Here’s the predicate that we keep reinforcing – i.e., our instincts: We Filipinos are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.
In other words, our caste system has put “dynamism” beyond reach.
And this is the other predicate that we’ve put beyond the reach of Juan de la Cruz: The character of this universe is that of dynamism and interdependence.
Aren’t we proud of our worldview?
Consider: “2050 take me there,” Bernardo M. Villegas, Human Side Of Economics, BusinessWorld, 12th Oct 2021.
“Following the experience of South Korea, the Philippines has the potential of becoming a First World or advanced economy in the year 2050. That is consistent with the long-term projection that Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. made in 2012 that the Philippines will be the 16th largest economy in the world in 2050.”
Nice try, Bernie.
Here’s where we stand in industrialization efforts, against our neighbors: Philippines = 30.6%; Vietnam = 33.3%; Thailand = 36.2%; Malaysia = 37.6%; Indonesia = 41%.
Is that a half-full glass to Juan de la Cruz? Or does it confirm that we’re the regional laggard, if not a disaster?
Translation: That gap between us and Vietnam spells the failings of all our poverty efforts put together. See below; we must “design” and pursue Philippine agriculture to be a commercial success, not a poverty or livelihood program.
And that is why the blog keeps raising the distinctions between analysis and analytics. There are two sides to an equation; that focusing on activity as inputs and productivity will miss the outcome as in competitiveness and marketability. And they come from logical yet linear and incremental thinking.
Whatever happened to Arangkada? The blog had high hopes for the Philippines when PNoy became president, and the JFC presented “Arangkada” on a silver platter. In other words, by the end of Duterte’s term, we would have wasted two presidencies and a dozen years, and here we are still beating our chests for what will become of the Philippines?
Is dynamism in our DNA?
“Arangkada Philippines 2010: A Business Perspective is about creating a bright future for the Philippines, the 12th most populous country and probably the 10th or 9th by 2030.
“Arangkada is a guidebook to a better Philippines, with the Per Capita Income (PCI) of a middle-income economy, robust investment levels, better infrastructure, and higher government revenues to pay for social services like education and health care.
“Absolute poverty would recede via inclusive growth with less malnutrition, crime, and insurgency. With more rewarding opportunities at home, Filipinos would have less reason to work abroad.
“Catching up and keeping up is an imperative, not a choice. The Philippines has lagged for too long, losing competitiveness, despite its immense potential and location in the fastest-growing region with 60% of the global population. More than ever, opportunities abound for the Philippines to improve trade and investment ties in Asia and elsewhere and advance towards high-income status.
“Despite a dynamic population and a land blessed with natural resources, economic progress has been slow. In most international ranking surveys, the Philippines is slipping.
“The country has not improved its competitiveness as much as others and continues to slide despite recent GDP growth and rising PCI. The country should strive to move twice as fast – ‘Arangkada’ – which means ‘to accelerate.’
By now, those familiar with the blog are sick and tired of hearing that our eight top companies – collectively – can’t even match either (a) the $60 billion from OFW remittances and the BPO industry or (b) the contribution of one entity, Samsung Vietnam, to the Vietnamese economy. [Translation: We are lionizing the reality that these companies aren’t propelling this nation forward? They represent “pwede na ‘yan” to a T. How much insanity are we going to take? Calling our economists: To keep dishing out our meager tax revenues and digging deeper into LGUs is the guarantee that the Philippines has zero chance to be the next Asian Tiger. CREATE plus SIPP are akin to schoolwork but toothless in the real world. Conversely, it will be a windfall for these eight top companies. But they will still not deliver $60 billion, collectively.]
Then came AirPods Vietnam.
Surprise. Surprise.
What comes next?
“Vietnam carmaker Vinfast eyes start of U.S. deliveries in late 2022, CEO says,” Ben Klayman, Reuters, Yahoo, 14th Oct 2021.
“Vietnamese automaker Vinfast will begin taking pre-orders in the U.S. market for its VF e35 and e36 electric SUVs in the first half of 2022 and expects to begin delivering them by the end of the year, global Chief Executive Michael Lohscheller said.
‘It’s early to make any sales predictions, but VinFast will unveil two of our latest EV models at the 2021 Los Angeles auto show this November, thus marking our official introduction to the American market,’ he said in an email to Reuters.
“The company expects to begin delivering its first EVs in Vietnam starting in December, said Lohscheller, a former Volkswagen and Opel executive, named to his position at Vinfast in July.
“The automobile arm of Vietnam’s largest conglomerate, Vingroup, Vinfast has an office in California and expects to inaugurate 60 U.S. showrooms next year, he said.
“Vinfast has grand ambitions to launch EV sales in the U.S. and European markets, taking on Tesla and other automakers. Funding that plan is Vingroup, which was founded as an instant noodle business in post-Soviet Ukraine and now has interests spanning real estate, resorts, schools, hospitals, and smartphones.
“Founded in 2017, Vinfast is aiming to compete on vehicle size and price. The carmaker’s vehicles will also come with a battery leasing scheme that means the cost of the battery, one of the most expensive components of an EV, will not be included in the final price.
