Foresight: To contemplate the future

“It is what distinguishes our species . . . Our singular foresight created civilization and sustains society . . . The power of prospection is what makes us wise. Looking into the future, consciously and unconsciously, is a central function of our large brain, as psychologists and neuroscientists have discovered — rather belatedly, because for the past century most researchers have assumed that we’re prisoners of the past and the present.” [We Aren’t Built to Live in the Moment, Martin E. P. Seligman and John Tierney, The New York Times, 19th May 2017]

Does it explain who and what we are, from our instincts to our philosophy or worldview? And why we prefer the status quo over change and dynamism? We’re proud to live in the moment if not in the past. And “bahala na” and “mañana” come naturally that we are a disaster waiting to happen? And we wonder why innovation and competitiveness don’t define us?

For example, Du30 promised to make miracles within the first 3 months or 6 months of his term. Or has that been taken back? (No different from Trump taking back his campaign rhetoric!) Does that sound like contemplating the future or was it retail and transactional politics and business as usual, promising to cater to populist demands, overnight miracles and dole outs? But we believed it because we are clutching at straws, as though it was something new? Marcos promised the Great Society too!

We wanted to spurn the West and go to bed with China and Russia, and now Du30 says China threatened us, as in “or else we declare war.” What about Russia, the flavor of the month? As some would know, the writer and his Eastern European friends are doing business in Russia – and former Soviet satellite states – and reading how gaga we are about Russia is typical of first-timers, like we have a new toy.

In case we have forgotten, Russia – principally an oligarchy – is yet to be a developed economy, propped up by its oil reserves but reeling from depressed prices like Saudi Arabia. But unlike Saudi Arabia, they have not pursued a Plan B on top of a purposely massive development efforts like the Saudis did, giving the world a glimpse of what tomorrow looks like today.

Put another way, China has economic clout but not Russia.

In a recent post the blog talked about “Social Capital – the social networks and the norms of trustworthiness and reciprocity that arise from them, that is, as they create conditions of trust, cooperation, interdependence and safety,” from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

Imagine Trump, Putin and Duterte. Would they represent the essence of social capital? 

And . . . surprise, surprise, was it Du30 or his Finance Secretary that wanted to reject the EU aid? Is what we call meddling reflective of our culture of impunity that we instinctively hide through parochialism and insularity? Can we internalize the rule of law? Think Nixon or Clinton re impeachment. Or the appointment of Mueller to probe Trump-Russia ties. And if we have forgotten too, rule of law is central to development, including the journey from poverty to prosperity.

We are so hung up on the West that to this day we see ourselves as victim. When will we grow up? Every Asian Tiger – including China – embraced if not begged for Western money and technology. Get over it! We found another excuse to sweep [our dirt] under the carpet!

How we wish as parents we’re perfect. But perfection is not of this world. Recall the 3 Cs of a hardy mindset (from the work of Robert Brooks of Harvard University), the third being Control. Focus on situations where we have influence over not where we have little if any control; you have control only over yourself, you must be the one to change. Develop a problem-solving attitude; why are you unable to succeed in your efforts?

In short, we must grow up! For example, forget about Thailand copying our economic development blueprints, with due respect to Neda’s AmBisyon Natin 2040, and instead let’s invite – via the Asean – Singapore, China and Malaysia to show us how to replicate the Singapore miracle or the Pearl River Delta economic zone or Iskandar Malaysia.

We have yet to demonstrate a track record in development. Beyond benchmarking, we need an experienced group to guide us through a restructuring initiative, to borrow from a private sector practice.

A restructuring initiative is a rethink of the enterprise. For instance, in the case of the Philippines, we must undo the assumption that we are a service economy if we are to replicate the success of the Asian Tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

According to Investopedia, they: (a) consistently maintained high levels of economic growth since the 1960s fueled by exports and rapid industrialization, which enabled these economies to join the ranks of the world's richest nations; (b) share common characteristics that include a focus on exports, an educated populace and high savings rates; and (c) were resilient enough to withstand local crises, i.e., theAsian financial crisis of 1997, as well as global shocks, including the credit crunch of 2008.

There is a body of knowledge that resides at Oxford University that explains the journey of nations from poverty to prosperity –  to understand the factors that influence economic development and the different development paths that countries across the world have taken.

They are: (a) from anarchy to a centralized state; (b) from centralized to inclusive states; (c) identities and narratives; economic development needs an alignment between power and identities; (d) growth through urbanization and industrialization; exploiting scale and specialization; (e) external influences that matter and must be managed: trade flows, capital flows, labor flows, and international governance rules.

