“More Filipinos will be plunged into poverty this year even as government cash transfers and wage subsidies attempt to blunt the economic fallout from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – i.e., on the most vulnerable, according to the World Bank. And assuming only two months of loss of income in the poor and vulnerable population, the poverty rate can increase by 3.3 percentage points in 2020.” [“Poverty rate to rise this year,” Czeriza Valencia, The Philippine Star, 10th Jun 2020]
“In the last quarter of 2019, 54% of families considered themselves “poor,” according to the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey. The survey conducted in December was 12 percentage points above the previous mark of 42% in September 2019.
“The SWS said that 54% translated to around 13.1 million self-rated “poor families” in December 2019. In September that year, it was at 10.3 million.” [13.1 million Filipino families consider themselves poor, says SWS survey, Michelle Abad, Rappler.com, 23rd Jan 2020]
Consider what we were up to 40 years ago:
“A range of 11 big industrial projects is in the works,” The Christian Science Monitor, 19th Sep 1980. “Late in 1979, the Marcos government accelerated the launching of 11 major industrial projects.”
Then 32 years later, on 26th Sep 2012, President Benigno S. Aquino III delivered a speech at the Arangkada Philippines Forum: “The Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines (JFCP), acting in solidarity with our agenda of national transformation, has graciously conducted a study on how to accelerate investments and economic growth, and create jobs in the country.
“The Arangkada study mentioned seven promising sectors. Some in the audience may recall that these same seven sectors were part of my platform during the 2010 election campaign. They represent the global competitive advantage of the Philippines. They are primary areas of growth that can create millions of jobs for our economy and potentially change the tragic paradigm of poverty afflicting too many citizens.
“2012 will be a good year because more people will have a chance to better their lot in life. It will be a good year because we will be one step closer to the Philippines’ vision, where every citizen has the capacity and the opportunity to contribute to the task of nation-building.”
Aquino was president from 2010-2016. And where was Arangkada after his term?
“Major reforms required for 9% GDP growth–JFC,” Cai Ordinario, BusinessMirror, 14th Sep 2017. “Despite the impressive progress, compared to its other major ASEAN neighbors, the Philippines still lags in overall competitiveness.
“The government should adopt policies to double the GDP growth rate. That has to be supported by a clear long-term industry policy.
“When it comes to manufacturing, the countries with strong industries are South Korea, Japan, the United States, and the EU. The manufacturing sector has created 5 million to 7 million jobs in these countries.
“If you look at $25 billion or $30 billion in export in the electronics sector and look at the related import figures, you will be shocked. Everything we do here, what we keep here is labor because all the rest is import, and what we export is a semi-finished good, not the finished product.”
Enter: the Duterte administration’s “Build, Build, Build” mantra.
‘Build, build, build’ woes, EDITORIAL, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 13th Jul 2020. “Since the government launched in 2017 its ambitious P8-trillion ‘Build, build, build’ (BBB) program – to stimulate economic activity and generate jobs to cut poverty and decongest the metropolis – it met skepticism. Beyond its gigantic size, the government’s track record of undertaking such projects is suspect.
“With only two years left, the Duterte administration is again scrambling to revise the BBB list, this time to include more health care infrastructure projects after the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the country’s severe lack of such facilities.
“Thus far, the record of BBB is below passing grade when gauged against the original pronouncement in 2017. The government now expects only half of the 100 projects in the revised list completed when Mr. Duterte steps down in 2022. The rest can only begin construction within the year or early next year, but with completion seen in the succeeding administration.
“The next administration should pursue all the carryover projects it will inherit, but it should learn a lesson or two from this administration’s experience. First and foremost is that the government cannot — and should not — do it all alone.”
Is that wishful thinking given “que sera, sera”? In the West, they say it differently: “kick the can.”
Who can afford to wait? We are way behind the curve.
Consider: “We, taxpayers, wish we can get back to business. The economy can’t wait too long to get revived. The situation on the ground is dire, as we common folks know. Local unemployment is on the rise. There is no agreement on what an ideal stimulus program should be. The big problem is that our National Treasury is empty.” [Arise... Create Cures!, Boo Chanco, DEMAND AND SUPPLY, The Philippine Star, 15th Jul 2020]
Can we pause right there? Haven’t we been here before – the times that tried our souls?
Will we again let our instincts kick into gear? Are we parochial and insular? We value hierarchy and paternalism that we rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.
Recall: “THESE are the times that try men’s souls.
“Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives everything its value.” [The Crisis by Thomas Paine, 23rd Dec 1776]
Consider: “Ours has never felt like genuine democracy. When my former professor Felipe Miranda once asked us to classify the Philippine political system, I couldn’t help but cite Aristotle’s notion of ‘oligarchy,’ namely the unruly rule of a feckless few. First, a sense of common humanity and shared duty among citizens is central to any democratic life. From Alexis de Tocqueville to Robert Putnam, countless thinkers have emphasized the centrality of ‘civic culture’ and social capital to the endurance of democracies.
“Over the past four years, thousands of our countrymen have perished under a scorched-earth anti-drug campaign, which has yet to bag a single real ‘big fish.’ In any democracy, one would have expected million-strong protests in response to such a bloody crackdown.
