Reorder follows disorder

“The new organization’s second secretary-general, Dag Hammarskjold, observed, the UN ‘came about not to take mankind to heaven but to save humanity from hell.’ For 75 years, there have been no world wars (though too many smaller ones). Unlike its precursor, the League of Nations, the UN has proved resilient. Its membership has grown from 51 countries to 193, through decolonization and the break-up of the Soviet empire. It sits amid a rules-based world order, and its activities and those of its specialized agencies span almost every aspect of life.

“Yet no international order lasts forever. Over time the balance of power shifts, systems fail to adapt, and the rot sets in. The peace after the Congress of Vienna in 1815 eroded slowly; that after the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 collapsed fast. A change from one dominant power to another has usually meant war (the shift from Britain to America over a century ago being a rare exception).

“The UN wants to use its 75th anniversary for a grand consultation on the future of multilateralism. Covid-19 has hijacked the global agenda. But it also creates an opportunity. Rather than destroying the system, the upheaval could spur countries into strengthening it. That will require planning for the future while tackling the crisis of the present. Today’s leaders need to emulate what their predecessors achieved so magnificently in 1945.” [The new world disorder, The Economist, 18th Jun 2020]

The writer can’t help but break into a smile, reading the referenced issue of The Economist. Coincidentally, after its cover story titled “Goodbye Globalization,” 16th May 2020, the newspaper surveyed its subscribers. And the writer dutifully responded. Here’s to paraphrase his overall comments: I challenge The Economist to address this universe’s characteristics; for example, it is a 24/7, dynamic phenomenon.

Those familiar with the blog won’t find that new. It is a recurrent theme of the postings.

But let’s get to the Philippines. As the blog has emphasized, it will take lots of doing – i.e., experience – before questioning the way we think. That is consistent with the science of metacognition.

But let’s also challenge the “Padre Damaso” in Juan de la Cruz – via a bit of Franciscan theology. Recall they represent the minority view and why today the Catholic Church has “two popes.” The Franciscans have been melding faith with science via a group of theologian-scientists, and Pope Francis belongs to the school – supporting the efforts. [Einstein had a cleric-physicist friend in the Manhattan project, William Pollard, referenced among the closing quotes of every posting in this blog.]

“The Bible reveals the development of human consciousness and human readiness for a Divine Love Affair. The differences between earlier and later Scriptures clearly show an evolution of human capacity, comprehension, and depth of experience. Jesus represents the mature image of what God is doing in history.

“In Israel’s growth as a people, we see the pattern that happens to every individual and to every community that sets out on the journey of faith. Israel is the ‘womb of the Incarnation,’ for it is in their history that the whole drama endured. Jesus fully grows up inside that womb. And we must grow up too.

“Little by little, human consciousness is prepared to see how God loves and liberates us. But we will face plenty of resistance, revealed in the constant hostility to Jesus even and most especially from religious people, ending in the very ‘killing of God.’

“There are many models of human and spiritual development. We could describe three stages as Simple Consciousness, Complex Consciousness (both ‘fight and flight’), and Non-Dual Consciousness (‘the unitive way' or 'third way'). I have been calling the developmental stages Order > Disorder > Reorder. In short, I see this pattern in the Bible and human lives:

“Order: We begin with almost entirely tribal thinking, mirroring the individual journey, which starts with an egocentric need for ‘order’ and ‘self.’ Only gradually do we move toward inclusive love.

“Disorder: We slowly recognize the invitation to a ‘face to face’ love affair through the biblical dialogue of election, failure, sin, and grace, which matures the soul. That is where we need wisdom teachers to guide us through our ‘disorder.’

“Reorder: Among a symbolic few, there is a breakthrough to unitive consciousness (for example, figures like Abraham and Sarah, Moses, David, the Psalmists, many of the prophets, Job, Mary, Mary Magdalene, Jesus, and Paul). That is also what some call enlightenment or salvation.

“Conservatives usually get trapped in the first stage while progressives are in the second, and only a minority of either group seems to get to the third. The last step is considered dangerous to people in the first stage and rather unknown and invisible to people in the second stage.

“If you can’t trust in both love and mystery and also some ability to hold anxiety and paradox, all of which allow the ‘divine’ entry into the soul, you will not proceed very far on the spiritual journey. You will often run back to stage one when the going gets rough in phase two. The great weakness of much Western spirituality is that there is little understanding of the necessity of darkness and ‘not knowing’ (which is the transformative alchemy of faith). That is what keeps so much religion at stage one.

“We only need enough light to be able to trust the darkness. That is a wonderful way to grow in human love too. Darkness, mistakes, and trials are the supreme teachers. Success teaches you nothing; it just feels good.” [Order, Disorder, Reorder, Fr. Richard Rohr, OFM, Daily Meditations, 23rd Feb 2016]

In other words, even in the real world, decision-making can’t be reduced to a quantitative exercise. Recall how the blog discusses the difference between “analysis” and “analytics.” The latter demands forward-thinking, including visualizing scenarios, fleshed out with assumptions and data.

