Alternative reality

In this parallel universe, we can create whatever is pleasing until "reality" presents itself as a healthy dose. Today we are celebrating a "booming economy" but how different is that to 2015 when we were singing hosanna to "manufacturing resurgence"?

In fairness, every administration concerned took credit for the consistency in GDP growth when the reality is (a) OFW remittances and (b) the BPO industry are driving PH economy, including our ability to keep the exchange rate stable and our forex reserves healthy.

So, credit rating agencies have been generous to us, but it dates to previous administrations given the OFW phenomenon. Still, we can invoke poetic justice, aka denial.

These two income streams accounted for a combined receipt of $57-B in 2018. If we add that to our accumulated FDI of $79-B, it gives us an investment source of $136-B, which is higher than Vietnam's accumulated FDI of $130-B.

It explains why we have created more Forbes billionaires and why the elite class can't or aren't complaining. The plight of Juan de la Cruz is something else or for politicians to exploit no different Trump is focused on promises to his base.

Here's the reality: Vietnam's poverty rate is down to 8% while ours is at 21.6%. The multiplier effect of Vietnam's exports dampens that of the two drivers of our economy. Because beyond FDI theirs' came with technology, scale and the emergence of sub-industries, and high-quality jobs.

For example, Samsung accounts for a quarter of Vietnam's exports – which approximate total PH exports – behind their investments of $17-B, which explains why the DTI is working on 42 industry road maps.

Sadly, they're still on the drawing board. Worse is the road maps won't get off the ground if the crab mentality gets the better of us and don't recognize the imperative of discipline in execution and prioritize the one or two industries that will give us the biggest bang for the buck sooner than later.

Our supposed manufacturing resurgence and booming economy indeed saw an uptick in electronic automotive parts that we export yet total manufacturing and exports still aren’t making a dent against Vietnam’s soaring revenues.

So, we are pointing to Build, Build, Build, including the $14-B airport proposal from San Miguel. As the blog has discussed, there are enablers and drivers – of development and business and economic activities.

What we're celebrating are the "enablers" that won't match Vietnam's "drivers," which are getting an added bonanza from the trade war between the US and China because manufacturer-exporters are moving from China to Vietnam.

Moreover, the US is expected to be the largest investor in Vietnam in the next couple of years. They are the same people that lied to justify the Vietnam war and wanted to bomb them back to the Stone Age. Is Vietnam today at the mercy of the Americans? What about China or Singapore or Malaysia?

Put another way, the US, Germany, and Japan have all committed atrocities yet are today members of the community of nations, which explains the partnership between Vietnam and the US, as in interdependence. Moreover, the Americans keep military bases in Germany and Japan, as in hegemony. Unsurprisingly, Juan de la Cruz trusts the Americans more than the Chinese.

Still, there is this open wound, such that we equate a US military base to subservience. How come we let them be in Mindanao? 

Meanwhile, the alternative reality we created has been around for the longest time and why the blog never tires of raising the "reality" of our instincts: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism, rely on political patronage and oligarchy, that at the end of the day, ours is a culture of impunity.

Moreover, they rob us of dynamism, to look forward, and foresee.

Our instincts explain every barrier we erected and why we are the regional laggard, and it starts with our pitiful FDI — or some will say it starts from the "basic water" to our conflicted world view. Between a culture of impunity and regional laggard, what redeeming value then must we seek and hold?

The world will not wait until Juan de la Cruz sorts out his instincts and figures out if he is coming or going. 

In the meantime, Vietnam is not only overtaking us but poised to surpass Singapore at the rate they are going.

“We have gone through 120 years of ‘capitalism” and ‘democracy’ since our first try for freedom and self-governance in 1896. But where are we now? Are we truly better as country and as a people?

“Have we finally bucked the ills that plagued our society in 1896 onwards? Have we gone beyond our political and economic troubles and paved the way for the creation of a nation that is united and strong? Have we given our people better lives?” [Another chance at greatness, Marvin A. Tort, Static, Business World, 6th Apr 2016]

What about our instincts? As the blog has repeatedly pointed out, Lee and Mahathir counseled Deng to beg for Western money and technology. We may have all forgotten, but Mahathir also said the same thing to us Pinoys. 

Granted, we acknowledge that we must indeed attract FDI; the rest of our instincts won't give us the conviction to match that of our neighbors'.

Foreign investors aren’t blind. We must demonstrate conviction and transform our consumption economy to an industrial economy. News item: “BSP focused on improving FDI environment.”

Granted the BSP’s role is to be an enabler as in classical economics, what about the leadership? What is its focus? 

“So it’s baffling that President Duterte, despite having approved the planned auction of Imelda’s jewelry to allow the government to recover the people’s money, was also heard complaining earlier this week that, in the fight against unending corruption in government, his hands are supposedly tied by the present Constitution, and so ‘find another Marcos.’

