“Gising bayan”

"Why was the vision of revived manufacturing nonsense? Talking about what Donald Trump does not know is, of course, a vast task, since his ignorance is both broad and deep ... Running America is not like running a family business. It has to be done by setting broad policies and sticking to them ... So Trump's promise to restore US manufacturing was doomed to fail.

"You might wonder where his confidence came from ... The answer, probably, is the Dunning-Kruger effect: inept people are often confident in their abilities, because they're too inept to know how badly they're doing." ["When MAGA fantasy meets rust belt reality, "Paul Krugman, The New York Times, 29th Nov 2018]

Krugman is much harsher than the writer's introduction of the concept of "perceptive judgment." That inexperience - in development - explains why a people like us Pinoys seem unable to figure out the way forward for Juan de la Cruz.

And add to that our inability to look in the mirror and ask the question: where is our culture of impunity coming from?

And that (a) culture and (b) lack of experience in development have kept us between a rock and a hard place.

How long have we been talking about our restrictive economy and simply do not have the wherewithal to deal with it? And it boils down to our being foresight-challenged. If a person is totally clueless about what he wants to be when he grows up, everything will be downhill from there.

There is no sense of the imperative of the building blocks of nirvana because he has not defined nirvana in the first place. In short, it explains beyond our coyness about FDI why we do not have the intense desire to pursue infrastructure development and industrialization.

"Foreign chambers warn some bills are 'stagnating,'" Janina C. Lim, BusinessWorld, 28th Nov 2018. "FOREIGN business groups said various items of legislation to remove foreign investment limits remain on their wish list before the conclusion of the 17th Congress.

"At a briefing after the Arangkada forum Tuesday in Makati City, the Joint Foreign Chambers of the Philippines said it continues to bat for rule changes covering foreign ownership limits to better align the legislature's output with the government's intended program."

Enter: the path of least resistance. Why cross Juan de la Cruz if he is parochial and insular and has a bias against foreigners? It is human nature too. And the path of least resistance is a convenient default posture. Remember Juan Tamad?

The bottom line: we have allowed ourselves to be boxed in a corner.

So we celebrated the OFW phenomenon and even felt proud that when the global economy is in recession, we will be shielded. Enter: parochialism and insularity.

Who likes being an island unto themselves? Tyrants and autocrats do. And we wonder why we have not matured beyond leader-dependency like Rizal warned?

In other words, Lone Ranger - or Superman or Batman - is a myth yet we still live in his shadow? And why after Marcos we embraced Duterte. We had Salas, Paterno and today Rio, too?

"Running America ... has to be done by setting broad policies and sticking to them," says Krugman. And Fitch interprets that for us: "We have (a) lower per capita income and (b) weaker governance and (c) business environment indicators ... compared to our peers."

Putting Krugman and Fitch's lingo together means we must have a north star that is our guiding light ... to be able to stay the course. In other words, we must like the Asian Tigers to seek rapid economic development by (a) ratcheting up per capita income, (b) committing to good governance and (c) turning away from patronage and oligarchy.

Indeed that is a mouthful and presupposes overcoming myopia and transactional politics - and economics, as in our fixation on the GDP growth rate. Despite the reality that it will take a generation even at 7% growth for us to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 

And forgetting that the rest of the world will not stand still. But which we take for granted given our inward-looking instinct ... and why countries like Cambodia, Ethiopia, Laos and Myanmar, among others, have outperformed us the past 20 years. In other words, we need more than monetary and fiscal policies.

But what else? Recall Narcissus. We can not in our heart of hearts commit to benchmark and pick and choose what other nations - that one after the other like clockwork left us in the dust - can teach us. Recall how we brag about Thailand simply copying our economic development plans? How come they were able to run rings around us? Are we too smart for our own good that we can not take advice solicited or otherwise like Thailand? 

And here's a great example of why we're neither here nor there: "Even those who accept that the devil is in the details understand that it is still necessary to set goals. While 'forest' visionaries tend to have bad accounting habits (it's not a cost, but an investment) they are the ones who change the game, but not always how they intended to. The detailed 'trees' people have to get involved. Sometimes, both types just get lost in the woods. "[Forest and trees, Tony Samson, BusinessWorld, 2nd Dec 2018]

And what's the antidote? Recall the fixed mindset versus the growth mindset the blog discussed a few times. And it applies to both the public and private sectors especially the ones that demonstrate keenness in innovation and global competitiveness like a Singapore and a Microsoft. 

