Monday, October 21, 2019

Of Plans and road maps

“The World Bank-funded Metro Manila Transport, Land Use, and Development Planning Project (or the MMetroplan) was published in 1976.

“Metro Manila: What went wrong? [ARCHITECT FELINO A. PALAFOX, JR., The Manila Times, 10th Oct 2019.] MANILA has the third-lowest quality of life among 56 cities. Is this even surprising? Deutsche Bank (DB) recently released its eighth annual survey of living standards and global prices in more than 50 cities around the world. Manila’s score was deficient — only surpassing Beijing, China, and Lagos, Nigeria.

“There are 4.5 million homeless Filipinos. [21.6 percent] of Filipinos live below the national poverty line. Aside from subsequent disease outbreaks, our country has the third-highest number of deaths because of air pollution.

“The Japan International Cooperation Agency reported that we have been losing P3.5 billion per day because of the crippling traffic in Metro Manila. In the same DB survey, the Philippines ranked eighth from the lowest in public transport. Even if three of our major railways are working, people still find it extremely hard to commute. How much more if all three bogged down, as happened last week? As expected, thousands were affected by the malfunctions.”

In other words, we can’t execute even high-profile projects. Here’s a couple more plans that give us hope:

“THE Philippine Council of Management (Philcoman), one of the oldest federations of professionals dedicated to the development of management and improvement of management practices in all aspects of Philippine society, has endorsed the country’s P130-trillion road map target of the construction industry.” [Cecilio Arillo, DATABASE, BusinessMirror, 10th Oct 2019.]

“Sec. Puyat convinced the World Bank and the ADB to provide $400-million assistance in two separate loan packages to enhance tourism infrastructure.      

“Under the program, Bohol, Siargao, Siquijor, Davao City, and Samal Island were identified as the key targeted destinations.” [Doing our homework first, Boo Chanco, DEMAND AND SUPPLY, The Philippine Star, 7th Oct 2019]

If we can’t turn plans into reality, what about research? “Sen. Cynthia Villar minced no words castigating the Department of Agriculture (DA) last week during a hearing on the proposed budget of the department. The chair of the Senate committee on agriculture, food, and agrarian reform was particularly bothered by what she felt was the excessive attention being paid by the DA to research, specifically the P150 million — or 12.5 percent — of its P1.2-billion proposed budget for the National Corn Program.” [What research can do, EDITORIAL, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 13th Oct 2019]

We do make plans and research. What about creativity?

“HARVARD University has many prominent professors specializing in innovation and creativity. In my search for experts in these areas, Dr. Shelley Carson of the psychology department emerged as a renowned lecturer and practitioner who authored the book, Your Creative Brain — Seven Steps to Maximize Imagination, Productivity, and Innovation in Your Life.” [Enhancing creativity, ROSARIO CALDERON, The Manila Times, 10th Oct 2019]

Where must we look for creativity?

“[People] are often too hidebound by social convention to state their views. How many companies have plowed ahead with expensive projects that were favored by the chief executive, even when other managers have had doubts?

“People from different backgrounds approach problems from different angles—that much should be blindingly obvious.

“In the modern world, with all its complexity, co-operation is essential if breakthroughs will occur. In science and engineering, teams rather than individuals write 90% of papers. Analysis of American patent filings since 1975 showed teams dominate in every one of the 36 defined categories.

“The ability to speak up within an organization, without fear of sanction, is known as ‘psychological safety.’

“[A] study of teams at Google found that self-reported psychological safety was by far the most crucial factor behind successful teamwork at the technology giant.

“Another advantage of diversity is that outsiders can spot profitable opportunities that insiders may miss. Immigrants account for 13% of the American population, but 27.5% of those who start a new business. By their nature, migrants have more get-up-and-go than the average person—otherwise, they wouldn’t move. Some may start businesses because existing ones won’t hire foreigners.” [In praise of dissenters: It pays companies to encourage a variety of opinions, The Economist, 10th Oct 2019]

Here’s how three world-renowned individuals respond to dissent: 

Jeff Bezos: “People who are right a lot, listen a lot, change their mind a lot.”

Ray Dalio (founder of world’s largest hedge fund): “The biggest tragedy is when people think the right decisions are in their heads; they mistake their opinions as right and are attached to them.”

Steve Jobs (as revealed by Tim Cook): “He would flip on something so fast; you forget that he has taken a 180-degree polar-opposite position.”

Let’s get back to the Philippines: “Forgetting its Christian template of forgiveness, the Philippine institutional Church, the Archdiocese of Manila, reacted swiftly and forcefully by filing a suit invoking an article of law against disturbing or insulting religious feeling.

“Then began Carlos Celdran’s Calvary, arrested, tried, and convicted. He sued for pardon and apologized. This time he needed to be humble and ask for forgiveness. He knew it and did it. The Archdiocese claimed it had forgiven, but the suit went on to the Supreme Court, which affirmed his jail sentence.

“It was the ultimate hypocrisy that upon his death, the Archdiocese felt compelled to issue a statement that it had nothing to do with the case filed in court. It claimed it was not them but Catholic lawyers who pursued the case because of the infraction against religious sensibilities.” [Carlos Celdran, MA. ISABEL ONGPIN, The Manila Times, 11th Oct 2019]

Recall the recurring themes of the blog: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism, rely on political patronage and oligarchy, that at the end of the day, ours is a culture of impunity.

In a recent posting, because of their inward-looking bias, the blog challenged the conclusion that tax reforms are the answer to our being the regional laggard, including fund infrastructure development. Indeed, the PH corporate tax rate is higher compared to Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. 

While we want to bring the tax rate down from 30% to 20% to be competitive and eliminate ineffective incentives, other dimensions make our tax revenues pale in comparison.

For example, given Vietnam’s exports are over four times PH’s, they will take in more tax revenues, i.e., 24.8%. Except for Vietnam and Indonesia – which is at 13% but the poverty rate is less than half ours – PH taxes/other revenues as a percentage of GDP are within the 15%-16% range, comparable to Malaysia and Thailand’s.

Lower rates will benefit our largest enterprises but will not generate FDI to the level of Vietnam, for example. “Vietnam’s enthusiasm for free-trade deals has made it especially alluring to foreign investors,” not taxes per se. 

In other words, a larger pie, aka GDP driven by investment especially FDI that comes with technology and an industrial economy will raise the tax base as well as generate higher quality employment even better than OFW remittances, the BPO industry, and tourism – i.e., they are the low-hanging fruit.

It is not rocket science, but we must first (a) toss our blinders and (b) benchmark rigorously. Denial can only ensure the continuity of our mediocre performance. See the above recurring themes of the blog.

Moreover, “We should be careful not to think that every crisis demands the unilateral use of emergency powers.

“Much of this nihilism, writes the literary critic Michiko Kakutani, mirrors a ‘growing loss of faith in institutions and a loss of respect for both the rule of law and everyday norms and traditions; a symptom of our loss of civility, our growing inability to have respectful debates with people who have opinions different from our own; and our growing unwillingness to give others the benefit of the doubt, room for an honest mistake, the courtesy of a hearing.’ We can’t hope to reverse this civic decline by hiring a despot to discipline us.” [The crisis in our streets, Randy David, PUBLIC LIVES, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 13th Oct 2019]

Are we a disaster that has already happened as in a failed state?

Gising bayan!

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country's natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development [is informed by a people’s] worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

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