in more than a decade, well out of line with its peers and global trends.

“But this trend has been encouraged by the administration’s own fiscal signals. (Remember the twin-deficit formula.) It has clearly announced its willingness to widen the fiscal deficit to as much as 5% of GDP.

“At the same time, it seeks to convince Congress to raise new taxes to support an ambitious infrastructure plan — which is itself bogged down in ‘absorptive capacity’ problems (Gerry Sicat) alias ‘execution problems’ (Boo Chanco) involving procurement, right of way, and inadequate planning and design skills in government.

“Let’s see, so on the one hand, the Dutertenomists have indicated their willingness to loosen the purse strings, even as they signal (no, demand) that new funds shall be forthcoming … Meanwhile, it is common knowledge that actual infrastructure spending will inevitably fall short of what is planned.

“The predictable effect is to encourage populist proposals in aid of election or patronage: free irrigation, free college tuition (et tu, Bam Aquino!), increased retirement pensions, new rice subsidies to 4P beneficiaries and to uniformed personnel and so on — not to mention fat unaudited intelligence funds to reward those incorruptible and human rights-loving police.

“To be sure, none of these events or doubts is likely to be fatal in a single year. But can or will these directions be sustained over six to eight more years? One cannot help wondering then if Dutertenomics has not started out on the wrong foot.

“What if the Dutertenomists had focused instead on improving the investment climate, particularly direct foreign investment? What if, rather than antagonizing the US, the EU, and the UN, the administration had instead simply reaffirmed its traditional economic and political partnerships, even as it vigorously encouraged trade and investment deals with new actors like China and Russia?” [Growth accelerations, Emmanuel S. de Dios, Introspective, BusinessWorld, 21st Aug 2017]

“Constitutional amendments needed to boost FDI,” Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan, BusinessWorld, 18th Aug 2017. There we go again … how long have we been talking about amending the Constitution? Do we look like a carousel that just keeps running ‘round in circles?

“THE GOVERNMENT needs to amend the constitution to open up industries currently restricted from foreign participation, to unleash the economy’s full growth potential, economists said.

“[F]ormer Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cielito F. Habito said that efforts to open up new sectors for foreign direct investment (FDI) require comprehensive efforts to amend the charter, noting that current tweaks to redefine ‘Public utilities’ to allow more FDI will have only a temporary impact.

“The reason we continue to lag behind our neighbors, despite dramatic improvements already made, is still because of these legal constraints to more foreign participation in our industries.” [Tubayan, op. cit.]

“[W]hat if — rather than pursue the ‘war on drugs’ — they had immediately resumed and championed the Bangsamoro peace process and ratified the Bangsamoro basic law?

“Would we then have seen a stronger, more varied wave of foreign direct investments that could have covered the incipient deficits in the current account and the BoP?” [de Dios, op. cit.]

“President Duterte has had the majority of the people at his back since the beginning of his war against illegal drugs. Even while sometimes expressing great apprehension at the methods used and, more specifically, the conduct of the police, strong support has been reasonably consistent during the past year.

“The shooting to death by the police of Kian Loyd Delos Santos may be the turning point in the people’s trust of Duterte and his policies.

“Malacañang better realize very quickly that a failure of trust about the war on drugs will negatively affect the public’s view about all of the president’s initiatives, from foreign policy to local transportation. A lack of trust in a person is not confined to the immediate matter at hand. If a company cannot trust an executive about a small expense account item, can it trust that same person not to reveal trade secrets?

“Presidential Spokesman Ernesto C. Abella, describing the killing as an ‘isolated’ incident, is, perhaps, the weakest possible answer to this potential crisis of trust and confidence. The next few days and weeks, as the investigation into the killing continues, may well determine what the next five years of the relationship between the President and the people will be and whether his presidency will be a success.

“The President and his advisors are at a crossroads. Any indication of a lack of transparency in the investigation or attempts to diminish the seriousness of this potential crime will be met with increasing outrage. Someone once said, ‘Trust is like a vase. Once it is broken, though you can fix it, the vase will never be the same again’.” [Losing trust, BusinessMirror, Editorial, 21st Aug 2017]

Don’t we take pride in our being the only Christian nation in the region – the solitary country without divorce, and takes reproductive health as evil? How could we for a moment imagine that EJK exemplifies our values?

Didn’t we say “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely” … in the case of Marcos? Yet we are poised to add insult to injury, setting the stage for Bongbong Marcos to assume the throne? Who cares if this family fits the PH culture of impunity to a tee?

Like a carousel, PH is running ‘round in circles … We have a seventy-year old problem, we do need adult supervision? Could we learn from the Joint Chiefs despite the US president being the commander-in-chief? Not if we can’t toss our leader-dependency and subservience, a consequence of our hierarchical and paternalistic instincts?

“They were speaking directly to the force and to the American people: to the force to make clear that that kind of racism and bigotry is not going to stand inside the force. And to the American people, to remind them of the values for which we stand in the U.S. military, which are reflective of the values of the United States.

[In other words, the Joint Chiefs are providing the 71-year old boy occupant of the White House adult supervision.]

“It's rare for active high-ranking members of the military to engage in political statements, and especially to publicly appear to distance themselves from the president.” [Joint Chiefs Denounce Racism After Trump's Comments, James Doubek, npr.com, 17th Aug 2017] 

If such is a rarity even in America, recall that in a previous post the blog spoke to transformation. And the Dalai Lama comes to mind. Can we instead learn to turn away from our self-regard and wipe the tears from the eyes of another – as in community and the common good? Our inward-looking bias makes it counter-intuitive, but it’s the true secret to joy per His Holiness and Archbishop Tutu. [The Book of Joy, with Douglas Abrams; Penguin Random House]

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]