Sadly, we believe that we know better that the answer is Federalism, for example, if not the war on drugs? And consistent with our downward spiral, martial law is now back in the equation. For a people that missed every economic miracle associated with the Asian Tigers, it is high time we step up to the plate.

We are handicapped foresight-wise to contemplate the future of Juan de la Cruz.

The evidence? The declaration of martial law in Mindanao, among countless others, if we’re not running around like a headless chicken yet.

Mindanao’s problem is not new, who can say all it needs is 6 months of martial law? Recall the 6 months to win the war on drugs or to fix Metro Manila traffic? Just like the rest of our woes, they boil down to our bankruptcy in social capital. We are no longer unnerved by a culture of impunity – the consequence of our contemptible rule-of-law quotient. What a pity! Poor Juan de la Cruz!

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

“A future . . . ultimately . . . beyond any of us”

“Through Apple’s new headquarters, Steve Jobs was planning the future of Apple itself—a future beyond him and, ultimately, beyond any of us.” [One More Thing: Inside Apple’s insanely great (or just insane) new mothership, Steven Levy, wired.com, 16th May 2017]

If that’s the concept behind the new Apple HQs, shouldn’t it be the philosophy behind Philippine higher education? “If one should advance the proposition that university and college education must guarantee the employability of the graduate—and therefore curriculum must match industry, market and governmental needs, there will be virtually unanimous, even enthusiastic, concurrence!” [The colonization of higher education, Fr. Ranhilio Aquino, Pensées, Manila Standard, 15th May 2017]

And then Fr. Aquino would make the point: “There is nothing that impoverishes a nation more than citizens with emaciated spirits and shriveled souls! The academic is by definition left-of-center! It is the refusal to accept established answers, the choice to avoid the well-trod course . . . [O]ne must be unshackled from the demands of the quotidian and the enslavement of the commonplace, the imperialism of the ‘way things are’—lured by the prospect of ‘how things can be’ . . . In fact, many of the discoveries and inventions that have given modernity its present configuration were not the products of specialists . . . That breed will soon be extinct if we allow the present colonization of higher education to go unchecked.”

Thank God, Fr. Aquino is not alone. “Living life well, or general education versus professional education, Gerardo P. Sicat,” CROSSROADS TOWARD (PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROGRESS), The Philippine Star, 10th May 2017.

“For some time now, a controversy on the content of education in the University of the Philippines has been raging. It is, in a way, the battle of the ages on the nature of education . . . The professional schools want to cut the amount of time spent on students to learn more ‘general education,’ or GE, courses which are outside their field of specialized studies.

“The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) – which incidentally is also my alma mater – has one of the clearest statements on the importance of GE courses. From its general admission statements in its University catalogue:

“MIT provides a substantial and varied program in the humanities, arts and social sciences (HASS) that forms an essential part of the education of every undergraduate. This program is intended to ensure that students develop a broad understanding of human society . . . The requirement enables students to deepen their knowledge in a variety of cultural and disciplinary areas and encourages the development of sensibilities and skills vital to an effective and satisfying life . . . and a member of society.”

A broad understanding of human society. Is that what Juan de la Cruz lacks and why our sense of community and the common good is suspect at best?

And why we’re the regional laggard . . . while our neighbors, one after the other, turned into economic tigers? More to the point, our efforts to extol the OFW phenomenon and more recently the BPO industry, in our desire to address unemployment and poverty, proved that they’re not only short-sighted but even more reinforced our parochial and insular instincts – and put us on a slippery slope.

But we are a poor people! Because we chose to be foolish, and built upon the sand – and are caught in a vicious circle of our own making.

“For a society to thrive, members of that society must live in such a way that they create conditions of trust, cooperation, interdependence and safety – the conditions that make up social capital.” [Reference.com]

“Social capital, defined as ‘the social networks and the norms of trustworthiness and reciprocity that arise from them,’ is a powerful predictor of many social goods, including people’s health and happiness, levels of economic development, well-working schools, safe neighborhoods, and responsive government.” [Social Capital Building Toolkit, Thomas Sander/Kathleen Lowney, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University]

The commitment to the common good is why a society thrives. Beyond creating the condition of trust is the condition of cooperation, of interdependence and of safety.