The world we live in is living color, not black and white. Recall how the writer guided the then Ph.D. candidate: I never used the Markov algorithm. Today, this person is the Global Marketing Director of a billion-dollar-plus brand.

That is why the blog wants to keep Padre Damaso in our consciousness. He can’t be a supreme teacher. Permanence is not of this world. That is why we Filipinos must step up to the plate and toss our caste system.

Success feels right, especially given the trappings that come with it; rank has its privileges. Sadly, the dark side is reprehensible – our proud nation is the regional laggard.

And we in the elite class can’t help but play our paternalism card. We want to fix poverty, the drug menace, plus terrorism – to boot. And so, we keep building a shack – as in “pwede na ‘yan” – instead of designing and engineering a stately home for Juan de la Cruz.

It is not merely to rob Peter to pay Paul, even worse, to perpetuate the crab mentality.

We must discard the status quo from our consciousness. Sadly, we can’t see beyond the obvious and logical because of our lack of experience in development. We aren’t predisposed to forward-think.

Why would we in the elite class want to change when we are the ones calling the shots?

“Foreign investors discouraged by lack of progress on tax reform laws,” Beatrice M. Laforga, BusinessWorld, 22nd Jun 2020. “THE Philippines needs to address the lack of clarity on investment policy, which discourages foreign direct investment (FDI), an economist from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research said.”

Are we still wondering why we’re the regional laggard? How often do we hear “lack of progress” and “lack of clarity” in reform laws and investment policy from foreign investors?

Our conversations speak volumes about what our priorities are and what we value. Think De Lima and Ressa on the one hand, and the anti-terrorism bill on the other. And there is the failed war on drugs and war on poverty. Not to forget, we are now the biggest rice importer when the IRRI was once our pride and joy. Translation: We are such losers we can easily throw away a competitive advantage.

And a short distance from the Philippines is Vietnam. And they are poised to overtake Singapore. If we are as confused as Trump and his cohort on how to deal with COVID-19, Vietnam, yes, it is them again, has done an excellent job in overcoming the pandemic.

The bottom line: Can we ever demonstrate progress? What about clarity?

The blog keeps recalling that by the end of the year, it will be in its twelfth year. And over that period, when the writer kept abreast with how we as an economy and nation has progressed, he is the least surprised that foreign investors are confused if we’re coming or going.

Consider these simple questions: Where are we? Where do we want to be? How do we get there?

Will we ever see the day when Juan de la Cruz will merely say, “We want to traverse the road from poverty to prosperity”? How did Vietnam bag these enterprises – Samsung Vietnam and AirPods Vietnam? That they rapidly broke the back of poverty?

We’re supposed to be a lot smarter than the Vietnamese, or at least we thought so?

There is no clarity in our thinking as foreign investors complain. Unsurprisingly, they see no progress in reform and policy efforts.

Consider our instincts: We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism that we rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.

Why can’t we just say that we want to traverse the road from poverty to prosperity? Because of our caste system, we in the elite class wish to preserve the status quo. We want to maintain rank and privilege.

We instead highlight that we’re over one hundred million strong – skewed to young people, population-wise. And that is a sweet spot in the economy.  Sadly, that is wishful thinking and adds insult to injury.

Why? We’re stuck as a service-consumption economy. The insult is exploiting Juan de la Cruz – the overseas Filipino worker – and is going almost fifty years because we failed to move up to an industrial-investment economy. 

Let’s pause right there and revisit a handful of essential numbers.

And we can start with poverty, the Philippines versus Vietnam. Our poverty rate is 16.6% against Vietnam’s 5.8%.

Then consider the high side of OFW remittances plus the BPO revenues of $60 billion. They are the drivers of our economy, and because of prudent monetary and fiscal policies, we can grow the economy between 6%-6.5%, the global yardstick for a fast-growing economy. 

And that is why our economic managers are in celebratory mode. But that is why we now own the “Dutch disease.” We have not created a sustainable enterprise ecosystem, as did our neighbors – of an industrial-investment economy. And their common denominator cannot be overemphasized, foreign money and technology.

Unsurprisingly, it will take a generation before we see the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, we developed the penchant for the knee-jerk and quick fixes. Sadly, they can be counterproductive and can undermine the future. For example, we struggle to undo the negatives of the comprehensive agrarian reform that we can’t pursue economies of scale. In the meantime, Vietnam is more than glad to export rice to us.

One example is a microcosm of the lack of progress and clarity that foreign investors see in our country.

In fairness, because of the above growth rate, our debt to GDP is very healthy at 42% when it was once at 80%. That is why the blog said we could aggressively set a very aggressive post-COVID-19 “recovery” package.

