Think forward – and then work back

Please recall the Theory of Change from postings ago.

Then consider: Investment per se is not the silver bullet. How do we think forward – and then work back? In other words, don’t we want to match if not outdo our neighbors?

We’re well into the 21st century, characterized by (a) innovation and (b) global competition.

Then think of our instincts: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy; ours is a culture of impunity.

That’s why the blog asked, do we want to mirror Russia?

Given our caste system, our debate is within the Philippine elite and chattering classes. What motivates us to move this nation forward when we benefit from its spoils?

The status quo serves us well. We are not suffering from our backwardness. Think of Afghanistan. We aren’t Afghanistan, but we aren’t Singapore either.

Without development experience, we turn “academic” – and celebrate technocrats.

And so, we accept logical yet linear and incremental thinking. But our neighbors have a different paradigm.

One plus one is two, yet one plus one can be three? It’s called “synergy,” the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. 

The bottom line: We have a cognitive challenge. But are we equipped to recognize it? See above; for our lack of development experience.

That’s why the blog wanted to hear from the winningest basketball coach. We can’t internalize how it is to overcome challenges – and win consistently to boot.

The Theory of Change illustrates why and how the desired change happens – i.e., in a particular context. Or, conversely, why it doesn’t come to fruition.

In other words, it is about the (a) why, (b) how, and (c) context of the desired change.

“It is focused in particular on mapping out or “filling in” the “missing middle” between what a program or change initiative does (its activities or interventions) and how these lead to the attainment of desired goals.

“It does this by first identifying the desired long-term goals and then works back from these to identify all the conditions (outcomes) that must be in place (and how these related to one another causally) for the goals to occur.” [What is Theory of Change? - Theory of Change Community]

Those familiar with the blog may recall how the above mirrors the photosynthesis phenomenon.

“There has been much good news that justifies optimism in our country’s ability to attract foreign direct investments. Today’s primary focus is signing a revision of the outdated Public Service Act (PSA) into law.

“Even before the law’s enactment, net FDI inflows in 2021 totaled $10.5 billion, higher than the $6.8 billion recorded in 2020 and 21.3 percent higher than the pre-pandemic figure of $8.7 billion.

“While this is good news, we still have a vast ground to recover, as we have lagged behind key ASEAN peers in attracting FDIs in our region. Total FDIs in the ASEAN region in 2020 were $137 billion. Indonesia attracted $18.31 billion, and Vietnam attracted $15.8 billion. Behind us are Cambodia and Malaysia at around $3 billion each.

“Our past leaders insisted on a narrow-minded Filipino First policy that has kept Filipinos last. It is difficult to believe that war-torn Vietnam, with a communist government, attracted more foreign investments and easily overtook us, a “supposedly” free enterprise economy.

“Credit Duterte for using his large political capital to break this Filipino First mindset among our rent-seeking business sector.” [“Attracting investments,” Boo Chanco, DEMAND AND SUPPLY, The Philippine Star, 30th Mar 2022]

But how do we think forward? How do we develop the brain’s chamber that houses “forward, lateral, and creative thinking”?

The good news is that we are not the only ones facing the challenge.

That is why Einstein and Jobs stand out among a handful of others. And we can add the Franciscans too. What do they have in common? They spoke to the “universe” – and its character. St. Francis, for example, embraced the oneness of creation.

In other words, these people aren’t necessarily like-minded. But they are beyond logical, linear, and incremental thinking. They can pull different elements and disciplines together.

In other words, we don’t have to be all business-minded – or economists. Philosophers contributed to the body of knowledge we know as quantum physics, i.e., it is beyond classical physics.

Here is a good exercise: Don’t we want to be a developed, first-world nation? Recall that Lee Kuan Yew spoke about the success of Singapore, “From third-world to first-world.”

Can we pause and figure that out?

There is no one stopping us from imagining, visualizing, and creating the future for Juan de la Cruz. Every developed nation started “poor.”

We like to talk about “pwede na ‘yan,” yet we all fall into its trap.

Let’s get to the context of the desired change. And here, the modern math concept of sets and subsets comes in handy.

Because we are a subset of this “universe,” we have to fight our instincts of parochialism and insularity. And the universe manifests dynamism and interdependence.

That brings us to the following pieces that can help us lead our cognitive exercise.

