How many times should we fall into the “insanity” trap?

“Insanity is doing the same thing “over and over again” and expecting different results,” said Einstein. And we quote him all the time.

Then consider: Where are we with AmBisyon? Or with Arangkada? What happened to the manufacturing uptick we bragged about in 2014?

Or the scores of industry road maps that we celebrated?

Let’s stop and ask ourselves how different we are approaching our “kuro-kuro” – our efforts to right the Philippine ship.

When friends and relatives asked me what I thought – being an expatriate for decades – about our floundering ship, I started engaging the media. And it didn’t require much digging. Come early next year, and the blog will be 14 years old.

Vietnam had already overtaken us in FDIs even if their GDP was still a fraction of PH. In other words, given our dependence on OFW remittances, it was clear then that we were a disaster waiting to happen. What do we keep missing? See below; context is one of the three elements of cognitive development beyond dualism or binary thinking and multiplicity.

Unsurprisingly, we can’t distinguish between “analysis” and “analytics.” The former is logical yet linear and incremental, while the latter zooms out – is forward, lateral and creative thinking. It does not accept that “the surgery was successful, but the patient died.”

Relate that to how proudly we embraced our GDP growth rate of 6%-7% over a decade, yet Juan de la Cruz continues to suffer from abject poverty – and even learning poverty.

How could we be under the illusion that everything was fine and dandy? We had GMA as president and took comfort that she was an economist. Another economist followed her in PNoy.

Don’t we recognize that we can’t run this country? In the private sector, no ifs and buts — heads roll when they must.

Consider: The “context” is that Juan de la Cruz is an object of charity – not that we in the Philippine elite and chattering classes are prosperous.

And that is after AmBisyon, Arangkada, and the scores of industry road maps. And even after the much-celebrated “manufacturing uptick.”

Then add the pandemic and the turmoil – from the global economic slowdown to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the 6th Jan Commission on the attack on the Capitol to the threat of nuclear war to the potential China invasion of Taiwan – the world faces.

In other words, what kind of a disaster are we waiting for before we lift a finger?

The bottom line: We are [cognitively] challenged because we lack the development experience of our neighbors. Sadly, we can’t wrap our heads around our shortcomings because of inexperience.

Here’s a quote from an earlier posting: You cannot solve a problem you do not comprehend.

That’s from Richard Rumelt, the Harry and Elsa Kunin Professor of Business and Society at the UCLA Anderson School of Management; adapted from his books (a) Good Strategy/Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters and (b) “The Crux: How Leaders Become Strategists.”

As the blog submits, we are floundering because (a) we are a rudderless ship and (b) we suffer from our version of the “Dutch disease.”

The excellent news is that we are not alone in our inability to comprehend. Look at the UK.

We keep debating democracy and education – e.g., even America faces an education crisis – but they are not drivers of rapid economic expansion as we saw in our neighbors. They are enablers but not drivers. But because of inexperience, we can’t distinguish the two.

And given our crab mentality – apart from our ivory tower influence – we can’t get a handle on Pareto – the “vital few versus the trivial many.” It is to prioritize, not to forego critical initiatives. Sadly, inexperience can’t overcome the said barriers.

If we understood strategy, as we like to believe we do, we would not fall flat on our faces with AmBisyon or Arangkada or the scores of industry road maps. They are like dissertations, not real-world stuff.

Context. Context. Context.

“All solutions to problems must have reasons and be viewed within a specific context. The basis for this stage [relativism] is to challenge every issue because everything is contextual.”

Again, let’s borrow from an earlier posting: “Unsurprisingly, on the one hand, we’re stuck with our version of the Dutch disease courtesy of the over $50 billion generated by the OFW remittances and call centers. And on the other, we have no investment-industrial base to be competitive export-wise.

“Preeminent economist Ciel Habito captured why Juan de la Cruz suffers abject poverty and learning poverty. And why the Ramon Ang Bulacan initiative must be our rallying cry to generate $200 billion in exports.”

In the meantime, we spend an inordinate amount of time on our “kuro-kuro” addressing symptoms – not the crux of why Juan de la Cruz suffers from abject poverty and learning poverty.

Recall that we championed CARL (comprehensive agrarian reform), the OFW phenomenon, call centers, and 4Ps because we see poverty and jobs as the two sides of the same coin.

Now we want to add other industries to champion.

On the other hand, what will an incremental $200 billion in exports do? Don’t we know how Vietnam overtook us with two export drivers, i.e., Samsung and Apple, despite our over 300 export processing zones — an outcome of our traditional fiscal initiatives?

That will add tons to our tax revenues much faster than the 6%-7% GDP growth we like to celebrate – and fund our pet projects like education and whatever.

Sadly, our ivory tower influence can’t figure that out.

Surprise, surprise; why can’t we figure out how the Asian Tigers, then China, and more recently Vietnam left us in the dust?

In other words, we can’t figure out Pareto – the “vital few versus the trivial many.”

How many times should we fall into the “insanity” trap?

“Insanity is doing the same thing “over and over again” and expecting different results,” said Einstein. And we quote him all the time.

Then consider: Where are we with AmBisyon? Or with Arangkada? What happened to the manufacturing uptick we bragged about in 2014?

Or the scores of industry road maps that we celebrated?

Let’s stop and ask ourselves how different we are approaching our “kuro-kuro” – our efforts to right the Philippine ship.

But will our instincts keep standing in the way? 

We are parochial and insular. We value hierarchy and paternalism and rely on political patronage and oligarchy; ours is a culture of impunity.

Gising bayan!