“VinFast, with an assembly plant in Vietnam, is planning to conduct most of its U.S. sales online. Lohscheller said the company will ‘keep an eye on the possibility of a manufacturing facility in the U.S.’
“The company has targeted global EV sales next year of 15,000 vehicles, down from its prior goal of 56,000 due to the worldwide semiconductor chip shortage.
“To fund its growth, Vinfast has said it is eyeing a public listing in the United States.”
Can we pause — and ponder?
Recall that the blog never fails to stress that “cognitive development” is a function of experience. And isn’t that what Vietnam demonstrates?
Here’s a quote from an earlier posting: “The next president must preside over Philippine Inc. by doggedly pursuing commercial success, innovation and be a paragon of good governance, not a culture of impunity.
“And innovation borrows from the instincts of Steve Jobs, and he defined creativity as simply connecting the dots. And it presupposes forward- and lateral thinking.
Thanks to a friend, I watched VP Robredo at the Manila Rotary meeting, including the Q&A.
Consider: At my old MNC-company, succession planning was a dominant agenda item. And myself needed to do the homework diligently to be equipped to pass judgment on people’s career — and call the shots to run businesses in over 200 countries and territories successfully.
But perfection is not of this world; even I can’t guarantee my decisions. And it comes back to the character of this universe, i.e., dynamism and interdependence. [Translation: The great Babe Ruth had a batting average of 0.342. In the private sector, if that’s how measly they deliver against plans, they’re gone.]
We always had a plan B. Even more, because for certain positions, we had several people lined up. And we kept giving them development assignments that would prepare them when their time came.
What’s the verdict on Candidate Robredo? I will quote Tony Lopez, one of the three that posed the questions: You are super good.
She has a clear-thinking head. And it comes from her principles. Yet, she’s above giving a populist response. The best way to describe her leadership would be principled but not dogmatic.
In other words, she scores high in “cognitive development.” She can navigate the continuum of binary and relative thinking.
Her leadership presence was on display: She articulated how she ran the OVP, including how they executed plans and recognized gaps to fill. In other words, she knows how to weave together the elements of a solution or initiative. That comes from being principled but not dogmatic, and she instinctively demonstrates dynamism and interdependence.
She is more articulate than Biden and will be more inspiring because she can be steps ahead of her people or whomever she is leading.
Let’s hold it there.
What else would I wish to figure if I were face-to-face with VP Robredo? For example, how will she weave the following? How forward-thinking is she? How much lateral thinking does she employ?
“Education, health care, the 4Ps, MSMEs, among others, are all critical.
“But we are GDP-starved — as in, we are oxygen-starved and need it first and foremost.
“Can she assemble a task force comprised of Bill Gates, the CEO of Apple, the CEO of Samsung, and Warren Buffett?
“Why?
“Beg for foreign money and technology — and cover our deficits measured against our neighbors!
“That’s what Lee and Mahathir said to Deng – and even Vietnam followed suit.
“That is how our neighbors left us one after the other.
“And so, we need a quantum leap of $200 billion in GDP to leapfrog the economic output of these neighbors!
“And give that much-needed oxygen boost to Juan de la Cruz.
“Can we shift paradigms, imagine the Philippines as Philippine Inc.?
“How will that translate to the challenges we face in agribusiness?
“We must redefine the DA’s reason for being? “Design” and pursue Philippine agriculture to be a commercial success, i.e., it is beyond a livelihood or poverty program. Even Steve Jobs did his homework by figuring out how innovative companies can create a continual portfolio of winning products globally.
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. Learning and innovation go hand in hand, and the arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow. Think Philippine Inc., not the Philippine economy.
“In other words, we have been bragging about our manufacturing uptick and the 6%-7% GDP growth rate. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking, and what we did yesterday will not be sufficient for tomorrow.
“Don’t expect me as president to recycle economic managers from the past. We are the laughingstock of the region. And for economists that are not present at this conference, I invite you to apply to my administration.
“You know what I want. I want what is best for our country.”
Let’s get back to the premise of this posting:
Here’s the predicate that we keep reinforcing – i.e., our instincts: We Filipinos are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.
In other words, our caste system has put “dynamism” beyond reach.
And this is the other predicate that we’ve put beyond the reach of Juan de la Cruz: The character of this universe is that of dynamism and interdependence.
It used to be that “dynamism” was associated with the Americans. But the Asian Tigers, China, and most recently, Vietnam, have coopted the distinction.
Whatever happened to “Arangkada”?
Is the year 2050 the soonest we can aspire for greatness? Does that mirror the 6%-7% GDP growth rate that made us proud for several years yet has remained the regional laggard?
“Cognitive development is a function of experience. For example, Singapore’s fantastic adventure in traversing poverty to prosperity explains why they can keep their advantage even when competing against well-developed Western nations. But that is too far advanced for Juan de la Cruz to internalize. Conversely, laggards like Latin American or African countries keep falling farther behind.”
How do we break out from the group of laggards?
Gising bayan!
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