We want to be a developed, first-world nation in a dynamic and interdependent universe.

That is the playing field that we must recognize.

Where are we? Take our GDP per person. Ours is less than half of Thailand and not even a third of Malaysia’s?

Vietnam mirrors the route taken by the Asian Tigers before them and by China. 

Vietnam overtook us despite delivering GDP growth of 6%-7% over ten years. And ours came from OFW remittances and the BPO industry, i.e., over $50 billion. In contrast, Vietnam’s came from Samsung Vietnam, i.e., over $50 billion, and other export-based industries.

Those are the pieces that we want in front of us, so we can leverage our brainpower – i.e., visualize the big picture and create a new paradigm.

We cannot just talk about the differences between our neighbors and us. We must learn from them. In other words, we can’t be proudly parochial and insular. We are not God’s gift to humankind.

Our GDP per person is merely a fraction of Thailand's and Malaysia's, which is a good starting point to acknowledge if we want to be a developed, first-world nation.

We must think forward and then work back.

For example, It is not only Vietnam that was able to attract the best of both worlds, i.e., investment and technology, i.e., Samsung Vietnam. The Asian Tigers did it before them and why they left us in the dust export-wise.

Consider: Thailand and Malaysia’s exports compared to the Philippines are 3.3 and 2.6 times, respectively. But that isn’t a surprise because we allocate a mere 31% of GDP (end-use) to export goods and services against their 68% and 71%, respectively.

We don’t instinctively prioritize because we don’t think forward and then back. Add to that our bias for the crab mentality instead of the common good.

In other words, logical yet linear and incremental thinking ignores the imperative to prioritize.

We can’t still get over the 6%-7% GDP growth metric.

The blog introduced the metric of raising our GDP by an incremental $200 billion. And we can’t fathom that if we can’t shift paradigms as our neighbors did.

Our parochialism and insularity add to our blindness. For example, we continue to aspire to balance foreign and our interests as mutually exclusive. Think of Samsung Vietnam.

Or China. None of our neighbors had that blindness. Beg for Western money and technology, so said Lee and Mahathir to Deng.

How did that play out? Foreign investments brought state-of-the-art technology and accelerated technology development to these neighbors.

What about equity ownership? Has Singapore sold itself out to foreign investors? Neither did the rest of the Asian Tigers or China or Vietnam.

What is the challenge? We don’t have to reinvent the wheel. All we need to learn is to benchmark against best practice models [c/o] our neighbors.

See above; parochialism and insularity are blinding.

What is this universe? It is dynamism and interdependence.

Ukraine lost Crimea to the Russians in 2014. Yet, in eight years, it was able to repel Russia’s tank convoy that measured forty miles long and menacingly approached Ukraine to take down its capital and government.

Ukraine, unbeknownst to Russia, had rapidly developed a world-class military with arms and technology from the West. And without any foreign troops to the rescue.

Still, they aspire to join the EU and NATO.

Do they manifest dynamism and interdependence?

Let’s digress a bit for a real-world war story.

Those familiar with the blog may recall my Eastern European friends doing business in Ukraine. And on the ground in Kyiv, we have a local team headed by a former rocket scientist. He and his deputy enlisted in the Ukrainian army. And two others opted to relocate to Sofia, Bulgaria, from where they oversee the supply chain of products to Ukraine.

There is a need for our products, specifically snack food and personal care, and they come as frantic requests from the major retail chains transported from Bulgaria. Local factories in Ukraine, including those owned by MNCs, were damaged by the Russian bombings.

And here’s the rub: The Ukrainian retail chains are begging for any food items supplied from neighboring countries. And we are tapping our networks because of the humanitarian crisis.

But let’s get back to the Philippines.

Please think of how we kicked out the U.S. military. Unsurprisingly, China pursued its adventurism immediately after.

Can we pause — and ponder? 

Can we internalize the dynamism and interdependence inherent in this universe?

Why do we need to imagine, visualize, and create the future of Juan de la Cruz – to be a developed, first-world nation? Because we can’t craft a new paradigm if we don’t learn “forward, lateral, and creative thinking.”

And that starts with learning from the likes of Einstein and Jobs and the Franciscans. And learning from our neighbors. 

We must learn to think forward and then work back.

And that presupposes that we commit to and live out a set of principles.

Gising bayan!