Philippine prognosis

Why did the blog stop post after the 8th of April 2022? Events, personal and otherwise, were taking place.

The Philippine presidential election would be a month away, the 9th of May. And there’s the news report from Reuters, “Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February.”

On a personal note, in March, the wife and I took our first plane travel – since covid, outside road trips – and flew to Florida. (The last one was to return to New York after our annual visit to the Philippines at the end of February 2019, when covid had reared its ugly head.)

We spent two weeks driving from Tampa to Sarasota to Naples to Boca Grande – visited the daughter and son-in-law (still working from home.) And the in-laws themselves, who are snowbirds, dividing their time between Connecticut and Florida – and back to Tampa before returning to New York.

It was a celebration; the wife survived skin cancer (in the tongue) after three surgeries and thirty radiation sessions between March and July 2021. She’s a sturdy woman; she beat cancer too ten years ago.

And other trips came too: We traveled to Bulgaria in April, to be there until July – to be on the ground again, assisting my Eastern European friends with their business. And took a 10-day tour of Israel in May – the fourth attempt was a charm. Twice, armed conflicts derailed our plans, and the last one, covid, stood in the way.

Philippine prognosis.

Events taking place aren’t solely personal. They have geopolitical implications – think of the Asian crisis and then the global recession in 2008 – and what they mean for the Philippines.

Consider what my Eastern European friends requested from me upon arrival: “Please address the management team and talk about managing in times of crisis.”

They remember that I pursued restructuring projects at my old MNC-company. And one, in particular, they won’t forget is a country manager saying, “My wife asked me to ask you if you are firing me.”

“I am here to assist you, and your team answer three things: Where are you; where do you want to be; how do you get there.”

These Eastern European friends were giving me an earful. And one question I asked is: Why is the Ukraine business growing despite the Russian invasion?

Consider: Year-to-date, sales in Ukraine are up 19%, although the expectations are they would only increase 7% from the prior year despite the prices increases – owing to inflation, i.e., raw and packing materials and “logistics costs” and wages are also rising, beyond gas and energy.

Ukraine is their third-biggest market in Central and Eastern Europe. Following their successes in the region, they began to develop Western Europe. For example, Germany, year-to-date, is up 92% and should be 60% over the prior year. Compared to Ukraine, that is not surprising because the German business is still a fourth of the Ukrainian one even when Germany’s population and GDP per person are more significant, twice and over four times, respectively.

So, what crises are these friends raising? Moreover, they requested me to launch the “Sustainability” initiative of the company.

Those familiar with the blog may recall that nineteen years ago, this Eastern European enterprise was an MSME with sales of less than $10 million and had not made money in eight years. When I challenged them to gear up to be a one-hundred-million-dollar company, they could not comprehend it, save my friend who owns the company – who kept his sight glued to the future. They had to match and be competitive with the median size of a Fortune 500 consumer goods company.

Unsurprisingly, they blew past the hundred million mark years ago.

Philippine prognosis.

The blog came to life just before the PNoy administration took office. And Arangkada had just launched – “to double GDP growth in three years and target US$7.5 billion in annual FDI and US$100 billion in exports” – and thought the new administration as receptive.

And the blog felt that Arangkada could represent the “paradigm shift” that we could only talk about before. But the JFC, at the end of the Aquino administration, didn’t hide its frustration. It was same old, same old. And with the Duterte administration also over and with BBM at the helm, how optimistic can we be?

We have our work cut out for us until we recognize and internalize the imperatives of (a) a “growth mindset” and (b) the 3 Cs of a hardy mindset: commitment, challenge, and control.

Translation: How long have we been stepping forward with unsolicited advice to the government and our economic managers? These recommendations haven’t gained traction all these decades, whether strategic or tactical.

Why?

They are a product of a “fixed mindset” versus “growth mindset” or “fast” versus “conscious” thinking. That is to borrow from the more recent bodies of knowledge, aka neuroscience.

“Neuroscience examines the structure and function of the human brain and nervous system. Neuroscientists use cellular and molecular biology, anatomy and physiology, human behavior and cognition, and other disciplines to map the brain at a mechanistic level.

“Humans have an estimated hundred billion neurons, or brain cells, each with about a thousand connections to other cells. One of the great challenges of modern neuroscience is to map out all the networks of cell-to-cell communication—the brain circuits that process all thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. Emerging bit by bit, the resulting picture is known as “the connectome.” The ability of the brain to elaborate new connections and neuronal circuits—neuroplasticity—underlies all learning.

“Just as computers are hard-wired with electrical connections, the brain is hard-wired with neural connections. These connections link its various lobes and connect sensory input and motor output with the brain’s message centers, allowing information to come in and push outback.

“Neuroplasticity is the brain’s capacity to continue growing and evolving in response to life experiences. Plasticity is the capacity to be reshaped or altered; neuroplasticity, then, is the ability of the brain to adapt or change over time by creating new neurons and building new networks.