On the other hand, "perceptive judgment" explains why ideologues and relativists can not navigate the continuum across the two extremes, ie, it boils down to experience. And why we Pinoys can not figure out the way forward in development as well as the imperatives of innovation and global competitiveness. 

And so we are left with projecting that our growth rates especially over the last 6 years will make us a middle-income nation. Did we not make a similar call before coming on the heels of the OFW phenomenon and the BPO industry as well as the sweet spot that we attribute to our population size that is young to boot? 

That is why the blog has raised the distinctions amongst assets, liabilities and net worth. And given how pervasive poverty has remained we then turned to what we call a strong leader. That is the answer, that we will no longer be a third-world, underdeveloped, poverty-gripped nation with the right leadership ... or what we accept as leadership. Will we ever learn that freedom is not free? Paternalism is a virtue only to those who can not figure out that freedom carries inherent responsibility.

In the meantime our friendly competitor-countries can only be celebrating with this news report: "NTC confirms Mislatel as a new third telco player, Ryan Macasero,"  philstar.com , 19th Nov 2018. 

Because they know we are indeed no competition, that we can not get our act together. And as important, it: (a) explains that foresight is not in our DNA and (b) reveals our inexperience in development and global competition.

Consider: "But Mislatel's winning bid has not been without controversy ... Critics have claimed Uy's friendship with Duterte had influenced the bidding. Uy had also donated at least P35 million to his campaign. "[Macasero, op. cit.]

The moral of the story? As important is to cease our submission and love for tyranny so that we stop our adoration for a Marcos or a Duterte. If there is false news, there is a fake leadership.

If we come down to earth, we can not aggressively drive GDP per capita if (a) we keep to OFW remittances and the BPO industry and (b) political patronage and oligarchy and (c) SMEs that rely more on government than the animal spirits.

And media can influence shifting paradigms by not being lulled into transactional politics and economics.

It is laughable to talk about a manufacturing uptick while at the same time celebrating patronage and oligarchy and commiserating with SMEs for the lack of government assistance. They reflect the absence of a north star or broad policies ... and sticking to them that Krugman speaks to. Pinoy kasi! That will do!

And why the blog always ends with the quotes re: (a) We are ruled by Rizal's "tyrants of tomorrow"; (b) Law and discernment; (c) The obligation of media; (d) National prosperity and competitiveness; (e) The arrogance of success. 

Indeed, nation building is not a cakewalk. Yet, history has loads to teach us. And "it's possible" that comes from our instincts is doing Juan de la Cruz a disservice.

Consider:  "President Franklin D. Roosevelt ... would lead his nation through two of the greatest crises in its history-the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II ... From March 1933 to June 1944, Roosevelt addressed the American people in some 30 speeches broadcast via radio, speaking on a variety of topics from banking to unemployment to fighting fascism in Europe. Millions of people found comfort and renewed confidence in these speeches, which became known as the 'fireside chats.' "[ Https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/fireside-chats ]

We are not America but how Roosevelt led his nation through two of the greatest crises in its history should teach anyone keen on leadership what leadership is. And what nation building is.

What are we facing in PH? For decades, we know: "We have (a) lower per capita income and (b) weaker governance and (c) business environment indicators ... compared to our peers."

In other words, we must like the Asian Tigers to seek rapid economic development by (a) ratcheting up per capita income, (b) committing to good governance and (c) turning away from patronage and oligarchy.

Gising bayan!

"Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it. "[We are ruled by Rizal's 'tyrants of tomorrow,' Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

" Now I know why Paul dared to speak of 'the curse of the law' (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant. "[Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr's Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

"As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media - their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors - have an obligation to this country. . . "[Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

"National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country's natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency's value, as classical economics insists. . . A nation's competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade. "[The Competitive Advantage of Nations,  Michael E. Porter , Harvard Business Review, March-April 1990]

"Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow. "[William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

"Development [is informed by a people's] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership. . . "[Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]