Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Think Philippine Inc., not Philippine Economy

Recall the banner of this blog, “Philippine Economy: Reinventing Ourselves.”

And why it introduced the science of “thinking.” This subject of “thinking” is as challenging as can be.

Consider: Edward de Bono, the father of “Lateral Thinking,” failed in his efforts to get “thinking” into the education field. On the other hand, everyone salutes Einstein, and in more contemporary times, there is Steve Jobs.

The consolation is that at Yale, they offer a course in figuring out these geniuses.

What about us Filipinos? We have seen every neighbor – one after the other – leave us in the dust, and what are we thinking? We still believe in our heart of hearts that we are “learned” and “sophisticated.”

It’s the caste system.

It also explains the current crisis in America. White Americans, especially Trumpians, see themselves as belonging to the higher class. And this sense is reinforced by their belief in a higher order, i.e., their Christian faith. Translation: Holier than thou. Everyone else outside the tribe is undeserving. And this slice of the population is roughly 40 percent. And it explains why Trump is still in the news.

But we Filipinos must not laugh. We are the regional laggard, if not the sick man of Asia, because of our caste system.

How can we reinvent ourselves then?

When I was a regional manager at my old MNC-company, the only place I’d hear local managers drop the buzzword “paradigm shift” was in the Philippines. Not in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, India, China, or even Singapore. In fairness, the Indians would bend my ears to their discourses on different topics.

And when FVR was president, I kept hearing, “Think global, act local.”

But why did the company invest more in the other countries? Sadly, we were not alone. And what’s the fallout?

Fast-forward to the present. Every time our plane would land at NAIA, the first thing the wife and I would see out the windows was Philippine poverty. And it always reminds me of the New Yorker-guest I had 40 years ago, and his first impression of Manila was its poverty.

Can we go beyond buzzwords? Can we shift paradigms, imagine the Philippines as Philippine Inc.?

What’s the difference? In the private sector – especially in today’s highly competitive world where innovation is dizzying – the imperative of personal responsibility and the egalitarian ethos is pronounced. Translation: Rank has no privileges; miscreants pay the price.

Even in the public sector, it happens. Think of now, former New York Governor Cuomo.

Of course, Trump has been getting away with murder. But that’s another story. Translation: That’s why I have no respect for US politics – i.e., I visualized the future when the family transferred to New York. In other words, the 6th Jan insurrection in the Capitol was visible even as early as decades ago, if not earlier.

How? Because freedom and democracy are beyond merely winning – and beyond party. It is about the common good, stupid!

But then consider: If there was the “apple-tree” transgression at Eden, we had the “banking-tree” transgression in contemporary times. That was when the financial community crossed the line between investment and retail banking.

“Historically, retail banks have used cash deposited by savers for investment activities. Following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the United States sought to reduce the risk of savings used to pay losses incurred on bad investments with the Glass–Steagall legislation of 1933, which controlled affiliations between banks and securities firms. This legislation was weakened in the 1990s, culminating in its abolition in 1999 by the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act. That triggered a spate of international mergers, creating companies so vital to running the global financial system that they were ‘too big to fail.’ Investment losses in the financial crisis of 2007–2008 threatened to bankrupt these systemically important banks and national governments felt obliged to bail them out at great cost.” [Wikipedia]

And if there was Satan at Eden, in more contemporary times, we have bad actors – as in despots.

“The Syrian civil war started on 15th Mar 2011 and has developed into the largest movement of people globally since WWII. It is also a very complex war due to the many players involved, either directly or indirectly. The main groups directly in Syria are (1) Government forces under President Al-Assad, whom Iran and Russia support, and (2) Opposition forces: Free Syrian Army, Islamic Front, Rojava (Kurds), Army of Conquest, and ISIS or ISIL.” [Google]

And if we add “climate change,” it may prod us to believe that this world is coming to an end.

I stood by the Grand Canyon a few times, remember how minuscule humankind can be, and imagine how monstrous the ice age played out. And whenever I fly by the Alps – which is almost 5,000 meters high – I would remember that archeologists found particles that came from under the sea.