“Historically, scientists believed that the brain stopped growing after childhood. But current research shows that the brain can continue developing and changing throughout the lifespan, refining its architecture or shifting functions to different brain regions.

“Neuroplasticity says that it is possible to change dysfunctional thinking and behavior patterns and develop new mindsets, memories, skills, and abilities.

“It encompasses how nerve cells adapt to circumstances—to respond to stimulation by generating new tendrils of connection to other nerve cells, called synapses, and to respond to deprivation and excess stress by weakening “connections.”

“Neuroplasticity underlies the capacity for learning and memory, enabling mental and behavioral flexibility. Research has firmly established that the brain is a dynamic organ and can change its design throughout life, responding to experience by reorganizing connections – via so-called “wiring” and “rewiring.” Scientists sometimes refer to the process of neuroplasticity as structural remodeling of the brain.

“The brain changes most rapidly in childhood, but it’s now clear that the brain continues to develop throughout life. These changes in middle age highlight the role of neuroplasticity in learning across the lifespan.

“Neurogenesis refers to the creation of new brain cells. Scientists long believed that the brain was not capable of producing new neurons. Still, modern research has revealed that certain regions of the brain, particularly the hippocampus, are capable of generating new cells throughout adult life.” [Neuroscience | Psychology Today]

Should we pause and ponder?

Should our social scientists figure out how we can mitigate our instincts given newer sciences?

Consider how the blog constantly plays out these instincts: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy; ours is a culture of impunity.

“Your view of yourself can determine everything. If you believe that your qualities are unchangeable — the fixed mindset — you will want to prove yourself correct over and over rather than learning from your mistakes.

“If you have only a certain amount of intelligence, a particular personality, and a specific moral character, you’d better prove that you have a healthy dose of them. It simply wouldn’t do to look or feel deficient in these most basic characteristics.

“There’s another mindset in which these traits are not simply a hand you’re dealt and have to live with, always trying to convince yourself and others that you have a royal flush when you’re secretly worried it’s a pair of tens. In this mindset, the hand you possess is just the starting point for development. This growth mindset believes that your basic qualities are things you can cultivate through your efforts.” [Carol Dweck: A Summary of The Two Mindsets (fs.blog)]

Over the blog’s life, the postings have raised all these barriers to nation-building.

Are our prayers our only hope?

It could be a sheer coincidence: On the 9th of May, the day we Filipinos elected BBM, my wife and I visited the Basilica of the Annunciation and Mount of Beatitudes.

“The Basilica of the Annunciation is a Catholic church in Nazareth, in northern Israel. Catholic tradition holds it to be the site of the house of the Virgin Mary and where the angel Gabriel appeared to her and announced that she would conceive and bear the Son of God, Jesus – an event known as the Annunciation.

“The church was established at the site where the Annunciation took place according to one tradition. Another tradition, based on the apocryphal Protoevangelium of James, holds that this event commenced while Mary was drawing water from a local spring in Nazareth. And the Greek Orthodox Church of the Annunciation was erected at that alternate site.

“The Mount of Beatitudes is a hill in northern Israel, in the Korazim Plateau. And the belief is that it is where Jesus delivered the Sermon on the Mount.

“The traditional location for the Mount of Beatitudes is on the northwestern shore of the Sea of Galilee, between Capernaum and the archeological site of Gennesaret (Ginosar), on the southern slopes of the Korazim Plateau. Its negative altitude (around twenty-five meters below sea level, two hundred meters above the Sea of Galilee) makes it one of the lowest summits in the world.” [Wikipedia]

Are our prayers our only hope?

Can we develop a growth mindset?

What about the 3 Cs of a sturdy mindset?

“Commitment. To be involved with others and experience a sense of purpose and meaning; how ordinary people can do extraordinary things.

“Challenge. To appreciate that change rather than stability is the norm; new or demanding situations are learning opportunities; the importance of “thinking outside the box.”

“Control. Focus on situations where we have influence, not where we have little control; you have control only over yourself; you must be the one to change. Develop a problem-solving attitude; why are you unable to succeed in your efforts?” [Robert Brooks of Harvard University (faculty of Harvard Medical School; he has served as Director of the Department of Psychology at McLean Hospital]

Consider what my Eastern European friends requested from me upon arrival: “Please address the management team and talk about managing in times of crisis.”

McKinsey, the consultancy, submits that “volatility” can best describe the world today owing to the Russian attack on Ukraine.

No wonder my Eastern European asked me to talk about managing in times of crisis. They are still ahead of the curve yet recognize that “change rather than stability” is the norm.

On the other hand, given the Filipino instincts – if we are not better off today versus the days of Aquino and Duterte – how optimistic can we be?

Should we toss our blinders finally?