Beyond strategy …

That is to say, beyond analysis [and strategy] there must be leadership. And why we can not take visionary leadership for granted. We were on the right track when we said we reject "trapos" except that we've had no history and experience re visionary leadership that we always fall into the trap of political patronage. Pinoy kasi.

Of course, it can also be said of Middle America where they adore Trump; while his fellow New Yorkers who knew him pretty well did not even vote for him. Consider: To counter the tariffs he had imposed on trading partners, he set aside tons of money to subsidize farmers. And they are balking because they know it is shortsighted.

The desperation of Americans supposedly elected Trump. Because he promised - which they probably read as "guaranteed" being a Washington outsider, the American version of a non-trapo - to "Make America Great Again." And his prescription is isolation - even when he relies on Russian and Chinese money to prop up his real estate business. Did Bloomberg - who has no self-esteem need to overstate the size of his wealth - call him a fraud? Not exactly? Yet it's too close for comfort. 

And he conveniently forgets that American greed - more precisely, Wall Street and half of the country that are invested in the market - created the financial crisis of 2008. [Disclosure: The writer's daughter and son-in-law are from Wall Street, and the wife and writer are invested in the market.] The wealth disparity that the crisis magnified is where it lies. Think of the 1-% phenomenon that became the face of Wall Street.

Not that long ago the American dream was grounded in an egalitarian ethos. Social mobility was the norm in the land of milk-and-honey. That non-college graduates aspired for and attained the American dream courtesy of Detroit and similar manufacturing enterprises.

And the ethos persisted when the S & L (Savings and Loans associations) crisis of decades ago (1980s-1990s) broke. That bad people may have the guts to break the law, but crime does not pay. Fast-forward to 2008: After the dust of the financial crisis settled, bankers had cornered its spoils while the rest of the world was down on its knees. Bankers were caught with their hands in the cookie jar - ie, packaging purposely solicited bad loans (subprime mortgages) into a financial instrument they called derivatives that were sold and resold to co-conspirators - yet no one ended up in the slammer.

But let's get back to PH. While we had nothing to do with the S & L scandal and the financial crisis of 2008, we, sadly, are the regional laggard. And because of persistent poverty we are married to the war on poverty - which we carry as a badge of honor being proud Christians. In other words, while to the rest of the world Asia equals tiger economies, we do not belong. Consider: They slayed poverty without invoking their faith. "Give to Caesar the things that are Caesar's and to God which are God's."

While we struggle to see beyond the horizon, defined by our "culture" or way of life - which explains why ours is a culture of impunity. Is it a surprise Trump calls Duterte a friend - as in a mutual admiration club?

The big difference is even people within the White House recognize that the American idea is bigger than Trump. While we see political patronage as our saving grace. Because: "We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and the paternalism it brings. And we rely on political patronage and oligarchy given the spoils they bestow. That when all is said and done, we bite the bullet - aka a culture of impunity. "

And so we need a strategy? "PH needs national strategy for the 4th Industrial Revolution," The Manila Times, 5th Sep 2018. "To promote, enhance, instill and draw nationwide awareness and appreciation of the importance of policy research in national development planning and policymaking; cultivate a strong culture of research and use among decision-makers and the general public, and improve the public's research and information literacy on socioeconomic issues; and elicit public support for activities that are meant to advance the standard of policy research in the country. "

That's a mouthful. What if we bring it down to earth? OFW remittances and the BPO industry are the drivers of the PH economy. Do we believe we can leapfrog from where we are today ... to being prepared for the 4th industrial revolution?

Imagine: "There is not enough food supply. Food is 50 of every 100 pesos of expenditure of some 24-million households in the Philippines. Of the 50 pesos for food, rice accounts for 20 pesos. The poor among us spend much more on food, as high as 60 pesos for every 100 of expenditure. "[" San Miguel's food gambit, Tony Lopez, Virtual Reality, Manila Standard, 5th Sep 2018.]

Contrast that to our neighbors, where poverty has long ceased to be in the headlines. Who is equipped to face the next industrial revolution? Indeed, every nation must be prepared but the way we want to do it is via a strategy? Beyond analysis is leadership.

Where do we need leadership? "The economy has been consumer-driven for the past 10 years. Household expenditures account for 73 percent of the annual output of goods and services [or GDP.] If you add government spending, consumer spending accounts for 84 percent of GDP. "[Lopez, op. cit.]

In other words, we direly need leadership to prepare us for the next industrial revolution. Because we are a consumption economy not an industrial economy. And a visionary leader would first define where we want to be - as in a vision - before we start talking strategy? And why the blog keeps plugging Arangkada.

Recall the last time we talked strategy, it was to support the OFWs for being the present-day heroes. And did we have an economist then for a president? In fairness, a string of presidents proudly took credit for the OFW phenomenon which in turn gave the Central Bank the wherewithal to focus on monetary interventions.

In the meantime, we were lulled into complacency - aka our own Dutch disease - that indeed our economy had a robust platform. To add insult to injury, we celebrated our consumption economy for isolating us from the vagaries of the global economy. Sadly, it explains why ours is a shortsighted and dysfunctional system. Wittingly or not, we kicked up a perfect storm, in fact, a vicious circle. Our challenge then is to learn its inverse - a virtuous circle - which can best be described as an ecosystem.