Then consider how long planet Earth has been around: “Earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old, plus or minus about 50 million years. Scientists have scoured the Earth, searching for the oldest rocks to date radiometrically. In northwestern Canada, they discovered rocks about 4.03 billion years old. Then, in Australia, they discovered minerals about 4.3 billion years old. Researchers know that rocks continuously recycle due to the rock cycle, so they searched for data elsewhere. Since it is thought the bodies in the solar system may have formed at similar times, scientists analyzed moon rocks collected during the moon landing and even meteorites that have crash-landed on Earth. Both of these materials dated to between 4.4 and 4.5 billion years.” [National Geographic]

Recall that the blog often references the character of this universe, i.e., dynamism and interdependence.

And despite the Hubble Space Telescope, scientists recognize that there are zillions more that humankind can’t figure out. For example, beyond the galaxies in constant forward motion while in multiplication mode, some go extinct.

I would only smile when I hear people assume their choices are tops and irrefutable. And these are the ones to whom innovation is foreign.

Recall how humankind deals with – and thrives despite – the dynamism of the universe, and thanks to Maslow, we now know and must respect the hierarchy of human needs.

The Catholic Church may have a problem with that, but it is not a surprise, and it is the epitome of the caste system.

The saving grace is that they recognize a higher being between Einstein and his pal (at the Manhattan Project) William Pollard, a physicist-priest. Still, they understood dynamism:

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Albert Einstein.

Let’s get back to the Philippines – and consider: “Filipinos are still far from reaping the benefits of the rapidly advancing digital age. While preparedness for the Fourth Industrial Revolution now preoccupies business and economic planners, the essential homework remains to equip the vast mass of Filipinos even to be part of it.

“PIDS notes the urgent need to remove regulatory barriers and expand market opportunities to allow ICT players to invest, build, and innovate, regardless of size, ownership, and technology—and not limit network-building to enfranchised telecom firms. BSP also stresses financial education, digital literacy, and consumer protection as vital to financial inclusion.

“The work ahead is daunting, but critical and urgent if we are to bridge the great divide not only within our country but also between our country and the rest of the rapidly digitalizing world.” [“The great divide,” Cielito F. Habito, NO FREE LUNCH, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 5th Oct 2021]

But here’s another perspective: “We have a young, growing, and English-speaking population, an asset that the ongoing pandemic has not diminished. Our fertility rate will continue to be above replacement (2.1 babies per fertile woman) for at least the next 20 years. In a world where developed countries are suffering from the rapid aging of their population, we have our pluses: our median age of 24 will continue to support our two most significant engines of growth. They are the vast remittances sent by the Overseas Filipino Workers and the earnings of 1.3 million well-educated workers in the BPO-IT sector. These two account for some 12 to 15 percent of our GDP.

“Together with the other countries in the Indo-Pacific region, we will be benefitting from the rise of the Asian Century.” [“2050 take me there,” Bernardo M. Villegas, The Human Side of Economics, BusinessWorld, 5th Oct 2021]

Let’s add another viewpoint: “Experience, therefore, is not the clearest lens through which to view the forces buffeting the global economy. The world has changed dramatically since the 1970s, and globalization has created a vast network of interdependencies. The system now faces a new, unique test.” [“Is the world economy going back to the 1970s(?),” The Economist, 5th Oct 2021]

Then consider: “Is America Inc getting less dynamic, less global and more monopolistic(?),” The Economist, 16th Sep 2021.

“The Economist set out to test all three hypotheses about American business: that it is less dynamic, less global, and more concentrated. The results appear nowhere near as bleak as the doomsayers would have you believe.” [“Is America Inc getting less dynamic, less global and more monopolistic(?),” The Economist, 16th Sep 2021]

Remember Japan Inc.? And note The Economist also calls the US, America Inc.

The blog often references Japan Inc. because of how it undermined the US manufacturing prowess – and economy. That was when my old MNC-company moved the family to New York, and I was involved in addressing the shortcomings of US higher education given its impact on the private sector.

“A primary feature of Japan, Inc. was the crucial role of Japan’s trade ministry, which guided Japan’s development in the postwar years in a strategy of export-led growth, known as the Japanese Miracle.

“This growth was due to American investment immediately after the war and government regulation of the economy.

“Close collaboration between corporate executives and government officials enabled the government to create winners. Another major characteristic of Japan Inc. was institutionalized business alliances, known as keiretsu, which dominated Japan’s economic activity. The Japanese miracle created Japan, Inc. and lasted until the 1991 Japanese financial crisis.” [“Japan Inc.,” Adam Hayes, Investopedia, 2nd Nov 2021]

Those familiar with the blog know that it never fails to stress that systems aren’t static and are merely human constructs. And Japan, followed by the Asian Tigers, China, and Vietnam, demonstrated a dynamic system.