On the other hand, “Why does corruption survive?”, Henry J. Schumacher, BusinessMirror, 20th Mar 2017. “The conditions for corruption to arise are ubiquitous. Its survival, however, depends upon four conditions:

“The first condition necessary for the emergence of corruption is that there be rents associated with a government’s regulatory powers. Let us consider the rents associated with the sale of rights to serve the wireless market . . . Barring pathologically honest bureaucrats, an entrepreneur will collude with public officials to capture those rents . . . To prevent the private sale of public property, well-developed public institutions are needed to coordinate the responses of the losers and, hopefully, can prevent such deals in the first place.

“The second condition requires that corrupt bureaucracies be somewhat independent within the remaining (if honest) administrative structure of the government. External controls on the bureaucracy—whether imposed by the remainder of the administrative system or by society at large—must be weak. If some agents seem to get away with acts of corruption, the internal dynamics of a corrupt bureaucracy will motivate other bureaucrats to expend more effort on increasing the level of their illicit income.

“The third condition requires the public institutions controlling corruption be weak and ineffective. These institutions include civic groups that exert moral pressures, political parties and the media that could expose the wrongdoing, and the legal system that would have the authority to prosecute and punish the guilty.

“The fourth condition is a lack of whistle-blower protection. It is obvious that strange deals between government and the private sector and private sector to private sector (price fixing, collusion in biddings, bribing technical and purchasing staff, etc.) will only become known if people inside those companies become whistle blowers.”

The fact that foreigners are helping us get over the hump speaks volumes. Trust is lacking if not non-existent among us. And it explains our very low social capital. With a low trust-level, cooperation between and among people is not a given and so reciprocity and interdependence is absent. At the end of the day, Filipinos don’t feel safe and secure. 

The role of education – as well as of the church and family – is to educate us to have a broad understanding of human society and recognize the obligation to create the conditions of trust, cooperation, interdependence and safety. Or simply, be committed to community and the common good.

And given our hierarchical culture, the role of leadership becomes even more crucial. Marcos, Estrada, Macapagal-Arroyo and Duterte, sadly, don’t measure up. We can argue and add more names.

But what about the challenge posed to higher education to guarantee the employability of the graduate? If it isn’t obvious yet, the blog quotes the Bible at times to make theological points. (The foolish man builds upon the sand is likewise the law of nature.) And it’s a force of habit – having been around the block.

Higher education is beyond employability and must be geared to the outcome that the graduate is committed to. A future ultimately beyond any of us. Is the graduate committed to be foolish or wise?

Where does our “crab mentality” come from? The blog also related this to the laws of physics or nature. Where there is mass and weight there is energy or power. That is why there is “the vital few” as against “the trivial many.” In one word, priority. We hate the word and, not surprisingly, have fallen victim to sub-optimization. And it explains our failure in infrastructure development, industrialization and urbanization. Which circles back to our bankruptcy – in social capital.

Being social-capital bankrupt, we are handicapped to be forward-looking and forward-thinking. And it explains why we elect and get the leadership that we deserve – promising overnight miracles.

There is even a debate to let our conglomerates thrive. It is our instincts to preserve the status quo – and, hand in glove, tyranny. Adam and Eve and the Soviets know better . . . Evolution . . . and . . . Development . . .

The writer was one of three outsiders invited in the early 90s by General Electric to meet with their management team when they decided they must transform themselves from a US domestic enterprise to a global one. Is that good or bad for PH? Think Singapore where their social capital is world-class and attracted over a trillion dollars in FDI (foreign direct investment.)

We cannot afford shortsightedness in our approach to higher education. The Philippines deserves a future ultimately beyond any of us.

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

Failed institutions equal failed nation

“Yet at a time when the political opposition is divided and self-serving, few expect the church to fill the breach. Not even its own leaders think it has the moral authority it had in 1986, during the People Power Revolution, when Cardinal Jaime Sin was able to call upon Filipinos to take to the streets to protect the leaders of the army, who had broken with Marcos.

“Catholic Filipinos still worship in droves. But the church is not their first stop for political or moral guidance. It is often at odds with ordinary folk, such as in its dogged opposition in 2012 to a law which guaranteed universal access to contraception and sex education. And when Cardinal Tagle spoke out against vigilante killings, he took pains to say abortion was equally repugnant. As for Mr. Duterte, he says the church is ‘full of shit’, accusing priests of womanizing and leading indulgent lives. ‘He knows’, Father Picardal admits, ‘how to hit us below the belt.’” [“Church v state in the Philippines’ war on drugs: The state is winning,” The Economist, 11th May 2017]

We take pride and wear our faith on our sleeves. But is the church a failing institution too?

