Sunday, September 3, 2017

Leadership, not analysis-paralysis

Can we paddle our own canoe? There is no free lunch, in case we have forgotten. But is our “kuro-kuro” culture akin to Washington DC punditry? And why one that many assumed had leadership – that he could create jobs being a businessperson – was elected president?

Leadership as the blog has argued was demonstrated by the likes of Lee, Mahathir and Deng. Did it matter whatever was happening elsewhere in the world? Not even ideology, in the case of Deng.

Recall that “The four Asian tigers have consistently maintained high levels of economic growth since the 1960s, fueled by exports and rapid industrialization, which enabled these economies to join the ranks of the world's richest nations.

“Hong Kong and Singapore are among the biggest financial centers worldwide, while South Korea and Taiwan are important hubs of global manufacturing in automobile and electronic components as well as information technology, respectively.” [Investopedia]

We can’t rationalize our underdevelopment – like a truant student. We must instead take the bull by the horn and press forward. We must challenge our mindset – aka “Pinoy abilidad” – and learn from others. The harsh reality we must accept is that we don’t have a track record in development.

For example, while the Neda’s Ambisyon Natin 2040 speaks to “where we want to be,” it does not stress “where we are”! We must first recognize and acknowledge our reality otherwise we fall into the trap of analysis-paralysis. It is not the first time the blog has raised Kurt Lewin’s ‘Force-field analysis.’ “Force-field analysis is an influential development in social science. It provides a framework for looking at the factors (forces) that influence a situation, originally social situations.

“It looks at forces that are either driving movement toward a goal (helping forces) or blocking movement toward a goal (hindering forces). The principle, developed by Kurt Lewin, is a significant contribution to the fields of social sciencepsychologysocial psychologycommunity psychologyorganizational developmentprocess management, and change management … He used theory, mathematics, and common sense to define a force field, and hence to determine the causes of human and group behavior.” [Wikipedia]

A case in point: We can’t keep beating the Constitution black and blue if we don’t address the power of oligarchy to keep us away from any effort to amend it. Likewise, our inability to learn from the Asian Tigers speaks volumes, that of our parochial and insular instincts.

Consider: “The UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) sought to reduce poverty among UN member-states between 1990 and 2015. There were 10 MDGs. The most significant MDGs were the ‘halving’ of poverty and inequality levels by 2015.

“The Philippines failed to achieve both. The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) admitted, in the Fifth MDG Progress Report (2014), that inequality barely changed—from 0.48 Gini coefficient in 1991 to 0.47 in 2012.  In fact, some commentators even assert that inequality has worsened, with some 40 richest Filipino families lording over a nation of over 100 million.

“Now the MDGs have been replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as approved by the UN General Assembly in 2015. This time, the SDGs are more ambitious, with zero hunger and zero poverty targets by 2030. The SDGs are collectively called the ‘2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.’

“However, one of the goals can also be an instrument for the realization of the other SDGs.  This is SDG 9, which commits nations to ‘build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.’

“According to Dr. Manuel Montes of the South Centre in Geneva, SDG 9 re-introduces industrialization as a goal in the UN development agenda (see Montes, “Industrialization, inequality and sustainability”, Policy Brief 44 of South Centre, August 2017).

“This requires pro-active industry policies and a revival of ‘state leadership over key economic actions’ … So, what kind of industrial policy is needed? First, industrial policy must create the economic space and means for new economic activities and livelihoods to grow. For example, it is not enough for a developing country to link its national growth to the export market by participating in the global value chains (GVCs) of the multinationals of developed countries … Developing countries, while participating in the GVCs and the global export market, must find ways to develop national technology, upgrade skills and diversify their economy.

“Second, industrial policy must nurture domestic innovation and productivity across all sectors—industry, agriculture and services. This includes growing new ‘industries’ in these sectors and looking for ways to grow these industries ... Third, industrial policy must address development questions related to the choice of appropriate technology and the efficient scale of production.

“Fourth, industrial policy must enable the rise of a strong domestic enterprise sector that can compete with foreign investors in a level playing field and supply the requirements of a growing domestic market … Fifth, industrial policy must promote policy coherence and coordination among different agencies.

“As amply articulated by Montes in the case of SDG 9, the SDGs can be a weapon for growth and sustainability. The point is how to fulfill the SDGs through a more pro-active and forward-looking national development program.” [SDG 9 commits PHL to ‘inclusive, sustainable industrialization,’ Rene E. Ofreneo, BusinessMirror, 30th Aug 2017]

It is worth repeating: “However, one of the goals can also be an instrument for the realization of the other SDGs. This is SDG 9, which commits nations to ‘build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.’”

In other words, infrastructure development, industrialization and innovation … will pave the way for the realization of the other goals. And they are all within our control except that we have yet to step up to the plate – while constantly engaged in analysis-paralysis?

It takes foresight to confidently map out and pursue infrastructure development. And the Metro Manila traffic we are screaming and kicking about mirrors our shortsightedness. Which also explains our inability to industrialize. Absent both these elements there is no way [Jose!] we could be in the game …  innovation- and competitiveness-wise.

Yet, we aren’t keen to learn from others? For example, the blog has discussed “From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic Development,” a program offered at Oxford University … Learn about the role of government and the key political, social, and economic processes that elevate any society from poverty to prosperity. [In case we miss that, it says “any society” – irrespective of what we seem to believe is our destiny.]

“The Program discusses and examines the following topics: The role of government and the key political, social and economic processes that affect development; Why societies need polities that are both centralized and inclusive, and the process by which these polities develop; The social factors that are necessary for development, including the importance of identities, norms, and narratives;

“The impact of economic processes on development, including discussion about how government policies can either promote or inhibit the exploitation of scale and specialization; The external conditions for development, including trade flows, capital flows, labor flows and international rules for governance.”

This body of knowledge acknowledges that even anarchy is not a barrier to development and that nations can progress from anarchy to a centralized state and on to inclusive states. The premise: “economic development needs alignment between power and identities.”

And that growth is achieved through urbanization and industrialization, i.e., economic development depends upon exploiting scale and specialization.

Sadly, “Pinoy abilidad” is too smart for our own good! At the end of the day, we can’t paddle our own canoe because of our way of life? Parochial and insular; hierarchical and paternalistic; political patronage and dynasties; and oligarchic. And why we have yet to produce a leadership like Lee or Mahathir or Deng.

And for AmBisyon to have a prayer, Neda must engage Juan de la Cruz on this gut-level issue, that is, our culture. A culture is not cast in stone given this world is best characterized by impermanence – as we learned from our faith and why we believe in the afterlife.

As well as there is a body of knowledge that recognizes the superiority of a growth mindset over intelligence that is undermined by a fixed mindset. Which we demonstrate in spades but have yet to acknowledge? If we would pause, hold our breath and scan the contents of local media?

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

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