None of these economic miracles are pure free enterprise models. And so, even The Economist is calling the US, America Inc.

Can we think of the Philippines as Philippine Inc.?

Should our economic managers, legislators, and economists be the first ones to demonstrate that we Filipinos can shift paradigms?

In other words, it is not about beating our chests because we can deliver a 6%-7% GDP growth rate.

Here’s a quote from an earlier posting: “We cannot just repeat the Marcos to Cory movie.

Let’s hold it right there.

We wanted Cory after Marcos because she was upright and God-fearing, and compassionate. Compassionate, especially to the poverty-stricken Juan de la Cruz.

But here’s where the science of “thinking” comes into play. We are glossing over what’s at the heart of our caste system, the value of hierarchy and paternalism.

The hierarchy must lead the war on poverty. Even Duterte said the same thing but differently, i.e., fight poverty via the war on drugs.

Recall that there are two sides to an equation. There is populism on one side and leadership on the other. And leadership is not one-dimensional even when it must demonstrate the ability to synthesize.

Recall how I did my homework given the challenge of succession planning in an MNC – in over 200 countries and territories. And at the heart of it is leadership development.

But then again, the science of “thinking” demands forward- and lateral thinking. Why did I dig deeper into the UK civil service system of selection? And then, the UK, because of the politicians playing politics, bet and lost on Brexit.

In other words, perfection is not of this world. How then can one-dimensional – logical yet linear and incremental – thinking even have a prayer in today’s highly competitive globalized world?

“We need a leadership that can grasp that we are GDP-starved. The ‘leadership’ must synthesize and pull out what matters, given our instincts of the crab mentality.

“Education, health care, the 4Ps, MSMEs, among others, are all critical. 

"But we are GDP-starved — as in, we are oxygen-starved and need it first and foremost.

“Recall that the blog spoke to Mayor Isko, creating a task force comprised of Bill Gates, the CEO of Apple, the CEO of Samsung, and Warren Buffett.

“Why?

“Beg for foreign money and technology — and cover our deficits measured against our neighbors!

“That’s what Lee and Mahathir said to Deng – and even Vietnam followed suit.

“That is how our neighbors left us one after the other.

“And so, we need a quantum leap of $200 billion in GDP to leapfrog the economic output of these neighbors! 

“And give that much-needed oxygen boost to Juan de la Cruz.

“Then recall my Eastern European friends, an MSME that was a losing proposition for eight years, becoming a model for Europe because of their commercial success, innovation culture, and business ethics.

“And ‘innovation,’ as the blog has repeatedly stressed, borrows from the instincts of Steve Jobs. He defined creativity as simply connecting the dots. And that presupposes forward- and lateral thinking. If it isn’t apparent yet, it is what this posting illustrates.

“The next president must preside over Philippines Inc. by doggedly pursuing commercial success, innovation and be a paragon of good governance, not a culture of impunity.

“We cannot keep to our crab mentality.

“Forget about OFW remittances and the BPO industry, our top eight companies, the ‘sweet spot’ in our consumer market, the 4Ps, our MSMEs, and the Build, Build, Build program. They collectively don’t generate the levels of GDP to feed Juan de la Cruz – or fund the Department of Agriculture.

“But then again, that’s why in figuring out a solution, we must be on the lookout for the distinctions between ‘drivers’ and ‘enablers.’

“For example, nation-building is beyond economics. Economic policies, whether fiscal or monetary, are enablers, not drivers.

“That’s why the blog always speaks to ‘photosynthesis.’ We need more than economics.

“To illustrate: Living things need oxygen released into the air by plants. But plants need ‘energy’ from sunlight, carbon dioxide absorbed from the air, water through the soil, and the glucose generated.

“It’s called an ecosystem. That’s why the blog calls out higher education, where every discipline insists on being the drivers, not acknowledging when they are the enablers.

“Yet, it is not a license for Juan de la Cruz to be ‘sabog’ – as in the crab mentality. The operative word is to synthesize – to combine several pieces into a single or unified entity.”

We are debating who the next Philippine president must be.

Consider: Can the person we are endorsing look economic managers, legislators, and economists in the eye and say: We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. Learning and innovation go hand in hand, and the arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.

Think Philippine Inc., not the Philippine economy.

Gising bayan!

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