And our neighbors manifest what an ecosystem is all about, eg, consistently exceeding global growth benchmarks. Here's the "Report [from the]  McKinsey Global Institute  - September 2018."

"Eighteen of 71 countries outperformed their peers and global benchmarks: We analyzed the per capita GDP growth of 71 economies over 50 years, starting in 1965. Of these, we identified 18 as outperformers ...

"Seven economies achieved or exceeded real annual per capita GDP growth of 3.5 percent for the entire 50-year period. This threshold is the average growth rate required by low-income and lower-middle-income economies to achieve upper-middle-income status over a 50-year period, as defined by the World Bank. The seven are China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.

"We also found a second group of 11 more recent, less heralded, and more geographically diverse outperformers. They achieved real average annual per capita GDP growth over the 20 years between 1995 and 2016 of at least 5 percent. The 11 are Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Myanmar, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.

"These 18 countries not only showed exceptional average performance but also demonstrated consistency by exceeding the benchmark growth rate in at least three-fourths of the 50 and 20 years, respectively ..."

If that is not an indictment of Juan de la Cruz, how much deeper down the abyss do we want to be? Gising bayan! Look at the list of again: Cambodia, Ethiopia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam ...

Sadly, it will not be easy for us to match the performance of our neighbors if at the end of the day we would fall victim to our parochial and insular instincts - reflective of a fixed or static as opposed to a growth or dynamic mindset - and find ourselves constantly reinventing the wheel. Many nations went to school on the Asian Tigers, but we simply can not look outward ... and forward.

The blog often talks about Apple and Steve Jobs. That Jobs looked to Japan and tapped a Japanese electronics enterprise for the first iPod hard drive, which was the size of a dollar coin. Even a genius like Jobs knew he could pick the brains of others. But we Pinoys do not think we can?

Is it: (a) coming from our instincts; or (b) are we self-esteem challenged [see above re Bloomberg]; or (c) must we do a self-critique, so the world stops leaving us behind?

As some would know, over the last 15 years, the writer has mentored his Eastern European friends on innovation and global competitiveness. And that benchmarking - like setting their sights on a benchmark brand or product - is key in product development.

What human need is the benchmark product addressing? How has the product scaled-up the value chain? And the value chain is simply a reflection of the ever-changing human need. And working with third-party partners from the West - because they have a long history and experience in civilization, for example; or beg for Western money and technology, as Lee and Mahathir advised Deng - his Eastern European friends have developed a handful of state-of-the-art products that are giving the industry's biggest global players a run for their money.

But let's get back to PH and talk food, specifically, rice. The writer met a Greek entrepreneur in New York whose business model revolves around rice; and he keeps challenging himself, constantly figuring out how human need is impacting his business model - forcing him to scale up the value chain. And he shared a presentation deck detailing the different specialty rice he has developed over the years. Which he sells in attractive branded packs typically found on grocery shelves and not to be confused with the generic rice we buy in sacks or by the kilo.

Juan de la Cruz may not be the target consumer of his specialty rice and why he was in New York. But rice is our staple - and ditto for a few other countries. Then consider: Between the wealth of knowledge that resides in IRRI and the real-world experience of a Vietnam or a Thailand, there is enough best practice models we can pick and choose and adopt as benchmarks without reinventing the wheel. Vietnam exports rice ... but not only. And so it has left PH in the dust export-wise.

And why the blog has discussed the imperative of foresight. Foresight is a scarce commodity but if we are to ever get ahead of the curve, we must develop foresight in Juan de la Cruz. And learning from others is a bedrock we can borrow from the quality movement - more precisely, to shamelessly steal best practice models. And why Deng, curious of how China's neighbors became tiger economies, sat down with and picked the brains of Lee and Mahathir.

In the meantime, we're well into the 21st century and we're still figuring out how we can execute Build, Build, Build. And worse is we're at least 50 years behind in infrastructure development - and in over a similar time horizon the generation of this writer would long be gone. Think about it. What more of the dire consequences of the next industrial revolution?

We know we badly need visionary leadership when we keep debating: which comes first the chicken or the egg? "The Employment Bill: Recurring Dilemmas," Emiko Antonette T. Escovilla, BusinessWorld, 4th Sep 2018. "According to the Philippine Ecozones Association, the bill may help boost the domestic market, but at the expense of export-oriented firms which enjoy existing tax incentives ... Ultimately, therefore, the approval of the measure boils down to an age-old question in economics: what cost is this government willing to incur, and for what, or whose benefit? "

In other words, TRAIN 2, now labeled the TRABAHO Bill, seems to be floundering. And it is supposedly meant to fund Build, Build, Build.

One more time with feeling: We will not get ahead of the curve ... ever ... until we learn what foresight is ... and toss political patronage ... and embrace visionary leadership. But it will be a constant struggle given our instincts that reflect a static as opposed to a growth or dynamic mindset - and why the world is leaving us behind. 

Gising bayan!

"Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it. "[We are ruled by Rizal's 'tyrants of tomorrow,' Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

" Now I know why Paul dared to speak of 'the curse of the law' (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant. "[Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr's Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

"As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media - their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors - have an obligation to this country. . . "[Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

"National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country's natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency's value, as classical economics insists. . . A nation's competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade. "[The Competitive Advantage of Nations,  Michael E. Porter , Harvard Business Review, March-April 1990]

"Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow. "[William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

"Development [is informed by a people's] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership. . . "[Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]