Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Stuck in our failed paradigm

But why?

Because we take for granted our caste system – that informs our instincts.

We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy that ours is a culture of impunity.

Are we still surprised why “populism” defines our politics?

Or why can’t we move from a “fixed mindset” to a “growth mindset”?

Because of our logical yet linear and incremental thinking paradigm?

For example, we can’t help but trumpet the mantra of a 6%-7%, or even 8%, GDP growth rate. Yet, we remain the regional laggard, overtaken by our neighbors one after the other.

And who pays the price – of abject poverty? Yet, we blame Juan de la Cruz: “tamad kasi.”

Why can’t a 6% or 7% or 8% GDP growth rate be our mantra? Of course, it will eventually make us a middle-income economy. But in the meantime, we are the laughingstock of our neighbors.

Why can’t we move away from a failed paradigm?

But why a failed paradigm?

Look at Russia. Tiny Singapore has zero natural resources yet is a wealthy nation, while Russia relies on oil with zero industry. Beyond oil, together with Ukraine, they are the world’s largest wheat producers.

Russia relies on its oil – and political patronage and oligarchy as in the Philippines.

Recall that Singapore’s debt ratio is over 100%. But it is irrelevant because they have no external debt.

“Singapore issues government securities to assist its national pension fund. And its GDP per capita is $93,400, even greater than that of the US ($60,200).

“Moreover, Singapore allots 173.3% of its GDP to export goods and services while we do 31%.”

On the other hand, “Because we are a consumption economy, household consumption accounts for 73.5% of our GDP end-use. Compare that to 49% for Thailand and 55% in the case of Malaysia.

“We allocate 31% for export initiatives, while Thailand puts 68% and Malaysia 71%.

“Unsurprisingly, the Philippine industry contributes a low-31% to GDP, against Thailand’s 36% and Malaysia’s 38%.

“That explains why the exports of these countries are 3.3 times in the case of Thailand and 2.6 times for Malaysia.

“Finally, where it hits Juan de la Cruz, Thailand’s GDP per capita is 2.2 times that of the Philippines, and Malaysia’s is 3.3 times.”

Recall why the blog often raises the distinctions between “analysis and analytics.”

With due respect to our economic managers, analysis per se can miss the “analytics.”

Why? Because “analytics” is forward, lateral, and creative thinking. It is beyond logical yet linear and incremental thinking.

For example, why can’t we get going with Arangkada or AmBisyon?

We don’t benchmark against success models like Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Instead of trumpeting a 6%-7% GDP growth rate, we must raise our allocation of 31% to export goods and services closer to our neighbors: Thailand = 68%, Malaysia = 71%, Singapore =173.3%.

Of course, we cannot wave a magic wand to do that. But CREATE nor SIPP will neither get us there. But how come we are celebrating our tax-making policies?

Because of our caste system, we in the Philippine elite know best – even when our fiscal and monetary policies have left us the regional laggard.

It’s even laughable that we think we can build 21st-century technology from the ground up. Or even a military that will protect us from foreign invasion.

Recall that the blog keeps referencing the story of creation and the character of this universe, i.e., dynamism and interdependence.

We need a dynamic paradigm that respects the interdependence of freedom-loving people. As Lee and Mahathir put it bluntly to Deng, “Beg for Western money and technology.”

The bottom line: Our failed paradigm failed us in our nation-building pursuits as evidenced by agriculture and industry – and thus, Juan de la Cruz suffers from abject poverty.

Recall that the blog raised the challenge to the next president: To make a call to Bill Gates, the CEO of Samsung and Apple, and Warren Buffett. The Philippines is open for business. What must we do for you to invest as much in the Philippines as you would do elsewhere?

That is how to get beyond our penchant for “analysis” yet miss the “analytics.”

“Analytics” is forward, lateral, and creative thinking. It is beyond logical yet linear and incremental thinking.

Gising bayan!

No comments:

Post a Comment