Friday, July 22, 2022

We can’t be too close to the trees that we miss the forest!

“Pinoy compassion” is in our DNA. But that’s why there is “leadership.”

If we think of a successful leader, we know that person would be “two steps” ahead of everyone else.

Leadership is looking at the trees but not missing the forest. Or, more profoundly, “leadership” is taking people from where there are to where they have never been before.

That’s why populism per se is not the answer to the challenge of development. Sadly, because of “Pinoy compassion,” we constantly fall into its trap and why the world has left us behind.

We know the jeepney is an excellent example that we call Filipino ingenuity. Unfortunately, if we had the leadership today, we would have an efficient public transportation system. Or, if we had one, we would have had a blueprint to bring us from the comprehensive agrarian reform program to global competitiveness in agribusiness.

Aren’t we yet horrified that we continue to pander to populist sentiments despite being the regional laggard?

And we in the Philippine elite and chattering classes have the onus of taking the leadership mantel?

What to do?

Those familiar with the blog may recall that it has spoken to Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking, Fast and Slow.

It may not interest many, yet the body of knowledge produced by Kahneman and Amos Tversky appeals across disciplines. It’s from “years of studying and documenting biases of intuitive thinking in various tasks – assigning probabilities to events, forecasting the future, assessing hypotheses, and estimating frequencies.

“Kahneman and Tversky presented their findings in Science magazine, a publication read by scholars in many disciplines. They documented systemic errors in the thinking of “normal” people. They traced these errors to the machinery of cognition rather than the corruption of thought by emotion.

“Their work is one of the most highly cited works in social science (more than three hundred scholarly articles in 2010.) And scholars in other disciplines found it useful, and the ideas of heuristic [translates to “roughly” or “rule of thumb”] and biases have been used productively in many fields, including medical diagnosis, legal judgment, intelligence analysis, philosophy, finance, statistics, and military strategy.

“For example, policy students noted that the availability of the “rule of thumb” – or heuristic – helps explain how some issues are highly salient in the public’s mind than others. Matters retrieved easily from memory tend to be of relative importance to the public. And this is determined by the extent of coverage in the media.

“When confronted with a problem, the machinery of intuitive thought does the best it can. If the individual has relevant expertise, she will recognize the situation, and the intuitive solution that comes to her mind is likely to be correct.

“When the question is complex, and a professional solution is not available, intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly – but it is not an answer to the original question. That is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.

“Many psychologists have explored the distinction between fast and slow thinking. Kahneman describes the mental life by the metaphor of two agents, System 1 and System 2, producing fast and slow thinking.”

Let’s hold it right there.

Recall how Lee Kuan Yew spoke to Singapore about moving from third-world to first-world. In other words, he defined the problem faced by Singapore not by the symptom of poverty but by the recognition that it was a third-world economy and nation.

Let’s try to “think slow.” Let’s not jump straightway to poverty and jobs as the problem and the solution. Or, for that matter, our neighbors, including the latest Asian Tiger, Vietnam, did not fall into the trap of “thinking fast,” as we did – and sadly, are still doing.

They begged for Western money and technology to rapidly pursue industrialization. Why? Doesn’t the world call wealthy nations the most industrialized or developed economies?

Here’s a quote from an earlier posting: “In other words, forward-thinking brings about lateral and creative thinking beyond logical yet linear and incremental thinking.

“Think of the (1) jeepney, (2) comprehensive agrarian reform program, (3) 4Ps, (4) OFW phenomenon, (5) call centers, (6) party-list system, and (7) Mandanas law, among others.

“They respond to the “here and now.” Sadly, this universe is in constant motion and expansion. It explains why the world has left us behind. For example, this century demands innovation and global competitiveness.

“Industrialize. Industrialize. Industrialize.

“It was amusing to read so many misinformed opinions from otherwise intelligent observers regarding President Junior’s veto of the law providing “perks” for the Bulacan airport economic zone. They thought the airport project, which had already broken ground, was a goner.

“That’s because Ramon Ang of San Miguel is an enigma to policy wonks and business rivals. He doesn’t make business decisions the way they do. He takes risks others won’t dream of taking. It’s partly jealousy too. They can’t accept that the upstart Tondo boy, who has not taken an economics course and with no MBA from some fancy foreign business school, is doing better than they are.” [“Airport economic zone,” Boo Chanco, DEMAND AND SUPPLY, The Philippine Star, 8th Jul 2022]

Consider: “THE NEW growth targets set by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s economic team are achievable if the government will continue to reopen the economy, address its debt burden, and pursue aggressive infrastructure spending.

“The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Friday approved the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal program for 2022 to 2028. The DBCC set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 6.5-7.5% this year, lower than the 7-8% given by the previous administration. However, it expects a 6.5-8% growth from 2023 to 2028, higher than the previous administration’s assumption of 6-7% from 2023 to 2025.” [“Marcos economic team’s targets achievable — experts,” BusinessWorld, 11th Jul 2022.]

“That is what the blog calls logical yet linear and incremental thinking. And it comes from a lack of experience in development to match our neighbors.

“Let’s bring it up one more time: “The economic development of the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone took off explosively. The region’s GDP grew from just over US$8 billion in 1980 to more than US$89 billion in 2000 and US$221.2 billion in 2005. During that period, the average real GDP growth rate in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone exceeded 16 percent, well above the People’s Republic of China’s national figure of 9.8 percent.

“Since the onset of China’s reform program, the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone has been the fastest-growing portion of the fastest-growing province in the fastest-growing large economy in the world. In the process, a region that was once largely agricultural has emerged as a manufacturing platform of global importance. It is a world leader in producing electronic goods, electrical and electronic components, watches and clocks, toys, garments and textiles, plastic products, and various other goods.” [Wikipedia]

“Why is that over our heads? Answer: Our caste system – expressed in our value of hierarchy and paternalism – consigns us to mediocrity.”

In other words, our caste system explains why we can’t get beyond System 1 thinking above.

“Pinoy compassion” is in our DNA. But that’s why there is “leadership.”

If we think of a successful leader, we know that person would be “two steps” ahead of everyone else.

Leadership is looking at the trees but not missing the forest. Or, more profoundly, “leadership” is taking people from where there are to where they have never been before.

And we in the Philippine elite and chattering classes have the onus of taking the leadership mantel?

Gising bayan!

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