“But a 2017 survey by the Pew Research Center showed that only 15 percent of Filipinos were categorically committed to liberal democracy. That means more than 8 out of 10 Filipinos have expressed openness to, if not outright advocates of, more authoritarian rule. This unmistakable penchant for strongmen is the upshot of public fatigue with the absence of genuine democracy. It reflects the hollowness of liberal civil culture in our body politic.
“Our traditional politicians and populists are less Machiavellian geniuses than keen exploiters of this structural reality. Subverting an oligarchy-cum-democracy is far easier than many think, precisely because there are limited institutional checks on any determined despot.” [“Was PH ever a true democracy?” Richard Heydarian, HORIZONS, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 14th Jul 2020.]
Will Juan de la Cruz ever prove apt for self-government and the democratic way of life?
“Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]
“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to ‘tyranny’ loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]
Leadership is vital in every human undertaking. But then again, recall Lincoln’s definition of democracy, i.e., it is a government of the people, by the people, for the people.
Boo reminds us: “We, taxpayers, wish we can get back to business.”
That is like déjà vu to the writer. When he first arrived in Eastern Europe, the sense of resignation was palpable because of the decades they were under Soviet rule. He couldn’t remember how many times he heard, “We are poor, Bulgarians.” Implicit in the thought is, “There is no way forward.” As the wife sighed a few times, “What are we doing in this god-forsaken place?”
Today they are in celebration mode. Because what these friends accomplished in 17 years is beyond even their wildest imagination. Last year they doubled profitability that to face and beat Pandemic 2020, they have a year’s profit to burn. The first half is over, and they are up 40 percent with no letup in investment to fortify the virtuous circle they have been creating for several years.
But let’s get back to the Philippines.
Can the economic managers and legislators demonstrate leadership and work together – and do big things for the Filipino people?
For example, beat the hell out of our neighbors by (a) generating incremental GDP of $200 billion by moving up to an investment-industrial economy, and (b) benchmarking Central Luzon against the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone.
It’s the 21st century. And it demands specific skills as the 4Cs for humankind to thrive – i.e., critical thinking, creativity, collaboration, and communication.
In other words, beyond the K-12 challenge is the 4Cs as well as the science of metacognition. The key is to forward-think. Recall the simple questions: Where are we? Where do we want to be? How do we get there? And they complement the 4Cs and metacognition.
Think of why we kicked out the US military. But with what is happening in the West Philippine Sea, we relented and embraced the VFA.
Should we recall other instances when we failed to forward-think that we must now rectify?
For example, how do we generate economies of scale in agribusiness? How do we discard the absolute belief in a service-consumption economy and rely on OFW remittances and BPO revenues?
Recall that we assumed industry is beyond our core competencies. For example, we can’t be like Japan. Then we can’t be South Korea or Singapore or Taiwan.
Does that explain how Vietnam will surpass even Singapore?
We have been off base time and again. Can we pause one more time and ponder?
Because of our inward-looking bias – thanks to the spoils of our caste system – we don’t forward-think and why we succumb to the crab mentality. It equates to paternalism, as in dole-outs – which will not suffice given the gap in GDP that we must cover.
When we can’t visualize a far-out scenario, we can’t translate the trivial many into the vital few.
In other words, we won’t internalize Pareto and won’t be able to prioritize.
Look around, and we are the masters of analysis-paralysis. And the 42 industry road maps come to mind. But then again, it’s a manifestation of the crab mentality.
Vietnam won’t – nor can they – come up with 42 industry roads maps. How then do we figure out where to focus our monetary and fiscal interventions?
It took Christ to demonstrate why there are the Great Commandments. Translation: We mortals need lots of practice in forward-thinking, the 4Cs, and metacognition before we can get ahead of the curve. We need less of “Pinoy abilidad.”
In the meantime, Vietnam has demonstrated how they can overtake Singapore. Think of Samsung Vietnam and AirPods Vietnam. Their GDP per capita is still smaller than ours, yet they attracted these two major FDIs.
On the other hand, despite years of bragging that we’re the fastest growing economy, growing 6%-6.5%, our coffers are empty.
In the private sectors, heads would have rolled.
There is no free lunch, and we in the elite class cannot assume we don’t have a role to play to right this ship. “To whom much is given much is expected.”
“More Filipinos will be plunged into poverty.” But dole-outs won’t suffice given the gap in GDP that we must cover.
Gising bayan!
“Here is a land in which a few are spectacularly rich while the masses remain abjectly poor. And where freedom and its blessings are a reality for a minority and an illusion for the many. Here is a land consecrated to democracy but run by an entrenched plutocracy, dedicated to equality but mired in an archaic system of caste.
“But the fault was chiefly their own. Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]
“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]
“True social reform has little to do with politics. To unmoor ourselves from the burdens of the past, we must be engaged in the act of continual and conscious self-renewal. All men are partially buried in the grave of custom. Even virtue is no longer such if it is stagnant.
“Change begins when we finally choose to examine critically and then recalibrate the ill-serving codes and conventions handed down to us, often unquestioned, by the past and its power structures. It is essentially an act of imagination first.” [David Henry Thoreau; American essayist, poet, and philosopher; 1817-1862]
“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]
“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]
“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]
“Development is informed by a people’s worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]
“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]
“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]
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