“Marcos did not eradicate corruption, contrary to what Duterte implied. Marcos centralized it: he decided who can steal with impunity among his officials and cronies, but he made sure he got the lion’s share.’

“To this day, the government is still recovering the loot, and Imelda’s gems are but a small part of what was robbed from the people. But it no longer surprises that Mr. Duterte can utter such a falsehood; it’s clear the President is invested in the agenda to restore, deify—and copy where he can—the ruinous Marcos brand of governance, even if that means repudiating facts, history, the truth.

“Already convicted, she remains free and unpunished and—a star, indeed—untouchable as ever.” [Another Imelda, another Marcos, EDITORIAL, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 22nd Jun 2019]

Has DU30 given up on fighting corruption? What about the war on drugs? The friendship with China?

In fairness, the administration has its 10-point economic agenda. On the other hand, recall how our neighbors shocked the rest of the world by becoming economic miracles and earned the honor of Asian Tigers. "Beg for Western money and technology" was their common mantra.

Not surprisingly, today, they dominate the global ranking in competitiveness. Singapore and Hong Kong are no. 1 and no. 2, with the US at no. 3.

These neighbors demonstrated foresight and dynamism, beyond classical economics. It explains why they beat the West in their own game. If PH is to be the next economic tiger, we better beat the West in their own game. 

With due respect to the BSP, to improve the FDI environment goes beyond our current view of the world. We must convince the rest of the world that PH can support an industrial economy, including the pursuit of innovation and global competitiveness.

For example, why are manufacturer-exporters that are leaving China moving to Vietnam? It is the kind of question we never asked ourselves since the advent of the Asian economic miracles. We’ve stuck with our parochial and insular bias given our instincts. We cannot measure the rest of the world with the yardstick of our alternative reality.

Let’s get back to our leadership. If it is giving up on corruption, what about the war on drugs? “Int' l drug crime boss had heyday in Philippines, says book," Tony S. Bergonia, INQUIRER.net, 20th Jun 2019.

“At the book’s epilogue, its author, Ratliff, said he wondered how Le Roux would have operated under the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who had launched a brutal campaign against drugs and criminality that had already claimed the lives of thousands of people.

‘One source connected to the Manila underworld told me he’d talked to people at the highest levels of the (drug) cartels now active in the country, who said that the killing campaign was targeted only at addicts and low-level dealers, leaving the higher-ups, who knew how to pay for protection, untouched,’ Ratliff wrote.

“The drug business [is booming.] They’re sending in more drugs. They’re stockpiling [them.]”

What about the friendship with China? “Duterte: I am not afraid of China,” Alexis Romero, The Philippine Star, 22nd Jun 2019.

“[It’s] not China that he’s afraid of but the prospect of the Asian power wiping out Philippine forces in the event of armed conflict.

“That is an open confrontation, there would be a gun battle. I’m not afraid of China. I am afraid that we might turn out to be helpless and just get wiped out. America has the right to interfere if it becomes a bloody confrontation.”

Are we rooting for China against the US, or are we changing our tune? These two nations today are competing on the world stage. Either way, we carry the baggage from the past. Because Juan de la Cruz is about looking backward not forward and why dynamism isn't natural to us despite living in this universe that is one and where extinction is the reality.

What do our instincts say according to Rizal? We submit to tyranny because we love it. One is an autocracy and the other a democracy. 

The Hong Kong people today are witness to the struggle, and they are demonstrating where they stand. The writer is in Sofia as he writes. He has lived and worked with people that survived a similar struggle.

There is no such thing as absolute yet countries that once saw the West as the enemy are today swearing against autocracy. They give the writer the motivation – through 16 years and counting – to share with them how democracy and the free market works for those that adhere to personal responsibility.

If through the blog, the writer is challenging Juan de la Cruz, these people must be masochists. Because they love to hear and accept the challenge – to beat their Western competition in their own game – despite the pain they go through. No pain, no gain.

How should we establish ourselves in the community of nations? Consider these pillars: (a) Democracy (b) Hegemony (c) Interdependence. Democracy means free, open, and competitive. Hegemony recognizes the leadership of powerful nations. Interdependence is being friends to others consistent with these pillars.

It’s worth repeating: “Have we finally bucked the ills that plagued our society in 1896 onwards? Have we gone beyond our political and economic troubles and paved the way for the creation of a nation that is united and strong? Have we given our people better lives?”

Why do we live in our "alternative reality"? Because it’s “pwede na ‘yan”? We have a generational challenge. Do we need to seriously revisit our instincts that brought us this culture of impunity instead of dynamism and foresight?

If in the continuum across the extremes of dualism and relativism, our perceptive judgment puts us closer to "dualism," our neighbors are farther away and moving towards relativism.

While in the one across autocracy and democracy, we tilt to "autocracy" no different from the base of Trump that sees him as a demigod, as we do DU30.

The bottom line: We get the leadership that we deserve. It is why our nation is left behind.

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? And that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists . . . A nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]