“‘I encourage you to persevere in your search for truth,’ the pope said. ‘For we ought never to fear truth, nor become trapped in our own preconceived ideas, but welcome new scientific discoveries with an attitude of humility.’

“Brother Guy Consolmagno, the MIT-educated, Jesuit director of the Vatican Observatory, said Monday that faith and science are not opposed to each other. ‘God is not a scientific explanation,’ Consolmagno told RNS. ‘If you are using God instead of science to explain what happens in the world you are talking about the gods of the Romans and Greeks.” [Pope urges scientists ‘never to fear truth’ despite theological clashes, Josephine McKenna, Religion News Service, USA Today, 12th May 2017]

What about education?

“[We] have fared -- badly -- in the TIMSS (The International Mathematics and Science) tests throughout the years, a graph presented by the WB-AusAid team underscored that position. We were near bottom of the list with practically all our ASEAN neighbors doing from slightly to very much better than us, notably Singapore which was among the top. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia were in the middle of the pack.

“Let us go ‘Fast Forward’ to employment... ‘Forget the often poor English or even the hybridized Tagalog... It’s the ability to compose thoughts beyond the stated facts to open-ended questions; the ability to analyze a complex situation and then put a new set of thoughts together to productively respond to the situation. They don’t think very well, nor deeply. Major additional work is needed to get them to speed.

“[They] point to several skills and capabilities we seem to have lost from the time we were the Asian model for education to our near bottom position today: (1) A knowledge of how life generally works and how most artifacts function given their ages; (2) A keen sense of observation of their environment and a feel for people, again within the context of their age; (3) The ability to ask the right questions; (4) Critical-analytical thinking; (5) The ability to synthesize seemingly divergent though and ideas at their level of experience; and, (6) The ability to communicate their thoughts well in oral and written communications. [Changing content and methods, Mario Antonio G. Lopez, To Take A Stand, BusinessWorld, 16th May 2017]

The church and the school are two critically important institutions in the Philippines. What Juan de la Cruz is today, in more ways than one, can be attributed – outside the family – to these two institutions.

And the test of the pudding is in the eating. For example, “Everyone will welcome a golden age of infrastructure in the Philippines. But we all know what the problems are, even with plans drawn up and objectives set. Instead of thinking about how a particular project can best benefit the masses, the prime consideration in project implementation in this country is personal profit.

“The focus on kickbacks is one of the biggest reasons for the poor quality of our public infrastructure. Because a hefty chunk of project cost goes to lining crooked officials’ pockets, contractors cut corners and sacrifice quality . . . The World Bank sees a link between the quality of the road network and the level of corruption in a country.

“In the days of the Priority Development Assistance Fund, officials of the Department of Public Works and Highways often sighed that lawmakers earmarking projects for funding with their PDAF or pork barrel routinely disregarded procurement laws and qualifications set by the DPWH for contractors.

“In keeping with the SC ruling, lawmakers supposedly can no longer pick projects after the annual budget has been enacted, and there are no more lump sum appropriations. But Sen. Panfilo Lacson insists there is ‘pork’ in the 2017 budget, with Mindanao lawmakers supposedly hogging the bulk of the funds.

“Even if budget officials deny this, a number of lawmakers can still influence the selection of contractors by government agencies. Naturally, being a favored contractor does not come free.

“Corruption is the reason for the disaster that is the Metro Rail Transit 3, and why we have such crummy airports. Corruption is the reason why a single railway project in Luzon has been derailed for over a decade now.

“The desire for fat commissions goes all the way down to local government units (LGUs) and even barangay offices. If President Duterte wants to get his infrastructure program moving, he must confront this problem squarely.

“Recently, Duterte asked the nation for three years to deliver results. This has been met with as much skepticism as his promise to eradicate the drug menace in six months.

“Unless he deals decisively with corruption, the President’s P3.6-trillion TRIP or three-year rolling infrastructure program could trip and fall on its face.” [Trip, Ana Marie Pamintuan, SKETCHES, The Philippine Star, 15th May 2017]

“Why does corruption survive?”, Henry J. Schumacher, BusinessMirror, 20th Mar 2017. We (European Chamber of Commerce and Makati Business Club) formed the Integrity Initiative in 2010. Looking back, we are happy that progress has been made in our mission against corruption, both in government and in the private sector. But have we created the ‘Integrity Nation’ in the six years we have been in operation? I hate to say that we have a long way to go, both in our change advocacy with the national and local governments, and our target to get 10,000 companies to sign the Integrity Pledge and live up to the commitments contained in the pledge.”