The bottom line: Our economy isn’t on a trajectory similar to Vietnam and why they are poised to overtake Singapore. In other words, we’re near yet so far. And it appears we can’t wrap our head around that reality.

Consider: Despite our strong local economy – being service-consumption oriented – we still cannot generate the revenues to rapidly build the structure necessary for nation-building. And the underbelly of this strong local economy was exposed by COVID-19 and the lockdown that came with it.

Think of why we lag in infrastructure development, even the basics of water and electricity. And we must add that in higher education, we are the regional laggard too. And that is a very sorry state of affairs. We cannot turn that around overnight – especially when we consider our instincts and why ours is a culture of impunity. Higher education reflects our culture.

Our weaknesses are beyond the mediocre response to the pandemic. And while some LGUs did a better job, that still does not address the immense challenge we face in nation-building.

On the other hand, Vietnam’s exports (2019) are at a staggering $304.3-B compared to our $70.3-B. Their enormous export receipts negate their disadvantage in the local economy – which is our strength. Again because of OFW remittances and the BPO revenues.

As economists say, the multiplier effect of an export-driven, industrial-investment economy is far more significant than a local, service-consumption economy.

In other words, rapid economic development, as Singapore demonstrated impacts society beyond what we think is possible. The operative word being “rapid.” For example, Singapore is now more competitive compared to the US.

It is not a mystery when an enterprise creates a virtuous circle, an ecosystem that is sustainable. Consider: They started with foreign money and technology that gave them a leg up to produce world-class products and services.

And the outcome is for all to see, humongous export receipts. And as we see in China, the experience gives them the ability to progress and advance technology-wise. 

That is why the blog keeps plugging Vietnam. But we Pinoys can’t seem to recognize that we have our neighbors to benchmark.

What to do? Let’s engage in the war on poverty and drugs and terrorism. That is how out-of-step and archaic we are as a nation. 

In the meantime, COVID-19 added fuel to the fire. But then again, we live in a universe that is a 24/7, dynamic phenomenon. 

After disorder, reorder must follow.

Gising bayan!

“Here is a land in which a few are spectacularly rich while the masses remain abjectly poor. And where freedom and its blessings are a reality for a minority and an illusion for the many. Here is a land consecrated to democracy but run by an entrenched plutocracy, dedicated to equality but mired in an archaic system of caste. 

“But the fault was chiefly their own. Filipinos profess the love of country, but love themselves – individually – more.” [Ninoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs magazine, July 1968; Stanley Karnow, New York Times Magazine, “Cory Aquino’s Downhill Slide,” 19th Aug 1990.]

“Why independence, if the slaves of today will be the tyrants of tomorrow? Moreover, that they will be such is not to be doubted, for he who submits to tyranny loves it.” [We are ruled by Rizal’s ‘tyrants of tomorrow,’ Editorial, The Manila Times, 29th Dec 2015]

“True social reform has little to do with politics. To unmoor ourselves from the burdens of the past, we must be engaged in the act of continual and conscious self-renewal. All men are partially buried in the grave of custom. Even virtue is no longer such if it is stagnant.

“Change begins when we finally choose to examine critically and then recalibrate the ill-serving codes and conventions handed down to us, often unquestioned, by the past and its power structures. It is essentially an act of imagination first.” [David Henry Thoreau; American essayist, poet, and philosopher; 1817-1862]

“National prosperity is created, not inherited. It does not grow out of a country’s natural endowments, its labor pool, its interest rates, or its currency’s value, as classical economics insists. [A] nation’s competitiveness depends on the capacity of its industry to innovate and upgrade.” [The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael E. Porter, Harvard Business Review, March–April 1990]

“You have to have a dream, whether big or small. Then plan, focus, work hard, and be very determined to achieve your goals.” [Henry Sy Sr., Chairman Emeritus and Founder, SM Group (1924 - 2019)]

“Learning and innovation go hand in hand. The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” [William Pollard, 1911-1989, physicist-priest, Manhattan Project]

“Development is informed by a people’s worldview, cognitive capacity, values, moral development, self-identity, spirituality, and leadership . . .” [Frederic Laloux, Reinventing organizations, Nelson Parker, 2014]

“Now I know why Paul dared to speak of ‘the curse of the law’ (Galatians 3:13). Law reigns and discernment is unnecessary, which means there is little growth or change in such people. When you do not grow, you remain an infant.” [Faith and Science, Open to Change, Richard Rohr’s Daily Meditation, 23rd Oct 2017]

“As a major component for the education and reorientation of our people, mainstream media – their reporters, writers, photographers, columnists, and editors – have an obligation to this country . . .” [Era of documented irrelevance: Mainstream media, critics and protesters, Homobono A. Adaza, The Manila Times, 25th Nov 2015]