How should we then read this article? “Inclusive growth may be on the horizon,” Editorial, The Manila Times, 15th May 2017. 

“Two significant developments are occurring, seemingly in tandem, but in reality totally separate, within which the Philippines is totally of import and relevant. First, the country now holds the alternating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). Second, China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative is about to take off, with Beijing recognizing Asean as a strategic partner in the revival and redevelopment of the ancient Silk Road trading route linking Asian markets to European economies and vice versa.”

Indeed, these are significant developments. Yet it would be wise to recognize how to best leverage our role in these endeavors given they are not entirely under our control. 

Let’s borrow from a previous posting in the blog. “Commitment, challenge and control. They are the characteristics (or the 3 Cs) of a hardy mindset from the work of Robert Brooks of Harvard University, faculty of Harvard Medical School.

“Commitment. To be involved with others and to experience a sense of purpose and meaning; how ordinary people can do extraordinary things . . . Challenge. To appreciate that change rather than stability is the norm; new or difficult situations are perceived as opportunities for learning; the importance of thinking outside the box . . . Control. Focus on situations where we have influence over not where we have little if any control; you have control only over yourself, you must be the one to change. Develop a problem-solving attitude; why are you unable to succeed in your efforts?”

Focus on situations where we have influence over not where we have little if any control; you have control only over yourself, you must be the one to change. Failed institutions equal a failed nation. It starts with each one of us. We cannot point to destiny or extraneous forces to right the Philippine ship. We must take personal responsibility in the pursuit of community and the common good, and lift Juan de la Cruz from ignominy.

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

Status quo: The state is winning . . . and the elite class too

“Church v state in the Philippines’ war on drugs: The state is winning,” The Economist, 11th May 2017.

“The church hierarchy has been slower to speak out, but is finding its voice at last . . . Yet at a time when the political opposition is divided and self-serving, few expect the church to fill the breach. Not even its own leaders think it has the moral authority it had in 1986, during the People Power Revolution, when Cardinal Jaime Sin was able to call upon Filipinos to take to the streets to protect the leaders of the army, who had broken with Marcos.”

Self-serving opposition? What else is new? In the vernacular, it’s called “weather-weather.” In other words, beyond tyranny is us, “status quo is us”!

The writer just visited a market where his Eastern European friends are doing business and at the tail end he led them through a familiar drill: his visit comments and the agreed next steps with the team on the ground. To express its gist, he can’t say it any better than a McKinsey article: “In today’s rapidly evolving landscape, leaders face a continuum of possibilities: build an ecosystem, use someone else’s platform, stick to one’s linear-value-chain knitting, or fashion some combination of the above. Navigating this crucible ultimately comes down to asking hard questions about a company’s sources of differentiation and positional advantage, and placing all options on the table, even if that means disrupting or cannibalizing one’s own business.” [The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress, Ezra Greenberg, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, McKinsey Quarterly, April 2017]

It's called lateral thinking, not linear and incremental thinking. It is called solid, aggressive growth not incremental growth. “Pwede na ‘yan” has no place in a highly competitive, globalized world. But it starts with reality, and it means asking the hard question, where are we – honest-to-goodness? And it calls for benchmarking and, clearly, dynamism.

That is easier for a private enterprise to pursue? Of course, but let’s look outward, to China. “Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order,” Jan Perlez and Yufan Huang, The New York Times, 13th May 2017.

“The massive infrastructure projects, along with hundreds of others across Asia, Africa and Europe, form the backbone of China’s ambitious economic and geopolitical agenda. President Xi Jinping of China is literally and figuratively forging ties, creating new markets for the country’s construction companies and exporting its model of state-led development in a quest to create deep economic connections and strong diplomatic relationships.

“The initiative, called “One Belt, One Road,” looms on a scope and scale with little precedent in modern history, promising more than $1 trillion in infrastructure and spanning more than 60 countries. To celebrate China’s new global influence, Mr. Xi is gathering dozens of state leaders, including President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Beijing on Sunday. It is global commerce on China’s terms.

“China is making calculations that the benefits will outweigh the risks.” 

That China demonstrated how it can be done – from dirt poor begging for Western money and technology to economic power – in our lifetime should give us pause. Singapore is too small, we said to pooh-pooh the miracle they pulled. Now, China is too big? What is the common denominator? Us, status quo is us! Tyranny is us!

Evolution and development. If it isn’t obvious yet, the blog hasn’t tired discussing Darwin and evolution and development – and the reality of extinction for organisms that don’t pay heed.

China will make mistakes – the repertoire, from rookie mistakes . . . and . . . beyond. And it is not new to them that empires aren’t evergreen. We love to talk about Spain, being once our colonizer, and the writer and family has Spain on top of their favorites with Italy – given the warmth of the people and, of course, great food and wine. But where is Spain today compared to Germany, for example?

Put another way, our current portfolio and make up of enterprises – from subsistence farming to oligarchy – cannot be cast in stone. We think they are, and why we can’t attract a trillion dollars in FDI like Singapore.

And consider, Trump has backed away from labeling China a currency manipulator. “China and US reach agreement on beef, poultry, natural gas,” Martin Crutsinger and Jill Colvin, Associated Press, ABC News, 12th May 2017.

“Beijing will open its borders to U.S. beef, while cooked Chinese poultry is closer to landing on American supermarket shelves under a U.S.-China trade agreement.

“Trump administration officials hailed the deal as a significant advance toward boosting U.S. exports and closing America's trade gap with the world's second-largest economy. U.S. trade experts offered a more muted assessment, calling the agreement a modest fulfillment of past assurances made by China.

“Among other things, the deal enables U.S. companies to export liquefied natural gas to China. It will also lower long-standing barriers that have affected matters ranging from agriculture to the operation of American financial firms in China.”

It is not a perfect agreement and, indeed, it is but a modest fulfillment of past assurances made by China. Evolution . . . development . . . 

What is a “no-no” is to stop evolution and development like our elite class want to keep to our tyrannical culture? It was not politically correct but Hillary was on to something when she said the word, “deplorables.” Or listen to the former UK Prime Minister. “Tony Blair calls for people to ‘rise up’ against Brexit.” [BBC, 17th Feb 2017]

Of course, globalization is still evolving and developing. “Essentially, the problem with globalization is a mismatch of the economic intergenerational aspects of economics versus the short-termism that we see in the political decision-making process. Put another way, politicians are basically very rationally courting and catering to their national electorates and will always very rationally want to protect their voters. But as a consequence, they can never have a global interest as the priority, because ultimately [issues] will be decided in terms of their political opportunities based on national agenda.

“Although there are many reasons to pursue globalization [if we believe] it can lift all boats. The problem is, the only way that you can have effective globalization is if you have global institutions who oversee the aspects of the key pillars of globalization—trade, capital flows, and immigration. [Globalization’s ongoing challenge, Rik Kirkland and Dambisa Moyo, McKinsey&Company, May 2017]

But the journey in pursuit of truth cannot end. “Pope Francis told a group of astronomers that scientific questions about the universe and its origins sometimes clash with theology and spiritual beliefs, but he encouraged them to continue their quest for knowledge and ‘never to fear truth.’” [Pope urges scientists ‘never to fear truth’ despite theological clashes, Josephine McKenna, Religion News Service, USA Today, 12th May 2017]

Yet our elite class don’t want to hear about shuttering the status quo? Parochial and insular; hierarchical and paternalistic; political patronage and dynasties; and oligarchic. That when all is said and done, a culture of impunity.

Consider how the Rockefeller family has evolved: “Rockefeller Fund Takes First Green Stake in Pivot From Oil,” Jess Shankleman, Bloomberg, 27th Jul 2016.

“The Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the foundation divesting from the fossil-fuel industry it helped create, took its first direct stake in a renewable energy company in a move meant to bolster the fight against climate change.

“The opportunity is huge and for us it’s just absolutely in the sweet spot of what we’re trying to do with our impact investing,” Stephen Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, said.

“Heintz said the Rockefeller investment is in line with the family’s history of pursuing new ideas. John D. Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil more than a century ago, was also developing cutting edge fuels when he began investing in oil production at the end of the 19th century. He wanted to displace whale oil, Heintz said.

“I’m absolutely convinced that if he were alive today he would understand this dynamic and he would be on the cutting edge of investing in the clean energy economy because he knows that’s where the world is going next.”

Do our elite class know where the world is going next? Could they care less? Status quo – that nurtures tyranny – explains why we're the regional laggard and then some . . .

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]